Wednesday, June 1, 2011

THE HORROR!!!!

Ok, my internet is crap due to crazy harsh thunderstorms. An actual tornado made landfall in southern Massachusetts (Springfield) and there is substantial damage. I am on the north side of the state, so hopefully things will quiet down soon.

Deck Staining
My last major house project that I will be doing myself before I reserve weekends for mainly fishing will be staining my deck. It is now weathered in enough to take stain (second year). I am overwhelmed with all I have read so if you have some simple advice and ideas, by all means HELP ME!

THE HORROR!!!!
Sometimes I think this stuff gets too funny, pure comedy even.

By now most readers will be aware economic data has been getting softer and showing signs of a real slow down. A real slow down from a mediocre level to be sure, but still a slow down. The housing market is still a mess and will be for years as I have written about many times. This impairs the banks, and the banking sector (XLF) was murdered again today. I cannot cover all the data, you know where it is.

A while back I wrote my plan to trade this market should my idea that a serious correction in stocks was on the way. I postulated in this post what the levels I am watching are. It's all there. Today's action feeds that story, but the S&P still closed above 1307, where I was going to get very interested in going short. My trigger is far lower, at S&P 500 1280.

So some flaccid data and a one day drop in the markets are enough to make the safety pin holding Wall Streets diaper up come undone. This CNBC story is something you are going to have to get used to; that and lower stock prices to get the FED to do "something":
Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff
That is NOT a Zero Hedge headline, but a CNBC lead off. A cliff? Really? Anyways, relevant section from Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London. :
"And right now, the economic data is suggesting that however measly you may think a 3 percent yield is on a 10-year Treasury, the yield should probably be a fair bit lower given what’s going on in the US economy," said Riddell.
"You’ve also got to wonder at what point the markets for risky assets start noticing, too."
"QE3 anybody?" asks Riddell.
It is already starting.

There are a number of writers that I respect very much that feel the FED is done. Some think politically they cannot keep on with QE. There may be other reasons, even that it is not needed. I cannot disagree more. Quantitative easing has always been a outright promise to back speculation (not just in silver) but across all asset types. It has worked. Now it once again at the end and that support is really taken as a given here. If the FED is all done and explicitly says so, my 10% down targets are going to be conservative. How much off the top does a finished and on the sidelines FED take from markets? I don't think it can or will happen. What do you think?

Have a good night.

8 comments:

watchtower said...

"What do you think?"

Well I don't know what the Fed will do but I'm pretty sure Stagflationary Mark is pondering another S & P 1200 'Rubicon' post : )

getyourselfconnected said...

Probably a safe bet, did you see his weight loss post? Best of luck.

Mr Slippery said...

I, too, was expecting a serious correction. This is probably just the start. I was not planning to short, but I did move a chunk of funds into long bonds, both corporate and treasury last week. Today was a good day for both.

This looks just like the end of QE1 to me and I am doing what worked last year. Will we get another Jackson Hole surprise from Ben on QE3? That would be another trigger point to move stuff around. Otherwise, my end of year guess for the SP500 is 1100.

getyourselfconnected said...

Mr Slippery,
I mean I guess the replica of the end of QE 1 is too obvious, except no one else seems to think so or say it out loud. I agree and have made my call.

Jennifer Hillier said...

If you get any good tips on deck staining, please pass them my way, because it's time to stain our deck too (we're also at the two-year mark). I want to cry just thinking about it.

GawainsGhost said...

Since I do not have a deck, I couldn't tell you how to stain one. My advice would be to hire a bonded professional contractor. He could probably do the job in a day, and the work would be insured. But I understand the do-it-yourself attitude; there is a certain amount of pride in that.

The problem with all this quantitive easing, money printing, federal spending is that it crowds out private investment. There will be no economic recovery based on speculation. Only when private investors are confident of an adequate return will there be economic growth, job creation and rising wages.

Absent that, the speculators and the federal government will go bankrupt.

David Batista said...

I have nothing to add today, as if I know nothing about decks (stained or unstained) and even less about the market.

But, hey, I saw a kitten on the way to work today!

I win. :)

P.S. -- Your blog, for some reason, seems to be one of the few that I can comment outside of my home PC. Yay!

getyourselfconnected said...

Wow David! Was it a blcak cat, the same black cat as before, or a different cat? The matrix has been changed!

JH,
not many tips, but I will document how I screw up so you can avoid it!

Gawains,
I am doing the deck, but the new roof, house painting, tree service (removing a few, plenty of trimming) and one other thing yet to be decided will draw down the home improvement funds for the summer. Hit the donate button and I can hire a pro, LOL!