Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Buying When It's "Wrong"

Tuesday was an interesting day to say the least!

Media Coverage of Things Apple is Worth More Than
I got a note this morning from Josh Brown telling me that CNBC was looking to do a segment on the Tumblr we co-author, Things Apple is Worth More Than. Now maybe you all out there are extreme pros but I was as excited as I could be. The clip was aired at 2:15 today and here it is for review:

It's a little strange to see things you have worked on shown on television. Josh highlighted the segment today as well (Apple-Zilla!) and in the clip he makes some good points on why it is useful to keep in mind how big Apple is. Apple is probably the most innovative and successful company in the history of the world, and the Apple Tumblr tries to put that success in a perspective that will boggle the mind.

Thank you Josh for the great opportunity.

Buying When It's "Wrong"
You know it has happened to you. Something happens and it's wrong. It feels wrong and you know it's wrong. Still, no harm has been done and in a cosmic sense of things it's right.

Maybe one of those rare times the cashier rings you up, takes your cash to make change and BOOM, you get an extra buck or more back. It's wrong, sure it is. But how many times have you over paid? How many times have you lost change in the sofa? Maybe it is a small measure of payback. Perhaps on a food run you leave the drive through window and discover you got an extra order of fries (cool) or an extra Big Mac (Epic WIN!) in your sack of food. That too is wrong, but again how many short changed orders have you had to endure over time? Both are wrong, but you deal with it.

I bring this up because the current market rally has felt all "wrong" since the beginning in December. The laundry list is long and distinguished and most participants are well aware of the major concerns. As of late we have to throw in market indices that are running into uncharted territory. It all feels so wrong.

Yet the market goes up and individual stocks continue to perform well.

Since December 20, 2011 the SPX has moved higher by more than 10% and the whole way most or all of the following has been true:
-Greece continues towards some kind of default
-Euro nation debt is still a monster problem
-Earnings have been on the lower end of estimates
-Bonds are screaming a large disconnect from equities
-China is unclear
-Volume has been very low
-As of late the major indices are higher than anytime since 2008, before the financial crisis
All this and more.

Yet stocks are moving. Individual set ups are numerous and finally are showing follow through. Rotation and pauses have been enough to keep things from overheating. It's almost sinister in the way things have been going. And it feels wrong.

But you have to deal with it. As long as I am finding set ups that are working I am going to be trading long even though it feels wrong. At some point the law of large numbers, buyer exhaustion, or some other factor is going to put the brakes on this market. At that point, feeling "wrong" about buying stocks will be felt in kind. Until then, take the extra buck or Big Mac and enjoy the gift. While it lasts.

Have a good night.


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