Thursday, July 7, 2011

QE 3 by Other Means, Candlesticks, and a Favor

Plenty to roll through, lets get on with it.

There will be Friday night, so get those requests in!

A Favor
There is a economic based blog list being circulated that has all the best sites out there. People can recommend and comment on the ones they like best. Somehow, EconomicDisconnect is listed! I would love it if any reader would stop by the site, here it is:
EconomicDisconnect on the List
And hit the voting button. If you leave a comment (Disqus only, sorry!) that would be great too. Thanks so much if you do. Maybe one copy of "Creep" will be set aside for anyone I know voted for me. Shameless plug, yes.

QE 3 by Other Means
The more days go by in a "slow" economic summer the more I feel I have been hoodwinked. I think I had the basic mechanics right on my overall scheme, but was submarined by a compressed timeline and help for the "unfortunate" from all sides. What do I mean?

The ECB Will Accept Portugal Debt (and any other) No Matter the Ratings
Normal investors cannot buy junk debt if is rated so (I know, ratings agencies are a joke anyway) this is HUGE. I should have known, I outlined the whole thing a little while ago:
The Easy Solution
This is why this site is great, you can read the news of tomorrow today!!!

Unemployed Get 1 Year Free if They Have a Mortgage
Sick and gross and how things are done here. Just unreal. We should all default!

Second BIG DEAL:
Another CPI Calculation Change
Anyone in the know, knows the CPI was changed years ago to hide inflation. Not good enough. Using a "chained" inflation deal, the US can save big bucks by robbing savers and retired folks even worse! This has monster market effects as "panic buying" may ensue by 5 second chart trigger traders looking to lock in yield while they can in stocks or whatever. Another mess, and it seems the Democrats had, believe this, NO IDEA this path would screw the old folks via social security payments. Ok, I believe ya.

I have been following market stuff, but not really looking at things in depth. I made new charts tonight and I think they can show how hard a time this is to get heavily committed to the market. Still, I see nothing in charts tonight that is bearish or hint at a reversal.

Here is an SPY chart going back into April. Click for a bigger view:
I am a daily chart guy, and today the SPY printed an odd gap up candle. But look close, it is not a classic hanging man (like the one I have noted at May 31st or so) nor is it really anything at all. I would also question the uptrend length to make this a topping or reversal candle. Looks good with the Stoch not even moving down. Volume is crap awful, but what's new.

Next up, the DOW Transports, IYT:
So here we have real volume coming in, but a good dragonfly doji after a short trend up. The Stoch is flat and has no hint of turning down. How much do you want to bet this is a reversal candle? Me? Not much at all.

Last, a backed out weekly for the S%P 500:
The volume is on recess, the Stoch is JUST turning up, and no danger candle in sight!

Not an easy show to make sense of. So I won't. Waiting for some confirmation candle wise, and the jobs number tomorrow is a gamble with only the size of the upside the question. Hopefully things will settle out by Sunday night and I can work on positions then.

Have a good night.


Idiot said...

nice charts, man. here's my thinking. We essentially got the jobs number reaction today with the ADP numbers. On a news heavy day, it was jobs that dominated the action. In the very short term, I wonder if we see some selling on the news tomorrow, unless jobs are an ungodly beat. the other scenarios, small beat, match, or miss should definitely bring about selling. Seeing the near double top in the RUT/IWM and those precarious gaps on your charts make me want to scalp a short here on any strength at all.

Watchtower said...

I couldn't leave a comment on the website but it did allow me to vote, I did try though.

getyourselfconnected said...

@The Idiot,

I hear you and thanks so much fro stopping in! Still, this stuff is crazy wound upside and I don't see a candle that makes me worried. I am not short, all cash, so I don't care except this is all higjly irregular (Carol Markus).

Watchtower,, you sure you could not just vote? The little icon to the right? No comment on Disqus? That is strange.....damn.

getyourselfconnected said...

PS, is that the competition in the rear view of your Bullitt?

David Batista said...

I came, I saw . . . I voted. :) Couldn't leave a comment, tho. Maybe I wasn't looking hard enough. That, plus I had to erase my account I used to have with Disqus and really don't feel like starting a new one with them.

But good luck, man!

Watchtower said...

GYSC, I did get to vote, but the Disqus wouldn't let me comment because I have an older version of Windows Explorer, I needed to have Windows Explorer #8, but alas I do not.
It was going to take over 14 hrs (yep, 14 hrs is what my computer said) to download Explorer #8 because I live in the middle of BFE and only have access to dial-up or expensive satellite HS internet.
Being somewhat frugal, I went with dial-up even after the chiding my wife and daughter gave me.
Perhaps it's time to relent and get HS internet : )

To anyone guffawing over my choice of dial-up I will say this, my frugality (actually my wife is a bit of a tightwad too) did allow us to become debt free (new house included) back when I was 42 years old.

GYSC, that's my mug in the Bullitt's rearview mirror sportin' the wayfarers.

Small Business said...

I voted & commented on the link you provided.

GawainsGhost said...

This is what I'm talking about.