Tons of stuff to get ready for the fishing outing tomorrow. I have a 4 am wake up call for some smallmouth bass at the greatest body of water in Massachusetts, the Quabbin Reservoir. Brief note version below.
I Was Wrong and Maybe Right
I closed out my positions in SH (-2%) and PSQ (-1.2%) today. Minimal losses, and I had already set the exit point (S&P 500 over 1300) so it is what it is. I was wrong; I thought the market had been pricing in slower economic data as well as the problem QE 2's end would pose to cash flows into stocks. Even me, the perma bear, bear shitter, gloom and doomer, glass always half empty (a scientist says the glass's volume is .5 actualized, HA!) never spent a pixel on the Greek debt situation except in passing. I never figured the 100% sure bailout was ever worth getting scared over, certainly not a "second Lehman", geez cut it out already. This week the market recouped almost all losses since the big downturn a few weeks ago on Greek debt rollover news. Ok. I was wrong here and what can you do. When the actual traders get back next week and volume picks up, I expect the S&P to rocket to 1400 or more no doubt.
But alas, I was right about something. There was not extreme bearishness nor fear. No freaking bear or nervous manager is going to pour into a market up 3% in two days, no human one anyway. Seems I was correct on the sentiment indicators being 100% wrong. So I was wrong and right during the same week, nice!
Ok, off to tie on hooks and pack supplies, catch you all tomorrow.
Have a good night.