Monday, February 28, 2011

Throttle Linkage

I stayed up too late working last night and watching the Oscars so I am a bit tired. A recap and then some links from today's reads are on tap.

Market Operations
Using the PPT and the screening tools provided there, I came across some good looking items last night and I figure why not take them for a run? I usually do not like to have more than 3 open positions at a time, but I liked all these stocks for various reasons.

In the trading account I have:
And last night I added:
MFB (yes the bra maker!)
Full disclosure: I may be responsible for 10% of BUD sales!

I still hold a little OMEX from years ago as well.

It is the first day of the month tomorrow so that usually means a huge up day for stocks.

Throttle Linkage
Some reading material.

Got Nickels?
It was a double blast of nickel mania today!

Kid Dynamite explains some of the logistics behind an arbitrage play on the US nickel, which has monetary value of 5 cents, but a metal content value of 7 cents!:
If I Had a Nickel...

Over at Credit Bubble Stocks we are hit again with a bag of nickels:
Silverbugs, Why Don't You Buy Nickels Instead? (SLV)

Now any serious metal watcher has known about this relationship for a long time. Instead of looking at it through the lens of grabbing a ton of nickels, why not talk about how the debasement of money and the vast credit/debt bubble results is such a silly thing as a nickel being worth 7 cents. I will stick with pre-1965 dimes and quarters myself:

90% silver.

Hot New Venture Fund
Josh Brown was working all weekend so don't miss this great post:
Top 10 Names for JPMorgan’s Venture Fund
JP Morgan is starting a new venture fund aimed at hot new social media names. Perfect timing. Josh suggests some names for the new fund. Click over for the list but an instant classic was born:
That's funny I don't care who you are.

Advertising I May Actually Look At
One of my biggest issues with Facebook/Twitter/whatever is that I do not even see ads online because I block them out. I bet you do too. Here is a new way of advertising that may catch my interest though (via Geekologie):

Sure to get "eyeballs" but will it translate to sales? Sorry, could not help it!

Have a good night.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Must See Video

Must See Video
I am working on some screens and position reviews but I wanted to put this out for all to see. Some lucky buggers got to see a Space Shuttle launch from their passenger airplane! This is so cool I just don't even know what to say:


I will update later with Oscar news and some stocks I may be going with this week. If anyone is around.

Melissa Leo has won for best supporting actress (The Fighter), and yes Christian Bale WON!!! Sometimes things do go right! I am very pleased.

Stocks on final review:

I am in on:
small gamble on AIXG

Have a good night.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Christian Bale for the Oscar

The 83rd Academy Awards
I love films, that's no shocker. What may surprise is that I love the Academy Awards show! I watch it every year. This year as in some years past I have a clear horse in the race: Christian Bale for his supporting actor role in the film "The Fighter".

Bale's perfromance is memorable to say the least. The transformation into Dickie Ecklund is 100%. You will have to see the film for yourself, but in my opinion one of the best acting performances ever. It was that good.

If Bale does not win it will be a travesty on the level of Paul Newman not winning for best supporting actor in "Road to Perdition" (he was beaten by Chris Cooper).

Because "The Fighter" is so new a film, there are almost no clips of it on YouTube. Here is the main trailer:

And here is a nice clip of Bale and Mark Wahlberg in a great scene from the film:

Very nice.

The film covers the Micky Ward vs Alfonso Sanchez fight and the film uses the original HBO commentary which was a great touch. The real fight ended just as Dickie said to do it, with a crushing left hook to the liver that finished Sanchez. Watch the 7th round as it looks like Sanchez has the lights turned out in a spilt second:

Trust me, a body shot like that is 10 times more painful than a knockout shot to the jaw.

Come on Academy, make the right choice!

Have a good night.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Friday Night Block Party

3 inches of snow and then 1.5 inches of rain that would have been another 14 inches of snow today. Disaster averted. Someday, this winter has to end. July maybe?

End of the Work Week
My real day job went well this week and I finished four DNA constructs that were problematic the last two weeks. Always good to get rid of the problem projects.

Market wise I am tapped out and in the mood for a fun night so this will be a quick note. I went in on HSY and DAN this morning and I am looking for a move up next week.

I do hope you all know that the Jesse Livermore quote I posted last night was made up?

Friday Night Block Party
I saw way too many cool things this week so off to the good stuff.

Dog Training Tip
Last weekend I reviewed killer dog treats made by Lose a Finger. After a week of using the slow smoked brisket balls here is what I can say. At first it was annoying as my pug dog Norman was obsessed with the things. He was following me around trying to get extra treats so I had to lay down the law. He figured things out (he is slow, as are all dogs, they are not cats after all!) and now he will do whatever I want him to for another treat! At this point the dog will bark out scenes from Hamlet for another brisket ball. If you need to train your dog, check these things out.

Gallium: Room Temperature Melting Metal
Gallium is a solid at room temp, but just over that it will melt. Freak your friends out when they are over for tea with this trick:

You could really mess with them and go all "The Matrix" and say 'there is no spoon' as you do this.

Physician, Heal Thyself
Over at iO9 they have a great list of 10 scientists that experimented on themselves. Click on over for the other 9, but here is one:
7. Stubbins Ffirth
Doctor Ffirth shows that some research needs not only guts, but grueling dedication and strong stomach. To prove that yellow fever was not contagious. Stubbins poured vomit from a yellow fever patient on cuts on his arms. Then he poured it on his eyes. Then in his mouth, ingesting straight from the patient. Then he moved on to other fluids. He never got sick, but he proved something that turned out to be false. Yellow fever is contagious, but only through blood.

Zoom in on a Moon
I am not talking about Google Earth you perverts looking at unsuspecting ladies! I must have burned a few hours this week using this cool tool that allows you to zoom way in on the Earth's Moon:
Nearside Spectacular
Looking at the craters and other features is amazing. Have fun.

Japanese Anime
Graph Jam breaks it down for us:
funny graphs - You Missed the 'Hair' Slice
see more Funny Graphs

Film Clips
Cinema you may or may have not seen.

A film with so many great scenes, "Joe Versus the Volcano" is a favorite of mine:

This is so sick but you know you love this one from "Misery":


Rock Blogging
Keeping the free world rocking on Friday since 2007.

I was reading this post over at soon to be published author (congratulations again!) Jennifer Hillier's site and I thought of Iron Maiden's "Moonchild" so here it is:

Love that tune.

OMG! I had no idea there was a music video for "The Neverending Story"! By Limahl:

Klo should like that one! That dude looks high on more than just life though.

How about "Still of the Night"? Not the Whitesnake song! Here are The Five Satins:

So smooth!

Sometimes it is just Pat Benatar time. Here is a live rehearsal of a "Promises in the Dark" show sure to please:

Awesome, just lights out. A rehearsal for crying out loud.

Two to go, two songs left. Try not to get too sad.

Not quite under the 1 year rule, but close! Here is Dokken's classic "Alone Again":

Lighters OUT!

Last call.

Closing the show with "Mr. Crowley" from the Tribute album. Don't bug me, I wanted to hear it:

Randy Rhoads is the man.

Have a good night.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Referee Stops the Fight!

I am looking at snow in the morning then a move to all rain for about 2 inches of precipitation! Can you say New England flood? Nasty.

Tomorrow is Friday so get those requests in! I do music, film, books, science, and anything else you can think of. As of late I am reminded of a line from the film "Major League":
In case you haven't noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven't,....
Not many folks stopping in. What can you do.

Referee Stops the Fight!
"When you start comparing apples with peaches, you are not speculating, you are in the lemonade business"
-Famous Investor Jesse Lauriston Livermore

If the markets were a boxing contest the referee would have stopped the fight today. Wild gyrations and crazy action result in a mess where everyone is confused. I warned last night on plowing into oil and metals and today that was evident. Longer term, things may well work out (especially the metals!), but why join a mad crowd at an Best Buy Christmas early open ceremony?

