Thursday, March 1, 2012

The Oil is Too Damn High!

Pretty large snow storm here the past two days. Heavy wet snow, but the roads were in good shape and had almost no issues with commute.

Tomorrow is Friday night, so get those requests in.

Position Review and Portfolio Changes
It's been a more wild week than markets have seen. The drop on Wednesday was somewhat more nasty than anything else seen in 2012. Again, you have to keep perspective.

I was stopped out of the position I had started on Monday in CTCT for -2.8% loss. Looking over the chart the damage to the potential breakout over $32 is not mortal, but a stop is a stop, it hits, you walk.

I have been in BANR since 2/1/12 and as it passed the key level of $20 I was liking it, as it passed $20.50 it looked better and today it was over $21 for almost the whole session and ended right at that level (click any chart for larger view):
Still holding and real buy interest here.

I am still long CACI from Monday. It's still has to prove it can stay over $60 or I am moving on. WFM continues to look solid and closed over $82 today.

I added WRI (Weingarten Realty Inc) as I had a buy order set should WRI get over the $25.20 mark and it did today. The stock was moving well all day until the oil fear induced meltdown late day (will discuss below). Still, the close over $25.20 was my trigger and WRI may get out of this range soon:
That is where I am as of today in trading account.

The Oil is Too Damn High!
"The oil is TOO DAMN HIGH!"

I was going to try and make a technical case on oil prices and the general stock market, but why? It's common sense. The oil is too damn high!

Late in the day after some real equity progress Twitter went aflame with oil price quotes. The run was insane and high oil prices are not good for anything, period. There is no way to contort that one data point any other way. Whether a Saudi Oil pipeline was or was not sabotaged or had an accident, oil going higher will cap equities in my opinion. It is so like Iran to do something like this, so I do not dismiss it out of hand. Still, some level of speculation has moved into oil, was it the silver crew moving on?

It's a mess but what I know is if oil continues higher (my man ChessNwine has a great technical case here that it will) only the best set ups and best behaving stocks will be kept or considered.

Have a good night.


scharfy said...



I will say this though, people's behavior has changed since the big run up to 150$/bbl in 2008.

More trains to work, fuel efficiency slowly on the uptick, carpools, no wasteful midsummer excursions to great america without the mental check if 4$ gas is in the budget, and just all in all - a little leaner.

Maybe the cure the high prices - is -high prices...

Anonymous said...

HOLY CHIT!!! It's Scharfy!

Refinance Mortgage Rates said...

A great insight on high oil prices! I remember when I saw Twitter torrents with the High Oil Pricing tweets. There's no reason for making the price of oil to high.

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