Wednesday, June 29, 2011

I Was Wrong and Maybe Right

Tons of stuff to get ready for the fishing outing tomorrow. I have a 4 am wake up call for some smallmouth bass at the greatest body of water in Massachusetts, the Quabbin Reservoir. Brief note version below.

I Was Wrong and Maybe Right
I closed out my positions in SH (-2%) and PSQ (-1.2%) today. Minimal losses, and I had already set the exit point (S&P 500 over 1300) so it is what it is. I was wrong; I thought the market had been pricing in slower economic data as well as the problem QE 2's end would pose to cash flows into stocks. Even me, the perma bear, bear shitter, gloom and doomer, glass always half empty (a scientist says the glass's volume is .5 actualized, HA!) never spent a pixel on the Greek debt situation except in passing. I never figured the 100% sure bailout was ever worth getting scared over, certainly not a "second Lehman", geez cut it out already. This week the market recouped almost all losses since the big downturn a few weeks ago on Greek debt rollover news. Ok. I was wrong here and what can you do. When the actual traders get back next week and volume picks up, I expect the S&P to rocket to 1400 or more no doubt.

But alas, I was right about something. There was not extreme bearishness nor fear. No freaking bear or nervous manager is going to pour into a market up 3% in two days, no human one anyway. Seems I was correct on the sentiment indicators being 100% wrong. So I was wrong and right during the same week, nice!

Ok, off to tie on hooks and pack supplies, catch you all tomorrow.

Have a good night.

4 comments:

Jennifer Hillier said...

4 am wakeup call? You're hardcore!

Um... what's a bear shitter?

Be sure to post pics of anything you catch! Otherwise we won't believe you. :)

Johnny said...

Gracias.

Anonymous said...

While you may have been wrong, the degree of "wrongness" counts for something in my book.

Had you made some hysterical call like S&P is going to see a Lehman style CRASH (100+ points in 5 trading sessions), you would deserve alot more brow beating than for making some germane call that didnt work out.

Right now its 84 degrees. Weather guy says it will be 80 degrees tomorrow and turns out its 82. Your response, "ehh No biggie". But suppose the weather guy says its gonna crash down to 54 tomorrow and turns out its 82. Your response "WTF dude - are you an idiot???"

By the way, I am wrong too, and not because of Greece. The latest set of leading/coincident indicators came in much better than I expected. Suddenly, the same economic "muddle through" we have seen 2009-2011 looks to be back on the table. Im still bearish for now but closer to the "neutral" position than I was last week.

I was wrong about where I thought the indicators were going to be, and if I slide all the way back to neutral/slight bull, I will be wrong to have been bearish for the first time since 07. I am uber long so thank god I didnt actually sell anything yet. Still, it sucks to have to admit "I was wrong" - but I was...

getyourselfconnected said...

JH,
a bear shitter is either a) someone who always thinks the market will go down, or b) anyone that thinks the market will go down. Subtle difference but the perma bulls (90% of investors) see it that way. I am exhausted after the day out on the boat. But, I did get s shipping notice from Amazon about a certain writers book!

Anon,
I still cannot believe all that drama over 6-8 weeks was about Greece, I just cannot. But the market is a funny thing. Thanks for the kind words.