For a great metals read, see Jesse (the other one) at the Cafe:
Silver Market Hit Hard With Bear Raid - The Infamous Dr. Evil Strategy

For oil, what can I say when a policy advisor advises intervention in Saudi Arabia should things get out of hand to keep the oil flowing:
Charles Krauthammer: All Hell Could Break Loose In The Middle East After March 11
Energy. Cheap Energy. Your I-whatever's need it, your Twitter accounts depend on it, your Facebook addictions demand it, your car cannot live without it. Now, how do you want to pay? Cash or intervention via military force?

For a thought experiment, check out Leigh Drogen's great essay:
Dictators Don’t Have Perfect Information
I left a comment saying "Great Points" but reading the item I was struck how our own Treasury and FED are the EXACT SAME THING Mr. Drogen wonderfully explains yet he does not mention them.

I had some more stuff, but I have some work to do.

Added: Going into the buzz saw with HSY and DAN.

Have a good night.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Take a Time Out

Take a Time Out
After the quiet of the past few months I guess a little crazy was due for a visit. No, not your old Auntie stopping in, but a schizo market all over the place.

There is so much going on right now I cannot even pick a place to start. Some things to keep in mind for longer term planning:
-FED member Hoenig put to words many of the structural problems now embedded in our system via FED intervention. I know it sounds crazy but at some point the FED will have to exit the markets. What will that look like?
-Saudi Arabia pulls a Bahrain and hands out big cash money to the little people. Uh oh.
-President Obama's speech on the Libya issue was about as weak as could be. Big miss.
-For a two day downdraft the run to Treasuries and the dollar was no place to be found. Write this one down if it is not an outlier going forward.

In the near term I am seeing many either:
-Wanting to really load up and buy the crap out of this dip
-Wanting to get into cash to plow into metals and oil

I was stopped out on all positions for my trading account. COCO (+3.9%), PRSP (+2.3%) and AMRC (-9.6%) are all closed. For my first 8 trades of the year I am 7 wins and one loss. I felt the itch to get involved again tonight, but what I did was take a time out. It was a good idea.

I am a long term gold and silver bull (long physical of both in my core holdings since a long time ago) so you know I am not anti metals. I have traded metals and metal miners for a long time and what I am seeing right now is not jumping out at me as a time to get more involved. Silver plays especially are all hitting the triple top area and only SLV (most closely mirrors physical) has made the big breakout. Gold has lagged silver here for a bit, and plenty of stalwart gold miners are still looking poor to me (KGC for one). In short, metals are harsh and they will break your heart short term. Be careful out there.

Energy as well looks too aggressive and I don't think oil can get to $140 this time. The last run up had the peak credit bubble behind it for gas money, this time no one has a job or home equity.

I do not give investment advice here, clearly! I just offer my take on things. What I am going to do is wait until tomorrow night to do some work on screens based on a couple of scenarios:
-Civil unrest in various places get better, QE3 talk hits the weekend discussion rounds, overall more quite environment
-All hell breaks loose
On Monday I will review market action against what positions I may want to enter and have at it, or maybe not if that makes more sense. I am cautious by nature.

I know, I am not making any real concrete near term prediction here. I simply do not have enough information to do that and I fail to see how anyone else could either in this mess. Offer any ideas in the comments section on what you are thinking about or looking at.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Bulls Stub a Hoof

Home a bit late tonight so just a few thoughts.

Now I am Worried
This has me worried tonight. From Reuters:
IMF: World Economy Can Survive Oil Price Surge for Now
The IMF has about the same predictive ability of the US Federal Reserve. It is reasonable to panic now, HA!

How Much Would You Pay for Democracy?
I hesitate to write this section because I am not going to get into policy debates or philosophical arguments about this here. Still, I was thinking this today so here goes.

It has been US (amongst plenty of others) policy to support dictators or oppressive regimes in the oil rich nations. The reasons for this are many, but number one is to keep oil prices lower than they otherwise might be. While it is both scary and refreshing to see revolts by the small people in these nations (they do not see much of the oil pie at all) you have to ask yourself question:
How much will I pay for democracy?
If governments become formed that really hand out the oil revenue among the people, they are going to want more of it. This could raise oil prices which will affect the cost of every single thing you buy one way or the other. New leaders may walk from OPEC and their oil price controls. I have no idea what will happen. Is there a point, say gas at $6 a gallon, that you might think democracy may be too expensive? Food for thought.

Market Meltdown or just a Blip?
I am going to admit it up front, I was loving watching the more bearish bloggers and writers get excited today. In what seems like a move up without end, a strong volume sell off was just what a doom and gloomer was looking for. It was refreshing to see a little fear and thinking going on out there for once.

Still, fact is the move down results in just getting the indices to the 20 Day Moving Average! Trader Mark had this chart up:

And offered this:
Finally an exciting day.... this is only the second episode (Egypt being the other) where the S&P 500 has retraced to the 20 day moving average since Thanksgiving. Let's see what the dip buyers do.

So is this the bulls stubbing a hoof, or the start of a larger move down? I will need to see the weeks action to make a better guess. What is true is that many individual names were damaged today, some very badly. If the broad indices start running back up quickly the stocks leading the way may not be the same hot names that ran since last summer.

For a great big picture look at what's going on, head on over to Ultra Trading's post today. Sample:
If this market is going to turn, don't think the dip buyers will give up without a fight. A majority of traders and investors have made money for two years by literally doing nothing but holding stocks. It was an easy way to make money and they won't give up without a fight. They will pour money into any weakness as they have been conditioned. They will focus on the Bernanke put which in reality expires soon unless QE3 is hinted at in the next few weeks.
No head over and read the whole thing.

Have a good night.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Technical Analysis: The Projectile Vomit Pattern

Today was a busy day. The garage was the culprit. First the light bulb blew out on the garage door opener so that had to be switched out. Then as I went back into the house, the door knob on the garage door just came off! Quality stuff. I went to Lowes for a new one and I have already installed the replacement.

On Risk Management
Silver is blowing up. Libya is falling apart but not before firing on protest marchers. Bahrain is in serious flux. Egypt is in turmoil. Oil is flying over $100 a barrel. Iran must be sick of being ignored by now. South Korean banks are having issues. Euro debt problems continue coming back like an annoying family member. In short, it may be a good time to check your own risk management profile. While none of this matters at some point it might. Don't get caught sleeping.

Technical Analysis: The Projectile Vomit Pattern
It is Monday night so I will be off to run screens and find some new ideas for the coming week trades. In light of how nuts things are right now, I will probably stay with what I have as of now and not buy new spots until I get a feel for how the week may go.

I wanted to show a technical analysis pattern I like to play when I find it; the projectile vomit pattern (the PVP). In the never ending melt up Bernank market this one is usually good for a nice pop. For an example I will use a stock I am currently long, PRSP (Prosperity Bancshares).

The PVP is noticed when a stock runs down to it's 50 day moving average and basically pukes forcefully and propels itself away from that level. The next time the 50 MDA is approached, an entry point is available for a trade. By definition you will be playing the second (or third, fourth) time this happens. The original move may be huge or medium (I don't bother with small moves) and subsequent replays of this pattern will usually be smaller in size. I am sure there are really cool names for this stuff and that it is a well known thing, but this is how I refer to it. On to the example.

Here is a Finviz Chart for PRSP. It is a daily chart going back to June 2010 (click any image for larger view):

Note that in November 2010 the 50 MDA was hit and the stock took off angry at that point. Without the lines, it is a bit more pronounced:

A Yahoo chart with just the 50 MDA plotted:

So we are looking for a stock that has shown the reaction to the 50 MDA as such:

PRSP came up on a screen of mine back around February 13 on an institutional volume screen. Looking over the chart, I saw the PVP occur back in November. What you need to have happen then is for a stock to actually go DOWN in this market to make another run at the 50 MDA. It is pretty rare these days. PRSP made the grade, just a little above the 50 MDA but close enough for a shot.

