Thursday, June 23, 2011

Whiplash!

I am having bad flashbacks to the summer of two years ago, known around these parts as "the lost summer". Raining every weekend sucks and can really shorten your summer if you like outdoor things to do. Here is hoping we can get out of this recurring pattern soon, ugh.

Note: I should be attending "Bruins Night" at a New Hampshire minor league baseball game for a friends son's birthday tomorrow night so there will not be the usual Friday Night show, unless it rains! Maybe Saturday night.

Whiplash!
The cable station TNT has nothing on the markets as of late in the 'We Know Drama' theme! How about today's whiplash action?:
You saw the neck brace, yes?

I could spend some time talking about all the stuff that happened during the day, but you probably already know about it. Quick list:
-Follow through on the Bernanke "bemused speech"
-With oil dropping NOW is a great time to tap the strategic oil reserve
-Greece finds ground with IMF for a austerity deal (sure to make the strikes in that country go away!) and will vote next week

I wanted to point out one thing that I have been hammering away at as of late and that is sentiment.

If the sentiment and fear indicators are correct you would not see any reaction to a known parameter like the Greece news. Traders and others would just plod along reducing position sizes and raising cash. We are not seeing this. Every tidbit that comes out whether it be Greece or QE 3 dreams, the markets get ripped to the upside via panic buying. If you are afraid you are not looking for "a" bottom or "the" bottom, you are looking for the exits period.

Making the rounds on the Internets there are all kinds of views; bearish, bullish, neutral, confused (me). Still, the large majority are made up of folks just begging for any uptick to get long. If 30% are bullish, this seems wrong and so again I saw the metrics that gauge this stuff are not applicable in this tape. I know quite a few very good market players read here, by all means leave a comment or email me (I can check my smart phone for email during the day, amazing!) and let me know what you are seeing.

In the end, the Greek Parliament has to vote on the austerity plan next week, and it WILL pass, that is a given. The data is coming in weak (jobs numbers are atrocious!) and should for another month at least. We have a bemused FED head and a market that wants to run higher. In short, it's a mess. Unless you can make quick hit plays (like my MAKO win) this action is too crazy to get way long/short/involved. I really do wish it stops raining, this is prime time fishing time!

Have a good night.

10 comments:

Jennifer Hillier said...

I hope it stops raining for you! We had nice weather here today.

getyourselfconnected said...

How nice for you.....

David Batista said...

As I said in an earlier comment one of your posts . . . the fish are calling to you, GYSC! They're all but begging to be caught.

You know what you got to do!

Small Business said...

Poor Snooky!

sampetrova said...

I love to see Snooky but this time so poor of you..
pnr status

Anonymous said...

Get - for the record, as you probably know, I am the guy who used to regularly rip into Jeff (THTB) for his permabearishness, especially as it relates to DC. I got long in late 2008 (about 1,000 points too early) and have been since.

That said, I am now finally, FINALLY seeing some bad metrics such that I am no longer bullish. I am now officially neutral to slightly bearish position.

Thats not to say I am selling just yet. Weve got another 500 pts to the downside before I exit altogether like I did back in late 07. Still, for the first time in years, (unlike some of the chicken littles who ran for the hills 100 times in the past 2.5 years), I am paying attention.

Just thought you would like to know.

getyourselfconnected said...

Anon,
If i am correct who you are then yes you did get constructive on markets at a good time. Would love to know what metrics are worrying you now. I am neutral leaning bearish until qe3 arrives. I still think now is quick hit time not a great time to get aggressive either way.

CT-Hilltopper said...

Please dedicate "Fire, Water, Burn" by the Bloodhound Gang to ben Bernanke and the sheeple on your rock block.

Use the video where they are singing at the retirement home for the deaf.

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, it's been raining down here for the last few days too, thunder and lightning storms. Power outages, loss of internet, are a bitch.

As for Saturday Night Entertainment, I have a couple of recommendations.

The James Gang, "Walk Away."

Blue Oyster Cult, "Don't Fear the Reaper."

Black Sabbath, "Country Girl."

I'm still revising your real estate report.

getyourselfconnected said...

C-T, will have to take a look.

Gawains,
I am sort of hoping for a power outage; I bought a HUGE natural gas generator plumbed right into the house a couple years ago after the mega ice storms and it has yet to have a workout! I once lost a $400 bet to the wife because I was so sure "Don't Fear the Reaper" was by The Grateful Dead"! Oops.