Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Market Notes and Win a Copy of "Backstage Wall Street"

It was just under 80 degrees here today and more tomorrow. Spring is in the air and it feels amazing. This early warm up may bump up fishing season by a week or two. Regular readers know how much I HATE the winter.

Market Notes
Another reasonable drop at the open today and then some buying came in for most of the day. After the late run last week a drop and/or sideways action was probably in order. Sometimes you will miss a run up for various reasons, but there are some things to look for that can grab you a second chance.

A week ago I highlighted the stock WLK which sported a great weekly chart and a supportive daily chart. I bought in on March 12 and have held since. After a nice run, WLK is slowing down here, and had I missed my entry before I am presented with a lower entry than the breakout day. The key here and always is to make sure the price pause or drop is on low volume! If new breakout buyers are not running for the door a longer term swing can make sense. Here is a look at WLK and note the volume dries up on this pause (click any chart for larger view):
Another shot at an entry after a breakout is a retest of the breakout area, or "throwback". I am long CTXS and here you can see it has gone back to the breakout area around $76.80:
This drop is a bit more menacing than the WLK drop and I am not going to give this too much more room.

Lastly, I added MBFI today and here is a weekly chart for the stock:

So far nothing too damaging in the market. 2012 has been kind to the long side, but things cannot go up every single day. You can often learn more about a market on down days than all oat mania up days. Just try to listen.

Win a Copy of "Backstage Wall Street"
I discussed the launch of Joshua Brown's new book "Backstage Wall Street" last week. I am sure this book is going to be great and I am starting on it tonight.

It just so happens I bought extra copies for the express purpose of giving them away. I have two copies up for grabs. I will ship the books out to the winners of a trivia contest this weekend (I hope).

First the rules:
-Submit answers to me via my email on the top right hand corner of this site. DO NOT use the comments section or Twitter.
-The order of correct answers by time submitted is how the winners are decided. Move fast, get a book.
-One submission per person.
-I will name winners later in week and then I will email you and ask for a mailing address. If you don't really want a book shipped, don't enter.

Ok, so the 4 questions:

1.) The SS Central America ship was lost in a hurricane in 1857 off the coast of the Carolinas. The ship carried about 2 million dollars in gold and the loss of this money contributed to to what financial panic?

2.) What space probe sent back images from the surface of a Saturnian moon?

3.) What is the name of the Starship in the novel "Tau Zero"?

4.) Who is credited with the invention of the polymerase chain reaction?

Good luck.

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

Didn't you post a story about that ship? HBP

EconomicDisconnect said...

Yes, a while ago.

GawainsGhost said...

I have no clue how to answer any of those trivia questions, so you can count me out of this contest. Although that does look like an interesting book.

Nothing in it would surprise me though. I could tell you things about real estate that you wouldn't believe. For example, a couple of years ago, this guy, this realtor, misrepresented himself as a lawyer to defend his friend on a DWI case, in open court no less. Not only was he busted, he was severely fined, sent to jail and stripped of his license.

This is what I'm talking about. You want to do business? You do it straight up, full disclosure, everything above board. If I lie about the condition of a house, say it has a foundation problem that I know about and don't reveal, that's actionable. Meaning not only would I lose my license, I would be fined treble damages--that's three times the sales price. I certainly don't want to get involved with anything like that.

I wish the government would take financial regulation as seriously as they take real estate regulation. I mean, conning people, pension funds, into making investments, while betting against those investments, that's fraud in the inducement. And it is actionable. I'd like to see a lot of these guys in jail and heavily fined. But that's not going to happen.

Oh, and the NFL came down rather hard on your New Orleans Saints today, GYC. A full year suspension of the head coach, without pay. An indefinite suspension of the former defensive coordinator, without pay. An eight game suspension of the general manager, without pay. And a six game suspension of another coach, without pay. Plus a $500,000 fine and the loss of draft picks. Penalites for the 20+ players involved will be handed out later.

Now, if the government took the same approach to bankers, hedge fund managers, investment brokers, and the like, then this economy would be worth investing in. But until such time, I'll invest in myself, do business straight up, make as much money as I can, and let the chips fall where they may.

I might wind up broke. I might wind up in a luxury condo downtown on 6th Street in Austin, with money in the bank and no debt. Either way, I'm going to do business straight up. Because that's how business has got to be done.

Would that the rest of the world felt the same way. But I look upon that as not my problem. I don't lie, I don't cheat, and I don't steal. Other people may, but that doesn't involve me. So I let the chips fall where they may.

Cheaters never win. They might get the spotlight for a short while, but at the end of the day, they have nothing to show for it.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Gawains, I cannot believe the 1 year ban for Payton!!! Saints were in trouble before, now it's just ugly. Ugh.

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, Goodell came down hard on the Saints. It's unprecedented, really. But, you know, it's not the crime. It's the coverup.

Committing a crime is relatively easy. Getting away with it is the hard part. Lying to authorities after the fact will get you into a world of shit.

For Friday Night Entertainment, I renew my recommendation for some good old folksy blues, Neil Young, "Out on the Weekend."


It's funny, but I guess you had to grow up in the 60s and 70s to really understand. Elvis went into the Army. The Beatles invaded. The Rolling Stones took over. But it was Bob Dylan, who left a small town in Minnesota and moved to Greenwhich Village in New York, where he met some artists and studied poetry (he was particularly fond of Dante). In five years, with a guitar, a harmonica and words, Dylan completely changed the American music scene. He became the Voice of a Generation.

The Band soon followed, as did Buffalo Springfield, then Crosby, Steels, Nash and Young. Elvis made a comeback. The Beatles fell apart. The Stone kept on rocking. And then along came Black Sabbath, David Bowie, Kiss, Alice Cooper, and AC/DC. The music world hasn't been the same since.

I don't include Led Zeppelin, because they were just another rhythm and blues band. The Scorpions though rocked.

Still, give me some old Hank Williams, some Johnny Cash and some Merl Haggard. But I'll settle for Neil Young. That man is an artist.


Excellent post