I bought in at $40.20 on February 14. The stock now has shown an echo of the November PVP and is now at $42.20 (+5%). This could still run higher and now this little ticker has the added fun of looking at a big double top at about $42! Should the PVP hold and a break of that double top holds, this thing could run. Of course it may well be turned back and go lower. That's life but this position has my interest.

I will be back later if I find anything worthwhile in my screens.

Have a good night.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Product Reviews

Saw a great film and discovered a new dog treat this weekend!

Film Review
I had mixed feelings about going to see the film "The Fighter". Being from Lowell and a huge boxing fan I know all about Mickey Ward and his boxing history. I was worried Lowell might come off looking like a bad city as well. I can say the film was outstanding! I had no idea how difficult things were for Ward and how his family was so involved with his career. The film features my old trainer Arthur Ramalho as well though he does not speak in the film, too funny.

I suggest you see this film and if Christian Bale does not win the Oscar for best Supporting Actor the whole thing is a sham. Bale gives a once in a lifetime performance that is one of the best acting displays I have ever seen.

Lose a Finger Dog Treats
Fellow Big Steel Keg user BoatnBBQ has started his very own small business. I stopped in to Lose a Finger and figured I would try out some of the all natural dog treats Boat makes using slow smoked left overs from the keg.

I ordered the bacon and cheddar, crunchy peanut butter, and slow smoked brisket flavors to try out on the Pug dog Norman. The product was shipped fast and here they are:

Instead of a laundry list of funky ingredients you need to be a chemist to understand, here is the ingredient label for the brisket balls:
-Whole wheat flour
-Baking powder
-Slow smoked brisket
That's it. No preservatives and no weird chemical binders or filler.

Of course the real test is how the dog likes them. Norman is a pug dog who are not exactly known for being picky eaters. I cut open the bag of brisket balls and the dog started sniffing the air aggressively. I started him off with one and he rolled it on the floor for a second, then swallowed it down. When I took out a second one he went into a perfect sitting position waiting for the treat! This dog was hooked!

Every time I go into the kitchen now the dog follows me in hoping for another treat ball. He stares at the cabinet where they are kept as well. Safe to say he is a big fan.

Not to be outdone, the cat seems to be very interested in the treats as well but my cat Jessie is already getting huge so I did not give her any! Ha ha cat, too bad. Here are the kids trying to grab a brisket ball:

The pug fully endorses the product.

$10 will get you a full 16 ounce bag of treats. There are smaller sizes as well. In the pet stores up here I always see $15 dog biscuits made with froofy stuff like tofu, rice, and various granola. That is all well and good, but any real dog wants a hardy treat and these fit the bill. If you are interested swing on by the Lose a Finger site and try some out. I congratulate Boat and his wife on starting a small business and wish them well.

Disclosure: I have no affiliation with this company; I paid in full for the treats I have; I was not solicited or asked for this review.

Ok, off to watch the Daytona 500. Harvick's all black #29 will be my car today.

Have a good night.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Whistle Louder

Three day weekend ahead! Perfect timing. The wife wants to see "The Fighter" this weekend. I guess I do too but as I grew up in Lowell I wonder how bad or good it will look? At least the scenery will be familiar! When I was into boxing, Mickey Ward would come to my gym and spar with the good fighters sometimes and I saw him often at the little store I used to work at.

Hate to Ruin the Good Time
I hate to ruin the good time everyone is having as of late, but the world is getting scary. I am not going to debate whether the economy is "good" or "bad" as it matters little at this point. Minds have been made up that devouring assets all of kinds is necessary at any price and the voracious appetite of speculation must be fed constantly so the fire does not go out. While seeing prices of stuff go parabolic is good if you own them (and hope to sell them to someone else) one should not totally be blind to what such behavior results in. I know every person in the world will "get out" at exactly the right moment. Certainly every blogger and financial writer will be out at the top and tell us all 6 months later. Count on it.

Today on Wikipedia (yes I know I have a problem!) I was reading about "The Dust Bowl". You can check it out at the link, but it was the pictures that jumped out at me and made me want to write this section. First, the pictures:

From Wiki:
The phenomenon was caused by severe drought coupled with decades of extensive farming without crop rotation, fallow fields, cover crops or other techniques to prevent erosion. Deep plowing of the virgin topsoil of the Great Plains had displaced the natural deep-rooted grasses that normally kept the soil in place and trapped moisture even during periods of drought and high winds.

I think that the gorging on stocks since the later 1990's into the Tech bust, followed by a renewed orgy of speculative fervor in the mid to later 2000's and now the unabashed gluttony of equity moonshots have damaged the underlying structure of the system. 3 bubbles in about 10 years (give or take) have stripped the business cycle of any power to allocate capital; now it is either ALL allocated or not at all with no regard to anything other than the action of motion.

In this sense the roots of the system are now gone. I get the feeling that as speculative fervor runs rampant (like locusts) devouring anything and everything it can, an economic Dust Bowl will be the result. Just a thought. Now go buy stocks!

Note: Readers may wonder why I write this as I have been trading stocks this year and that is 100% fair. Long time readers know where I stand on the macro level (remember macro?) and I would hope people understand the reasons why I have been a bit active in markets.

Rattling a Silver Bull
As a long time lover of silver, today has me unsettled and maybe a touch worried. How is this for a triple goocher:
-Margin requirement hike (to 50%)
-Options Expiration
-Gold not really moving while silver rolls
All three? In 10 years of watching silver I have seen one of these at times but not all three at once. We are in no man's land.

Friday Night Entertainment
Lifting spirits since 2007.

Real Science
In a classic science experiment, a hot lady wears a small camera on her behind to answer the question "Do men stare at women's butts?" The results are stunning I tell you (via Geekologie):

Best ones are when the guys are staring and their girlfriends are like "What's your problem!". Good stuff.

Had to be done, this is out there:
demotivational posters - PARTYING WITH GRANDMA
see more Very Demotivational

Film Clips
Nobody seems to like "Did You Know" so a shorter post tonight.

A "new classic" is "Road to Perdition". In a film with so many moving scenes, it is hard to pick one. From last weeks contest (which no one entered, you could have an ounce of silver right by now) here is 'I'm glad it's you':

Cannot be beat.

Maybe you have not seen "Capricorn One" but you should:

It's OJ!

Rock Blogging
Music for the masses.

Reader Gawains wanted to hear David Essex and "Rock On" and I do love the tune:

I think YouTube should be valued at over 200 Billion (beat ya Mr. Drogen) as the wonders never cease. How about some live Tears for Fears doing "Shout" live in 2006!:

I like it.

A kind of newer tune that I like is "Push" by Matchbox 20:

Great live performance of "Zombie" by The Cranberries:


Two songs left. First, intermission!

In response to Mark's Stag-E Coach idea and wagon wheels, I submit this:

That is soooooo old school you don't even know!

Ok, back to the last tunes.

Sick as all get out! In case Downtown Josh Brown stops by anymore, this is for you man! Live rock out show with Public Enemy and Anthrax doing "Bring the Noise":

That was so great I just don't know. In case that was too loud and fast, here is the studio version.

Last call! Get a girl, a beer and whatever else gets her going on Friday night!

Gotta go with the flow and stay all live shows!

I cannot pick so you all get two to close.

Bon Jovi and "Runaway" from way back in 1984:

As well as Poison with "Fallen Angel":

I may just love this Friday post best.

....Because I do, here is a bonus! Skid Row with "18 and Life" live of course:

Wow, love it.

Have a good night.

Thursday, February 17, 2011


Just one of those days with too much going on. Quick hits.

My wife had a second interview for the kind of job she has been wanting for a long time. It went very well and I am so hopeful she gets this position. I know it's goofy, but if anyone wants to throw a little hope for my wife's prospects for the job this way, I would welcome them. It is a perfect fit and a real leg up.

It was super busy at real work today, so that added to it all.

Where to start?

