Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Times They are a Changing

Is it Thursday yet??????

Market Operations
I think it is because I feeling so much better, but I am getting juiced for market action again. I am back in the trading turret for sure. Armed with iBankCoin's PPT system and the 12631 Trading room I am getting back in a groove. Special thanks to my man chessNwine as well.

The Good
CSU is behaving well. I may be looking at my target area of $9.70-$10 by weeks end if the euphoria sticks around. I bought ASYS today and the chart is shaping up nicely for a higher move. In the 12631 I went full bore on an idea concerning semiconductors as a whole. You DO NOT WANT to know how hard I got positioned for this, it's not like me and I am really overweight one idea. It felt right though. In time I will reveal the play.

The Bad
Torn between WM, NI and GPRO this morning, I went with a small position in GPRO. This was based on technicals and such, but a news event cratered the stock and I ate a 3% loss. Not a mistake per se, but a missed opportunity on a day when almost everything went bananas.

The Second Chance
Still have my eye on WM, but I had mentioned NI as a possible break out idea (close over $20.50) earlier in the week. Here is today's look:
I have to admit this one is a blind spot for me as NI has not seen $25 since 2007 and $30 was last printed in 2001. I thought this one was a new all time high! Still, making headway into new recent territory is a tough trade for me. I may buy it on any test of $20.50 this week anyway. I am feeling that froggy.

I hope that was enough market action for the readers, I know it was for me!

Added: Around 1pm I Tweeted "1324-1325 for SP500 close today seems about right.". Of course it closes at 1326.7, ugh!!! I was trying to make a splash!

Shocking Headline of the Day
3 monster headlines today, shocking as they can be:
-Apple beats Estimates, Shares Rise
-Sun Will Rise Tomorrow
-An Apple Fell from a Tree, Hit Ground
You can't believe any of it, I know!

Times They are a Changing
Apple earnings (just amazing how much cash that cult company generates!) got me thinking today.

For a long time I have always equated the stock market with the US economy. Record earnings by large multi-national firms and great earnings growth by all other firms tends to come from cheaper labor abroad and SALES abroad. The US economy is in the middle stages of serious deleveraging but now there may be critical consumer mass out there around the world to replace that demand. I saw that 60% plus of Apple earnings were retrieved from overseas. That is a shocking number for a US centric thinker.

To be sure there are currents of hot money, free liquidity, and animal spirits pushing many stocks to levels that make no sense. At this time I cannot see a reason not to go after the best ideas and the best setups one can work out***. The stock market may be off in it's own world, but that does not mean it cannot be touched.

***NOTE: EconomicDisconnect is the ultimate contrarian indicator. A close for the S&P500 under 1000 tomorrow cannot be ruled out after this post.

Have a good night.


Watchtower said...

"You DO NOT WANT to know how hard I got positioned for this"

I hope your big trade goes well!

JH's book arrived today, went home for lunch and it was in the mailbox as promised.
You are indeed a man of your word.

Thanks my man, much appreciated!

Watchtower said...

JH, I don't know if you'll visit here tonight but so far your book is shaping up really good, an enjoyable read!

Jennifer Hillier said...

I'm here!

Yay, Watchtower! I hope you like it the whole way through! Definitely looking forward to hearing your thoughts. :)

getyourselfconnected said...

GYSC alaways delivers! A winner from Hawaii even got his book today, amazing! Hope you like it Watchtower and no you don't want to know about the semi trade, lol.

JH, thanks for the Twitter follow. I still have two books left, maybe I can Twit them away?

scharfy said...

"For a long time I have always equated the stock market with the US economy"

This ain't your fathers S&P. They've gone global, financed in the bond market in the last two years at retarded rates, cut the fat and are crushing it.

It isn't good, it just is.

Good blogging as of late.

GawainsGhost said...

Since I don't play in the stock market, I have no idea what's going on there. I do think it's going through a mania though.

I don't think the stock market is an indication of the economy. Jobs and incomes are. Most investors in the stock market are institutional, pension funds, hedge funds and the like. Only a few are small players like you, GYC.

I hope your gamble pays off, because that is exactly what it is, a gamble. You win some, you lose some. That's life.

It's the same in real estate, or any other business for that matter. Fundamentals are all that matter. How well constructed is the house? Does it require repairs? Where is it located? What school district is it in? Those are the things that determine the price a buyer is willing to pay for it.

As far as Ms. Hillier's book goes, since you have two left send one to me. I'll read it and write a detailed critique. I did study literary criticism in graduate school, you know. It was one of the most intellectually challenging courses I ever took. We read everything from Plato to Derrida (who was an idiot).

Jennifer Hillier said...

GawainsGhost said: "As far as Ms. Hillier's book goes, since you have two left send one to me. I'll read it and write a detailed critique. I did study literary criticism in graduate school, you know."

I just fainted.

Family Physicians said...

Apple Rules!

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains, email me your shipping address and I will send you a copy by weeks end. Would like to know what you think!

JH, you are on for it now........

Family Physicians,
Apple strikes again!

getyourselfconnected said...

Thanks for stopping in. Like I said things are changing.