Thursday, February 2, 2012

The Lexicon of Market Extremes

3 sleeps until the Superbowl! It's getting harder and harder to block out the game.

Tomorrow is Friday night, so get your requests in for anything you want to see.

Market Observations
A basically flat day overall. Seems markets went on hold after lunch waiting for the jobs number tomorrow. This is silly, jobs are not coming back anytime soon and a 2% beat or miss on the number means little or nothing. But that's how things roll.

My three open longs (AREX, WTS, BANR) were about even today. That's not bad, but with so many names going bonkers (biotechs especially) it can be a little jealousy inducing.

In any case, resolution should be coming soon either through a breakdown of the market (maybe eyeing SPX 1320) or some sideways consolidation into next week to recharge the batteries for a run higher.

The Lexicon of Market Extremes
I was very skeptical of Twitter and held off on using for some time. I have to say it's a great real time tool for market observation. What's also important is that while most that write will settle down and write a calm and measured blog post or article, Tweets often show the very emotion and thinking going on right at the moment without filter.

And at no time is this more clear than at market extremes.

Tonight I will pick out some select phrases or terms you are likely to see any time on Twitter but the frequency, use of various punctuation, and use of CAPITAL letters will get very high at either market bottoms or tops.

Market Bottoms
"Day's Over"
"Margin Calls on the Way"
"S*&t's Broke!"
"Orderly Close..."
"Cramer Just Went Short!"
"That Went Fast"
"Falling Knife"
"Deep Value Plays"
"Book Value"
"Fake Market"
"Artificial Support"

To be fair, market bottoms tend to be quiet affairs on Twitter as markets collapse, no one except random bears are talking much and the smart people are out of the market or not pressing their luck short.

Market Tops
"BOOM!" or "BOOM!!!!!!!!"
"Breaking Out"
"Shorts" usually in conjunction with a "kill" type thing
"Trade the Trend"
"I am Almost Even on That ..insert stock.."
"Buy High, Sell Higher"
"Have to Get In"
"AOL Looks Good"
"This is Easy"
"Send a Stamp and $5 and get My Newsletter by Mail!"
"Who Needs a Good Financial Advisor?"

To be fair market tops are usually noisy and annoying Twitter as all the "players" come out of the woodwork.

Use the lists ans note frequency. By my count, we are not topping out and there is still a good mix of both.

Have a good night.


chessNwine said...

Great post.

EconomicDisconnect said...

LOL, you read so fast it scares me Chess!

Sarie (23aloha) said...

Agree with Chess, really fine post. Given the context, I can see why you considered "jargon," in addition to "lexicon." Another considered piece of work here. :)

EconomicDisconnect said...

Mahalo Sarie!

David Batista said...

This weekend, we shall be mortal enemies my friend!

At least until Monday morning. Then, either outcome, I hope we can let bygones be bygones. :)

Nils said...

I always like "Cancel all orders!".

GawainsGhost said...

Well, for Friday Night Entertainment I recommend a most underapreciated band, Steely Dan, "Hey Nineteen."

By the way, do you know who Jeff "Skunk" Baxter is? He was one of the original guitar players for Steely Dan, played on their first two albums. But then he left the band, became a producer and a sound engineer.

He lived next door to a Navy pilot, and one day this guy gave him an aviation magazine that had an article on anti-aircraft technology. Baxter thought, hey, that's just like the technology I use in the studio. So he wrote a paper and gave it to his pilot friend.

That became the Aegis anti-ballistic missle defense system.

When the musicians are kicking your ass, you know your army sucks.

EconomicDisconnect said...

David, yes its on to the bitter end until Monday morning.

Nils, I LOVE THAT ONE! Cannot believe I forgot it.

Gawains, the Aegis thing is insane in operation.

Anonymous said...

Good luck Sunday...but not too much luck. ;)



Excellent post