Earnings Lotto
I held AMRC for earnings lotto today for two reasons. One, it is a very small position. Two, I wanted to play! I can say it was wild waiting for the wires to show the numbers then see market reaction. Well, both sucked. How a company has interest rate issues in a ZIRP world (anyone explain that one??) I have no idea but that thing gapped down 12% plus at the open. I had no stops set so I was like "well, it's not 20%!" and stopped looking at it. By days end, AMRC was down a whopping 4% and I am down 6% on the position. What a ride. I will hold for a dead cat bounce but I am done with AMRC. I missed this call (strange pattern I had seen that would either be very good or very bad) so I made a lotto bet. I lost. It happens.

Stellar Solars
I exited my two solar stock positions before lunch today:
JASO +9.2%
YGE +7.3%
These two were large positions and I am not playing earnings lotto with things in size. Thanks go to chessNwine for the scalped picks, nice call!

I am still holding COCO and PRSP, both up around 3.5% and watching.

What Else?
Did you all see that the Stardust program caught amazing pictures of another comet? So wild.

Ok, I am done.

Have a good night.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Quotable Wednesday

I am running way late tonight so just a few items I found today.

In Communist China, Data Not Needed to be Seen by You
I wrote the other night about China changing their basket of weightings for the CPI as food prices are making it run too hot. I read around and saw that many felt lowering the food component made sense, as China is a maturing as a society and thus food becomes a lower part of the basket. I get the logic, but seems to me like this could have been done 3 years ago, or three years from now. Why right this very minute when prices are rolling higher? Exactly.

Not one to learn from my own mistakes, I saw today that China will now scrap a national housing price index that is closely watched because, well they did not say but I think you can guess. As a society matures they use less housing and all after or something. In any case, here is Trader Mark's take:
As the world leaders, other countries look up to us. We have taught them well... the Chinese are getting very inconvenienced by the data coming out of their property index reports. Now let's be honest, just about anything coming out of China has to be taken with a dump truck worth of salt, unless you are a CNBC commentator. Or HFT computer which must react to data in 1/4000th of a second. So in no way am I implying this report was very accurate.... even with the best of intentions trying to measure a country so vast, with such variances in development would be difficult. But it was watched by both the masses of people (who apparently were getting frustrated with what they saw) and outside observers, considering the genesis of the Chinese economy is "property building".

Solution to a report where you don't like the answers?

No more report. That will teach the statisticians to put out data the central command does not like.

Limited Attention Spans
Monopoly Live gets a special treatment by Kid Dynamite today. The new game uses, what else, automated game runner so you don't have to be too involved in the game. Nice. Here is Dynamite letting it rip:
Oy vey – indeed – because American ingenuity, financial awareness and reinforcing capitalism would be terrible things to teach our children these days. (Sarcasm alert again!) Monopoly Live is indeed perfect for our times – press a button and watch as things are done for you. You don’t even need to strain yourself rolling the dice. What will the kids do when they Mighty Tower runs out of batteries or malfunctions? Complain about it on Facebook I guess…

-KD (Angry Old Man – all of 34 years old)

I have been saying this sort of thing for a long time.

Be the Burger, not the Bun
Over at iBankCoin, The Fly has the leading "quote of the year" candidate going in my book. Here he is:
The only logical thing to do, when faced with such egregious forms of “non-inflation,” is to milk the farmer, ahead of the planting season. Farmers will be spending money like rappers this spring. Count on that. Just going off the back of a napkin here, I reckon the shares of AGU, MOS, DE, CF, TEX, CAT, BG, MON, ANDE, LNN, VMI, just to name a few, are going a lot higher. Ya’ll fuckers need to recognize this shit right here and stop thinking you are outside the bun. You stupid motherfuckers: you are the bun and Bernanke is hungry for some burger. All of you are simply afterthoughts in the big scheme of things.

Market News
I played some names on Monday, here is where I sit:
JASO +8%
YGE +7%
COCO +3.7%
PRSP +4%
I am looking to unload JASO and YGE ahead of earnings lotto on Friday. COCO is doing just ok. PRSP looks like it may run a bit.

I have decided to play earnings lotto with AMRC tomorrow! Wish me luck, but you know these things tend to end badly.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Ever Lost a Hero?

Something along a different line for tonight.

Ever Lost a Hero?
Sometimes you read a story that is able to capture a feeling or thought you have had for a long time but could never put into words or even a complete thought. Today I came across and article at that almost had me in a breakdown mode at work it hit so hard. This post will be about NASCAR's Dale Earnhardt and while I do understand most find NASCAR boring, that really in only on the periphery of what I am going to write about.

My hero was Dale Earnhardt.

I know we are not really supposed to have heroes. My era of kids were taught time and again that sports heroes were a dangerous bet. I was aware that looking up to a person that performs was dumb. Too bad. Dale captured my attention, respect, admiration, and awe in the early 1990's and the black number 3 car was my avenging angel.

I think maybe Dale reminded my of my father. My parents were divorced when I was young and I did not see my Dad too much (poor me...). We would go fishing or I would work on the railroad with him but both activities were spotty at best. Dale Earnhardt talked like my dad and his attitude was almost identical. I imagine that was part of it. My father died in 1996 so Dale reminded me even more of my dad after that.

Most of it was Dale said what he meant and meant what he said. He was probably the most gifted driver I have ever seen, but he was never above anything or anyone. Dale was tough as nails and his effort level was legendary, a trait I have built into my own life. In 1996 after a horrific crash at Talledega Earnhardt had a broken sternum and collarbone. The next week the race was at the fabled Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Earnhardt got in the car. After 6 laps the pain was unbearable and Dale came out of the car. The interview below shows Dale as I know him (3:50 mark until end):

I mean, he has a BROKEN sternum and collarbone and he looks and sounds like he was going to cry that he had to get out of the car!

I wanted to be like Dale. I wanted to work as hard as I could. I wanted to be the best at whatever I was doing. I wanted to be honest and never bend myself to fit something I did not believe in. Yes, he was my hero.

Writer Jeff MacGregor pens a masterpiece that somehow sums up my feeling of loss over Dale Earnhardt and how I have struggled to watch NASCAR since he has been gone. A few excerpts that hit me very hard:
Dale Earnhardt and the Power of 3
What happens when your hero doesn't come back? The biggest star in NASCAR has been dead 10 years. I never met Dale Earnhardt, but I know his ghost.

And so do you...

..Dale Earnhardt was rough as a cob, a bastard and a black hat by acclamation and consensus, and people loved him for it. Loved him desperately.
Jimmie Johnson is an iPhone, a Facebook page, a frictionless consumer culture. Jimmie Johnson is a brand strategy.
Dale Earnhardt was working class rage. Dale Earnhardt was bootstraps. Dale Earnhardt was a hundredweight of seed and half a box of shotgun shells. Dale Earnhardt was a hard right to the foreman's jaw the day you walked off the job.

A long time ago upstate I asked a NASCAR fan why Dale Earnhardt was his hero. He was a working man. He looked over my shoulder for a while, then looked right into me.

"He drove the way I feel."
There is much more at the link.

My hero was Dale Earnhardt.

Have a good night.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Just a Bunch of Stuff

Happy Valentine's Day! My cunning plan for surprise flowers and chocolates delivered to the wife's work was foiled due to heavy order traffic! It will be delivered tomorrow but it's not the same thing. Oh well.

ETF's - Save the Drama for Your Mama
Who knew ETF's can be so exciting? A couple of stories from today.

Kid Dynamite notes that the Egyptian fund, EGPT, is going to have some problems squaring the fund when Egypt's market re-open (whenever that is):
EGPT – The Problem With Cash Creations: An ETF Lesson Part IV
very interesting and thus you should be aware how any ETF you are buying is structured so you know the risks.

Last week news was out that the leveraged 3X bearish inverse types of funds were closing up because nothing goes down anymore anyway. That makes sense as the product has no value in this market of forever ascending channels. What is strange is the double long agricultural fund as that one has been on fire (via Zero Hedge):
Deutsche Bank Suspends New Issuance Of Double Long Agricultural ETF DAG
Anyone want to take a stab on why this is going on? I have a conspiracy idea that food commodity speculation is about to become the next "end the shorts against the banks" target! Call me crazy, try it!

