Monday, April 11, 2011

Ya Suspect!

Super nice here today, 75 degrees! Of course now the cold rain moves in for two days just to ruin a good weather mood. Such is life in New England.

Writing Samples
Loyal reader Watchtower, who must have a perfect memory, recalls another item I wrote a while back after attending a lights out great Depeche Mode concert. If you are interested in that writing sample, you can find it in this post. Thanks to all for the kind words.

Ya Suspect!

Catch it at the 0:46 second mark on.

There was some weird action today in two stocks I have been involved in. Now it just may be a random sort of thing, but it is this kind of funny business that will make one want to pack it up and head out from playing this market at all.

First up, Western Refining (WNR) posted a premarket sale this morning at a price of $12.00. What's the big deal? The previous close was $17.50 or so! The stock opened up normally but that early sale generated plenty of confusion and questions. Another "fat finger" trade? Who knows. Very strange though, but it was just the beginning.

Transcend Services (TRCR) had it's very own mini flash crash today. Wonderful. After closing Friday at $23.50 TRCR opened down as much as 15% to $19.64! The stock recovered a bit and I exited the stock at $22.30 for a nasty 5% loss. Here is a 10 minute chart:

That long tail on the monster down move is on huge volume.

Now this could have been one large block sale priced to sell, but it just seems way out of line here. TRCR is a low volume traded stock to be sure, but this is still on the wild side.

When the overall "Flash Crash" happened a while back, stocks seemed magnetically attracted to the very bottom of the crash lows. I think the same may be true for these two stocks. I am not waiting to find out.

Silver and gold miners (I am long PAAS, AUY, SA, and CEF) took brutal beatings today and some even broke down from where their previous break out occurred. Ugly stuff all over for me. With just two weeks to go until vacation I am looking for exits before I leave.

This market is getting harder to trade as overnight gaps, mini crashes, fat finger trades, and other games make entry and exit points almost impossible to put in place unless you are in front of a computer logged into your trading account. Some of us mere mortals have to actually work a day job which precludes doing that. I am no fool, I know what I am into here, but right now the market is full of monkeys and clowns so unless you like bananas and red, squeaky noses, it's probably best to sit this out.

I say to this market, Ya Suspect!!:

Have a good night.


watchtower said...

If only my mind could see the future as well as it recalls the past : )

I hate to see that you had some losses but overall it seems as if you are still on top.
I'll admit that what you are doing would scare the hell out of me but that's why I'll probably never be rich.
What's that saying? Oh yeah, "You've got to risk it for the biscuit!"

getyourselfconnected said...

You of all know how conservative I am in finance. I am still up nicely since the beginning of the year, but I have been getting dinged up more as of late. The games today with WNR and TRCR are pushing me towards backing out of this market for a bit, too much baloney (its a big hot dog) going on.

watchtower said...

"You of all know how conservative I am in finance."

Yes, and that is why I'm not worried about you doing this.

I figured you were probably still up and I am relieved to hear you say so.

I guess it's unreasonable for me to expect you to win them all : )

getyourselfconnected said...

"And you always know when an engine blows that a man can't win them all. You can push that car just a little too far in a Sunday afternoon."
Stroker Ace by the Charlie Daniels Band.

I don't want my site to be a 'trading site' so I limit my posts to broad ideas and what I am doing. Stops, position sizing, and going back and riding a reverse trend techniques are not things I want to spend time on here. In the end I am working this stuff (new tools) in real scenarios to see how it goes, just like in my outline a while back. Besides, my wife would kill me if I lose money, lol :)

Jennifer Hillier said...

Love Good Will Hunting... how come so many of my favorite movies take place in the Boston area?

I actually think I understood most of your post today, even the stock stuff. Progress!

David Batista said...

LOL! Jen and I are in the same boat. But luckily for us you don't *only* talk about the market on this site. :)

Oh, and yes, the temps here in the northeast yesterday were positively spring like. Only to return back to winter with overcast skies and cold rains. But I hear the end of the week is shaping up to be a return to Spring!

Hope you got the grill ready . . .

getyourselfconnected said...

I wont put the grill on it's stone patio until I get back from vacation. I so miss grilled food instead of indoor cooked stuff, cannot wait.

I try to keep it as simple as possible, I am easily confused!