Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Extent of the Damage

It is going to be over 60 degrees here over the next two days. It was 7 degrees last night. Wild weather indeed!

Extent of the Damage
A day or so ago J.C. Parets of All Star Charts asked on Twitter what would be the least expected market action going forward. I offered two:
1.) A slow grind higher for another 10% on the SPX
2.) A fast 10% collapse over a few days on the SPX

What is most expected right here is a 3-5% pull back (depends where you start the measuring) in the broad indices and then a resumption of buyer interest and the primary uptrend. As this is 2012 and not 2011 I do prefer that to hold true.

Looking over charts tonight I see plenty of substantial damage to many names. What's even more dangerous is some names and sectors are showing tempting hammer prints right now, just daring you to take a shot on a rebound. Silver miner EXK is one and there are many names in the metals sector looking the same (click for larger view):
A gap up tomorrow would result in the rare "abandoned baby" candle pattern and could, I repeat COULD, be a huge bottom signal. To be fair, this could just keep flying lower as well.

A name I like to track because it runs fairly predictable within some set ranges is TPC. After today this stock is set to go into the lower range once again:
A turnaround would set a 3rd higher low for TPC, and thus it's worth watching.

In short I am defensive here and will be looking for confirmation of some reversal prints and for battered names to firm up. The very expected dip has now arrived. It's not my trading style or really an option for me to watch movement all during the day to then pounce so I will not be trying to grab a bottom here. Should things settle out and buyers return there will be plenty of time to get back aggressive. If things get worse then I will be limited in exposure. It's a muddled picture right now so clearly my feelings on the market are muddled.

Today I closed my WFM trade for -0.8% to have a larger cash position. I still hold BANR and WRI.

Have a good night.


Doable Finance said...

Good for you.

GawainsGhost said...

Well, it's been repo week. We haven't received a lot of new assignments yet. But I suppose we will before the day is done.

We did get one though, from Chase. My mother said, "I swore to myself that even if I did not have one single listing, I would never accept another assignment from Chase. It's too much work!" Yeah, there were 10, count 'em TEN, attachments just to accept the assignment. And Chase pays only a 1.25% commission.

Are you kidding me? Just doing the research to simply find out where this house is, driving over there, having it rekeyed, taking pictures and notes, writing a price opinion, having the lawn mowed and the utilities turned on, then driving back to put up a sign, not to mention hiring a contactor for whatever necessary repairs that need to be made, all that alone takes up 1.25% of the list price of any home. After that, you're losing money before you even show the house!

Banks exploiting self-employed realtors, expecting us to lose money so they can make money, instead of paying the market rate for the service provided. Gee, imagine that.

Hey, they made the loan, and now they're losing money on it. I look upon that as not my problem. And I am not about to waste my time, money and gas just to help them barely break even.

So she sent Chase an email: "Thank you for the assignment, but I must respectfully decline. It is not economically feasible for me to do all the work you require for a 1.25% commission."

She's very diplomatic, you know. I'd have told them to take 1.25% and shove it up their money-losing ass.

"It felt so good to send that email," she said. I'm sure it did, mom.

Anyway, for Friday Night Entertainment, I recommend Neil Young and Crazy Horse, "Rust Never Sleeps." Live.


Oh, and while I was typing this missive, another two assignments came rolling in. These are from Freddie Mac. They pay 2.5%, minimum commission $2000. I can live with that.

I'm sure we'll get more as the day progresses. So I guess I better get back to work.

Unsecured Bad Credit Credit Cards said...

I can't believe this would surprise anyone. The way things have been heading for the past few years, you should have seen this coming. I have vowed to not place one penny of my hard earned money the hands of these Wall Street crooks and Big Banks.

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