Bubbles Are Everywhere and No Where
Maybe Alan Greenspan was right, a bubble can only be identified after it has burst. Before then people will bend themselves into intellectual knots justifying price and valuation. It never changes.

As a metal lover (long physical gold and silver) I am always amazed at the fury of screams that the metals are a bubble. The stock market is always correctly priced, but metals are off the reservation. Ok.

The Golden truth pens a nice missive on metal hysteria and compares it to a new era favorite, NFLX. Below is the graph comparing gold and NFLX since the summer of 2009. I suggest you click on over for the commentary:

NFLX: up 450%
Gold: up 40%
I know, soon everyone in China and India will be streaming 50 videos a day through Netflix and they will make a quadrillion dollars. When? Not now, and not in 5 years. NFLX and social media are the next bubble, IMO. I know it's different this time and all that. I think I will call it the Easy Service bubble or the Time Waster App bubble.

More metals? Click on over to Jesse's site for some great commentary on my beloved Silver:
James Turk On Silver, and A Possible Twist of My Own
I keep meaning to stake out some trades in silver, but then I already am carrying heavy in that area.

Market Operations
Last night I left my list or review stocks but I never updated it! I was running late and I was trying to narrow down some buys. I came across plenty of good chart set ups and I was really working them. I ended up going with 4 buys, and I do not like to have that many positions open at once. The mix is conducive to making easy decisions so I am ok with it. My buys from last night (click for larger view):

Look what Ben Bernanke has done! EconomicDisconnect is buying solar stocks for crying out loud! It's the end of the world for sure!

I recently switched my entire trading account over to TD Ameritrade and I love the service. My orders got filled in the early am (pre-market?) and so I was able to catch most of the run today in the two solar stocks! My old Bank of America/Merrill brokerage would have put me in at the high of the day no doubt.

The solar stocks were not my idea but the great work by chessNwine in the 12631. Chess is maybe the most sound and patient trader I have ever come across and I totally followed his play in this space. I am targeting a nice move up in both stocks, maybe even 10% or more. As always we shall see and no one should take anything written here as advice in any way.

New buy recap:

I found a couple of other quick hit type of trades on my screens and these two are either going to rip or fall flat so trading them will be easy:

I am leaning towards holding my AMRC stock into earnings and playing lotto! It's only money (and a small position) so I think I will let it gap down 30%, I mean see what happens on Thursday.

I am Sure it is a China Only Thing
Make fun of Zero Hedge all you want but the site calls things better than most.

Two posts show how funny the world has become:
China Lowers Weighting Of Surging Food Prices In CPI
Not like the US CPI is from fantasy land, we call it like it is, hee hee. The Zero offered this:
As a result of this pre-emptive manipulative action, expect to see a CPI lower than the 5.4% consensus when the number prints later tonight.

Well, it is later tonight:
China CPI Comes At 4.9%, Below Consensus Of 5.4%, In Line With Zero Hedge "Pervasive Data Manipulation" Expectations
Wow. Inflation erased by the magic of decision. Love it.

Have a good night.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

We Can Catch Comet Dust and Return it to Earth, But We Can't Balance a Budget or Stop Financial Fraud

Had a nice Sunday, not much going on. Last night the wife surprised me with Ruth's Chris reservations for Valentines' Day! I so love that place, steaks to die for. EconomicDisconnect had a bone-in Cowboy Ribeye that was amazing. Good times.

We Can Catch Comet Dust and Return it to Earth, But We Can't Balance a Budget or Stop Financial Fraud
There was something TraderMark wrote the other day that has stuck with me:
Find an ETF which owns the stock - build a big position there while concurrently shorting every other stock in the ETF. This makes you uber long the stock you have (insider information) an information advantage on. Again, genius. More of God's work done by people 2 generations ago who would have been working at NASA or creating the next innovation in science or medicine.
When I read that line I actually yelled out "CORRECT!"

I do not want to get into a philosophical or other kind of debate here. I will say that smart people more and more get drawn to the wild times and cash of finance instead of actually accomplishing something of note for more them them self and their clients. It's a sort of free country so each to his/her own.

Hands get wrung about what to do with Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac like it is hard to figure out. DO NOT even get me going on the pounds of baloney that was put out by Calculated Risk this week about this very subject. CR would like a system in place to cover all lending for mortgages in the next crisis that WILL be coming due to the actions of Bernanke whom was praised endlessly by CR as well. Part of the problem much? Those two posts effectively ended any interest I had in stopping over there.

Want more disagreement? Well load up Jesse's commentary at the Cafe:
Modern Monetary Theory: The Sophistry of the US Dollar
Which was in response to this item over at The Pragmatic Capitalist:
Big time conflict!

Because I have a small brain, or because I am stupid I cannot endorse TPC's view nor anything MMT related. The entire thesis is based on core structures that are in place NOW (US reserve currency for one) that may not be in the future. I suggest strongly that you read both items.

Anyways, where was I?

Instead of frontrunning via HFT crap or making the next round of garbage securitized paper, great minds could be doing this:
NASA Stardust Project
I have written about this before. A spacecraft can be launched from Earth, inserted in an orbit that will be on course to intercept a comet moving at like a million miles an hour, deploy an aerogel collector and grab dust from the comet, and then return the sample to Earth! That is just mind blowing. A second mission will contact comet Temple 1 on the 15th of this month.

Like I said, we can do so much yet accomplish so little.

Stocks in Final Review
I have to review a final 7 stocks for this week. I usually wait until Monday, but I had time. Quite a varied selection tonight, I may put orders in for 2 or 3 tonight:
Some were from my own screens and some were from screens author chessNwine made over at the 12631.

The Return of The Black Car
Childress Racing has brought back The Black Car. 10 years after Dale Earnhardt lost his life at Daytona, my man Kevin Harvick will be driving this evil looking car this year:

Let's go get'em all Kevin!

My film quote contest had not even 1 email submission. I would jump at a thing like this, but then I am strange. Not that anyone cares but here are the answers:
1-"I don't mind getting the car" (The Godfather)
2-"What do they do for fun around here? Play checkers or sumthin? This place is out of it" (The Outsiders)
3-"Stop sir, I beseech you. I apologise for calling your wife a bloated warthog and I bid you good day" (Highlander)
4-"This job would be great if it weren't for the customers" (Clerks)
5-"Do not put on those things on too long it feels like a knife turning in your head" (They Live)
6-"Ok. Show me" (Christine)
7-"....But I have built a city" (Ben-Hur)
8-"People will think we're in love" (Silence of the Lambs)
9-"Maybe you're right. Maybe I don't got it no more" (Rocky II)
10-"I'm glad it was you" (Road to Perdition)

Have a good night.

Friday, February 11, 2011

In the End, There Can be Only Friday

Now that was a long week! Busy at work, saved my roof from any more damage, and only 3 inches of snow! I call it a win. A few ideas and then on with the show for some fun.

Egypt in Motion
I have stayed away from the Egypt news for the most part because I do not believe the hype that this is all about "freedom" or an uprising against a poor government. The situation is dangerous. I know, you think of course I think that, I am a gloomer. Consider that the revolt was a mess and if a government for the people comes to power just what will that look like? An angry poor populace with an axe to grind in charge of the Suez Canal. Nice. I don't think that will happen, I am sure we can buy off whomever takes power, but this could go in a direction very different than what people think. Fast.

Blog Roll Changes
A few changes at the left.

I updated Kid Dynamites new (and great looking BTW) site as he has joined forces with the STockTwits network of killer writers. Another StockTwitter (is that right?) that I really have started to devour is Downtown Trader. Writer Joey Fundora talks my language and I highly recommend stopping over there for a look. Credit Bubble Stocks is a great site and the writer cracks me up. Also, a bearish site which is a endangered animal these days. Take a look at all three.

The Week that Could Have Been
This week I did nothing in the markets. The poll about holding AMRC into earnings is running heavy to sell before then. We shall see. On Monday I screened for quite a while and did not see much that jumped out at me. One stock I was really close to buying was Clorox (CLX). Of course the stock goes apechit today! Thanks a ton! My biggest issue as a trader is that I just don't like to pull the trigger too much (keep snarky comments to self all). I have to move beyond that and play the hands I like instead of being so stationary.

Ok, you don't believe me about CLX. I understand. Here is my Freestockcharts list of stocks I was in final analysis for on 2/7/2011 so you can see I am not full of crap (click for larger view):

Using the iBankCoin PPT tool and screens of my design, I pulled 30 names, evaluated down to 7 (my secret criteria) and I was going to play two for this week, CLX and ABFS. I need to trust myself more I think.

Friday Night Entertainment
Nobody goes the extra mile for the readers like EconomicDisconnect on Friday night, nobody!

Where Apps are Headed
I spilled plenty of pixels on Apps and associated things over the last few weeks. Like on the internet, boiled down, people will just want to see naked chicks and try to get laid. It's a fact. The next generation of click to get what you want delivered (via Geekologie):
French 'Rent a Girlfriend' Website a Success
Spoil yourself, rent a girlfriend! This is the line French site uses to convince male visitors to legally rent a female friend, for an hour, an evening, a night or for a weekend.
Tired of being alone? Are you looking for a female companion who can spoil you and make you feel relaxed? Have you tried a bunch of dating sites that left you disappointed? Don't worry, help is just a few clicks away - Loue Une Petite Amie, which translates as "rent a little girlfriend" actually allows guys to rent female companions, legally! The French website assures its clients they have nothing to fear from the law, because this isn't actually prostitution, but a simple case of renting a person...which apparently isn't illegal in France.
Yes, it is the future.

It has been a while since I ran a contest. Tonight it will be movie quote trivia! I will try my best to make them Google proof (I may slightly alter the quote as to evade search ability!) so all you cheaters cannot win that way (not fool proof, honor system folks!). Up for grabs is the winner's choice of:
-Lead off song choice for next Friday night
-Guest Post spot for a topic of your choice (this is always open BTW, but hey)
-One ounce of silver bullion (which I can never give away to a winner, they don't want it; some bubble!)
-A copy of either "Tau Zero" or "The Door into Summer"
With prizes like that, who can resist!

Rules are simple. Name the film the following quotes were in and email the answers to me at economicdisconnect at gmail. If you are first, you win! If no one gets them all, the winner is the one with the most correct answers. DO NOT post answers in the comments section.

Here they are:

1-"I don't mind getting the car"
2-"What do they do for fun around here? Play checkers or sumthin? This place is out of it"
3-"Stop sir, I beseech you. I apologise for calling your wife a bloated warthog and I bid you good day"
4-"This job would be great if it weren't for the customers"
5-"Do not put on those things on too long it feels like a knife turning in your head"
6-"Ok. Show me"
7-"....But I have built a city"
8-"People will think we're in love"
9-"Maybe you're right. Maybe I don't got it no more"
10-"I'm glad it was you"
Good luck!

Rock Blogging
Ok, that ran a bit long! On to the tuneage!

The steel resolve of my friend over at au soleil levant knows no end. We lead off Friday night with Jason Mraz and "The Remedy":

My best wishes dear! Great song.

Loyal reader, if an infrequent commenter, is C-T!. Off we go with her request, Tom Petty's "Last Dance with Mary Jane":

Tom Petty rules and girls drool.

I love this tune and it is actually a newer song! Try out Finger Eleven and "Paralyzer":

"If your body matches what your eyes can do" NICE!

Reader Gawains has a serious Black Sabbath issue, but luckily I do too! Take your medicine with "Rock N Roll Doctor":

Good pick.

For the Egypt show, here is Danzig's "Mother" for revolt:

Great tune.

Two left! "Two minutes to go, maybe two minutes left in Julio Cesar Chaves' historic unbeaten streak". Uh, no! Sorry Jim Lampley.

For Valentine's day, Bette Midler's immortal "The Rose":

That song hurts, and yes I know I have played it before!

Last call! Get those lighters up!

Here are The Ramones with "Somebody Put Something in my Drink":

That song gets me so amped up!

Have a good night.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

How Will We Define a "Correction" in the Current Market?

Almost Friday! I need this one big time, been a long week. Be sure to get your request in for Friday Night, the cupboard has been bear for some time. I hope a friend of mine has a minute to select the opening song for the night, or anything else for that matter.

AMRC: Should I Play Earnings Lotto?
A little while ago I entered in a small position for the stock AMRC. They do energy saving stuff or some crap, when you are chart looking you have to ignore things like details. Anyways, it has gone no where since I bought it and I wanted to dump it for a small loss before their earnings set for February 17, which is next Thursday.

Maybe I am bored but I was leaning towards holding this stock in to earnings and playing Earnings Lotto! Just like last night, maybe lotto is in our blood! Either I can grab the bump up I was looking for (+10% or so) or I will get dusted for 20-30% on the downside. Great risk-reward setup! I will put up a poll (top left) and you can vote on it, though I may not actually do what the winning response is. Have at it!

Attack of the Killer Apps
Not quite "Attack of the Killer Tomatoes" or "Killer Clowns from Outerspace" but here it comes!

Leigh Drogen of Surfview Capital has to be the most dialed in writer I read on all things new tech. While I basically disagree with him on almost everything, I am an old fogey after all, I cannot argue that he sees trends way before they happen.

In a post today Drogen discusses the company Munchly and this is his description:
No More Waiting in Lines at the Stadium
You’re at the ballpark and you’ve just found your seat when that sweet smell of beer and hot dogs hits you smack in the face. You don’t stand a chance against it; your will to stick with that 2,500 calorie diet is toast. You’re about to make a run for the concession stand to stuff your face when your favorite player steps up to the plate with two on and two out. Either that hot dog is gonna wait, or you’re gonna miss the game.

The people at Munchly are about to solve your conundrum in a rather simple, but genius way.
Great hook! A little more:
In a matter of months, select sporting venues and movie theaters will begin a pilot program allowing patrons to order from concession stands with their smart phones. Certain venues will then deliver your grub to your seat, and some will alert you when your order has been filled so that you can run up and grab it. No more waiting on lines.

Yeah, I know, you want to throw a brick at your computer screen and scream, “Why didn’t I think of that!” Sorry, Greg Pelly and Andrew Tider, the co-founders of Munchly, beat you to it. I had a chance to view a demonstration of the Munchly application at the New York Tech Meetup earlier this month. Besides being hilarious with their routine, which is part demonstration, part comedy act, they basically had the room saying, “About damn time!”
You need to swing over and read the whole thing.

I have serious questions on the logistics of such a service. How many runners per seller stand will have to be available for every stadium? What will the wait time be? How much more will it cost? Alcohol sales will be an issue I think due to age verification laws and such. Call me a cynic but at a playoff game when you are NOT GOING to leave your seat, this thing just might fly. Plus, most people are crazy lazy so this may just work! Leave a comment here or over at Leighs site with your thoughts as I am super interested in what people think about this.

As an aside: I will call an App bubble when:
You are in a stall doing your business, notice there is no toilet paper, and in true "spare a square" fashion dial up your phone to get paper delivered to your stall location. Indeud.

How Will We Define a "Correction" in the Current Market?
I am running way late so another idea I was rolling around the past few days.

Call it "The Bernank" market; the "Generational Rally" market; the "Never Ending Story" market; or the "Buy the Fuc&ing Dip" market this baby is downright sick in the ascension higher. So what is a "correction" in such an atmosphere? I do not think many people have thought about this and it can pose problems if one should occur. I did not say "if and when" on purpose by the way.

Save for the run down last summer, this market has not moved lower at all for, well forever. What would a correction be as opposed to a dip?

Investopedia offers this:
What Does Correction Mean?
A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index. Corrections are generally temporary price declines, interrupting an uptrend in the market or asset.
So last summer meets the criteria roughly.

A dip I guess would be 1-3%.

Instead of getting caught up in what a correction vs a dip would be, I would point out that anything less than 10% is not going to scare anyone and this sets up a nasty dynamic.

Trading volume is ultra, mega low. All you perma bulls have to admit participation is limited at best, just go ahead and say it. Margin is very high however. Not a good mix.

I see an very real possibility for a major distribution move where markets may "correct" 10% with dumb money buying all the way and then a total rout occurring. This possibility is very real and I would not ignore it. What better way to stick it to the little guy once again, nice.

That said, now is not the time. Many are worried about QE 2 ending in the early summer, but I am not even worried until maybe next fall. We shall see.

Have a good night.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

How to Get Rich or Die Trying

My roof is now snow and ice free! The crew that did the work cleared everything off 100%! I cannot be more pleased. Good service is a huge plus when you can find it and I will be using this company again in the spring for roof work.

How to Get Rich or Die Trying
I am pretty sure that is a 50 Cent album name.

Look, there are millions of people in the United States and the vast majority have either limited or no net worth and another part that has some amount of a safety net. The top layer of the population is very well off and it seems most Americans spend a huge amount of time dreaming up ways to pole vault into that party. If it was easy then we would all be that top layer so how best to go about it?

I could serve up a bunch of platitudes, cliches, and other nonsense using terms like "hard work", "vision", "taking a risk", and assorted others. I wanted to cut through the crap. Here are the different ways to get rich, though mostly you will just die trying.

-Inherit the Money
-Already Have Big Money (Takes money to make money)
-Steal the Money (classical sense)
-Steal, I mean Earn the Money via High Finance and Big Banking
-Work in Government related to High Finance
-Win the Lottery
-Win Lottery with company Stock Options
-Win the Business Lottery by your grand idea catching fire; rubber vomit did not fly, but a site that allows users to post pictures and write to people is bigger than Exxon Mobil.
-Posses one in a million physical skills and win the Professional Sport Contract Lotto
-Make a sex tape that somehow wins the Sextape Lotto (can be parlayed into Reality TV Lotto)
-Win the Struggling Actor Lotto

The common thread here is that if you don't have the big ticket, getting one is basically a lotto. I now that runs counter to what we as a people want to believe. Too bad, it's true.

If you get up and go to work day in and day out, perform at the top level of your profession, invest smart, save money, dodge any major illness or injury, dodge a divorce or two, and avoid having your identity stolen you will end up ok. Maybe comfortable, maybe a little less or more so. That's it and that's all. Now that story will not get you running out of bed in the morning all fired up, but it is the truth of it for almost everyone.

Of course there is nothing wrong with this. Still, our culture seems obsessed with the big score. For every Steve Jobs personal computer game changer there are thousands of early era computer ideas that went bust. For every Zuckerburg Facebook there are thousands of similar sites that fade away. For every Lebron James there are tons of kids with knees that gave out in high school. For every Kim Kardashian there is every video on amateur porn sites (billions?).

I bring this up tonight because I am starting to see and hear some talk in my circles about getting in on the stock market. The rally has now caught the attention of the everyday person. They want to take their $1000 and play Netflix or Apple and make big money. They will not listen that it cannot be done (see above's Already Have Big Money..) in the short term and I have seen faces of people down 20% after getting in on "the sure thing" and it is always crushing.

I did ask the same folks about Gold and Silver and they were not interested in buying "jewelry" so that pleases me.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Old School Artwork

I had scheduled roofers to come today and remove the snow and ice dams from the roof of the house. They called me in the afternoon and told me there were too many emergencies and they had to reschedule for tomorrow morning. Serious roof damage is gong on up here after the never ending snow storms!

Old School Artwork
I saw a post over at Ptak Science Books that was too amazing! Check out these old school engineering manual schematics for steam ship boilers. These were hand drawn in 1880!:

Close up:

That is amazing detail. Great stuff.

Superbowl Marker Issues
I cannot tell if this is photo-shopped or what, but it is funny:
Marker Cap Fail
see more funny videos

Bull Market or Honey Badger Market?
In light of the all powerful market run to all time highs, I dub it "The Honey Badger Market" (bad language and ugly scenes, you are warned!):

That was great.

Have a good night.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Work Night

I thought the Superbowl was a reasonable game, a pretty fun one. The young Green Bay Packers looked like veterans with how calm they were as the Steelers came back hard in the game. Impressive win and they should be very good for a long time.

Great to see the Volkswagen Darth Vader kid commercial is the big winner so far!

Work Night
It is Monday night and that means I work my moonlighting job as a stock picker. I am off to The PPT and 12631 by iBankCoin to look for ideas for this week. I will update later if I see anything interesting.

Update 1:
Not much coming up on my screens. How can it be hard to find a stock in The Bernank market? Geez.

Update 2:
I am working on a couple ideas, but was way distracted by this blog post:
A Sign You're Getting Old
Well worth a look. I will be 35 NEXT MONTH!!!!!!! Ugh.

Have a good night.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Sunday Night

Major props to the Green Bay Packers for a huge win tonight. Just too many weapons in the end.
Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25
I had forecast GB 31, Pit 28 so what can you do.

RUN and don't walk to this Zero Hedge item that show the entire banking system is run by a bunch of reactive fools with no ability what-so-ever:
How Hank Paulson Broke The Law: "This Will Be A Disclosable Event And We Do Not Want A Disposable Event" - Parsing The Ken Lewis "MAC" Deposition
I get that we all think the US is not Egypt, and that's comforting. What a sick joke this whole country has become. Enjoy the facade.

Have a good night if you can, what a joke.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Saturday Night Fights

A few round selections for the boxing history inclined.

Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Donny Lalonde Round 9 (1988)
Scroll to the 4:00 minute mark, sound is a bit off.

Tommy Morrison vs. Razor Ruddock Round 6 (1995)
Wild, insane round.

George Foreman vs. Jerry Cooney Round 2 (1990)
Dubbed "The Geezers at Ceasers", Foreman blows Cooney away in round 2. Scroll to 5:45 mark.

Joe Louis vs Billy Conn Round 13 (1941)
Light heavyweight champ Billy Conn was way ahead on all scorecards but went after Heavyweight champ Joe Louis anyway. Not a great idea. Crappy recap video below.

Gene Tunney vs. Jack Dempsey Round 7 (1927)
The famous "Battle of the Long Count". Dempsey was not aware of the new rule requiring fighters to go to a neutral corner! No matter, Tunney was ok and goes on to win the fight.

Sugar Ray Robinson vs. Gene Fullmer Round 5 (1957)
This may be the greatest left hook ever thrown. Many new age folks have no idea why anyone that knows anything about boxing always says the original Sugar Ray was the best ever. He was the best fighter I have ever seen. Scroll to the 7:38 mark.

Mickey Ward vs. Arturo Gotti Round 9 (2002)
I use to make sandwiches for Mickey Ward at a store I worked at in college, and he regularly sparred with fighters at my gym. I had no idea he would go on to such heights and a film about his life! Round 9 here is just brutal.

End the show with the single greatest round of all time.

Marvin Hagler vs. Thomas Hearns Round 1 (1985)
Just epic.


Have a good night.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Trapped Under Ice Friday

Damn Ice Dams
I was home yet again today after waking up at 5am, going downstairs to find a nice water fountain coming in the living room bay window. The culprit, ice dams! I had to wait for the sun to come up to get after it.

There was huge ice buildup over the window and all on the front of the house (it's a Gambrel style). I took out my 8 foot ladder, a hammer, a crowbar and set off to work. I got most of the ice away from over the window, but the huge ice block on the front of the roof was hard to dislodge. After a few attempts I felt a strange warning in the Force. Seconds later I saw a 75 pound block of ice (yes I weighed it on the bathroom scale!) come flying down the front of the house right at me! I was on the second to last top rung of the ladder! I calmly pivoted my upper body and pushed the ice block off to the side and onto the ground. I can say it was amazingly skillful and quick, like a ninja. Glad that's over for now but I cannot even bribe a roofing firm to remove the snow and ice damns from the roof as they are all too busy. Maybe a mind trick will work?

You Win Some and You Lose Some, and Others You Miss
I was stopped out of my HSY trade this morning at $49.80. In at $46.79 so I pocketed a cool +6.5%. Just missed my $50 target but it was there. If HSY breaks over $51 I may rebuy but it has been turned away from that top quite a few times.

I am still holding AMRC, a small position. Still think a bounce is ready to go, but I am down a bit on the stock (-3%) so I will not let it go much further.

I was shocked that I still held my OMEX shares at $2.90 and today it rolled to $3.60! Not bad for a 2 year hold, LOL! I actually forgot I still had this position until I started trading again. Nice!

The big regret? TRCR which I showed you all in this post on January 24th. What I saw was a repeating higher double high pattern, it is almost fractal like! Here was the chart that night:

After today's 2.8% move up:

Now this may not be the next move up, and I may just be imagining things but I had wanted an entry here but just never got to it. A friend of mine went in after reading that post and is happy so far. Hey bud, your welcome!

As for anything else, I am too tired. While destroying ice with a hammer has it's rewards, something feels very out of place where my right clavicle meets my right shoulder. No it's not just soreness, I probably bent something. Wonderful. Also the Bernanke speech from yesterday still has my furious that such a total apechit clown runs the FED and is not run out of town post haste. As such, macro stuff will have to wait for another post. Off to the fun stuff.

Friday Night Entertainment
I will endure serious pain to bring you the fun we all so richly deserve!

Funny Videos
These two are MUST see video!

A pug dog (not mine sadly) that yells "BATMAN" was around a while ago. Now he has been set to the Batman TV show theme and it is get out funny:


This may be the greatest commercial ad of ALL TIME!:

The team that made this ad are brilliant! How the kid captures the perfect moment at the :50 second mark I have no idea. If I was not in love in a weird way with my Infiniti G35X I would visit a VW dealership on this commercial alone. Try the real force kid, hee hee.

Did You Know?
It's that time again to grow neurons with Did you know!

-Ice dam war can be fought by stuffing nylons with Magnesium Chloride and pacing them on trouble spots? Just don't use black fishnet garters or you may get complaints from the neighbors.
-I missed this from January 28th, but did you know EconomicDisconnect stayed home from school to watch the space shuttle Challenger launch way back in 1986? My mother and I just sat there without saying a word, for a long time.
-Io, one of Jupiter's moons, is seriously strange?
-Hadrian's Wall is thought to be the last great work of Rome?

Rock Blogging
Wow, I am running way late! Must be my busted shoulder. On to the tunes.

Loyal reader Gawains, who is suffering in Texas under cold conditions and like 3 inches of snow (WIMP!!!), would like George Thorogood and the Destroyers hit "I Drink Alone", which works out if no one is around. I mean why not drink alone?:

Love this tune.

Ok, if your name is not Josh Brown you may not be into Hip hop. I am not really, but I do adore Lil Kim. Here is Sugar (Gimme Some) by Trick Daddy and crew:

"Lil Kim's eye candy baby!" Indeud. Call me Kimmy darlin.

Ok, after that I need the 80's! How about Europe and "Carrie"?:

MEGA vocals on that guy.

One of my all time favorite songs, and one I will mat the gas pedal to anytime, is Iron Maiden's masterpiece "Hallowed be thy Name". How about on Piano via by Scott Lavender?:

So sick it hurts. What a great job.

Two left! Two left and I am one armed at this point!

In case you missed it, I was best friends with all the future scientists in the band Man Bites Back in college. While they pursued other endeavors than music, I love this song "Ghetto Starlight":

Kick ASS!

Last call and my right shoulder is happy, but I am sad!

In regards to the never ending Bernanke market assault on new highs no matter the cost, take a crowd WILD ride with Rage Against the Machine and "Bulls on Parade". The crowd at this show was so amped:

Bad shoulder and all I want to jump!

Have a good night.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Ben Bernanke: Is He the Kwisatz Haderach?

I will just open with the snow update. Another 8 inches on tap for Saturday and a large system capable of "substantial snowfall" on the way for Wednesday of next week. I am going to need extra beer. Oh yeah, nice to see Stratfor getting props all over the web today!

As always, get Friday Night requests in!

Can an Efficient Market get Scared of Baloney?
I do not want to spend much time on this, I have spilled pixels by the ton explaining psychology and markets built on quicksand. I saw this headline today:
Now A Congressional Committee Wants Meredith Whitney To Testify And "Come Clean"
Ever hear that song "Don't Rock the Boat"? Obviously Mrs. Whitney has not!

From what I have seen of Whitney's report on Muni bond defaults, it was lacking in real hardcore substance. After her 60 Minutes appearance a muni bond route ensued and people are mad that a 5 minute baloney piece was able to roil markets for big dollar withdrawals and stunted offerings. May I ask a simple question?

Is is more plausible that:
-The 10-20 normal, everyday people that are over age 60 and actually watch 60 Minutes are in control of a trillion dollars or more of capital to trigger a flight from muni bonds after the show?
-Talk and serious discussion of various over hauls in muni land were well on their way resulting in haircuts and Mrs. Whitney was an easy scapegoat?

I leave it to the reader to decide. In a deep, liquid market like muni bonds I would think one call from a media loving analyst would have next to zero impact on pricing. Unless that market does have structural issues and is built on ponzi debt schemes that is. No worries, I wrote before that muni debt is 100% safe due to The Bernank and I have even said they were a buy at these lower levels.

Ben Bernanke: Is He the Kwisatz Haderach?
After the speech given today by FED Head Ben Bernanke to the sharp minded Press Club, one can only wonder, is The Bernank the Kwisatz Haderach?:
Kwisatz Haderach is a term which refers to a prophesied messiah and superbeing in Frank Herbert's fictional Dune universe. The Sisterhood theorize that such a male would possess absolute prescience, seeing all possible futures thus being able to cause select threads of time to be realized through manipulation.
It must be!

The speech today was so brazen and so full of shit that I debated whether to even write about it. At some point things cross over into that Twilight Zone type of thing and today was the day it happened to me.

In summary, and I will paraphrase though I will not be far off from Bernanke's EXACT words:
1.) The stock market is way up
2.) Due to (1) everything is getting really good now
3.) Unemployment will remain high though, whoops!
4.) FED monetary policy shows no inflation anywhere in anything in the world except maybe...
5.) The commodity price rise is a healthy sign of growing world economies, but that has nada to do with FED policy anyways so who cares.

This passes for the US Federal Reserve head policy maker's view on things?

I submit this all with limited commentary. If Ben Bernanke sees no problem with how hot money flows are causing distortions in asset prices then he is simply lying. I have never really believed that The Bernank is stupid, he is most certainly not. The Bernank is simply pounding the drum on what he can, a higher stock market, while downplaying the failures of his work, unemployment and severe inflation in real necessities.

Unless he is the Kwisatz Haderach! Then maybe this all works out due to his vision! On cue, here we go (headline may change later but this I copied at 7:30pm EST):
Bernanke speech helps push stocks higher

Maybe I am not a believer. Maybe the miracle of a rising stock market where most real Americans have nothing it it can result in a robust economic system. How can this be! Only one way:

Only instead of rain on Arrakis, we have dollars from the sky finding their way into POMO-MOMO stocks! Genius!

Speaking of an Uptrending Market

My move on The Hershey Company (HSY) is working well. I entered on the Tuesday open at $46.79 and today's move brings HSY to $50 and change (almost +7%)! I had estimated a move to $50 and have moved up my stops to lock in gains. The action in HSY is still favorable, but you know how I roll; conservative and keep wins. If, and a big IF, HSY can break out over $51 on some volume it may run to $55 or more. It has been turned back many times and I respect that trend. Book it!

Have a good night.