Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Is This How the FED "Manages Expectations"?

Middle of the week once again. I finished Stephen King's novel "Under the Dome" last night. For 90% of the book I thought it was as fine a work as any King masterpiece, but King's inability to write solid endings is becoming his biggest shortfall later in his career. This book is no different. A little disappointing, but overall a nice novel.

Obligatory Robotic Scare
Reader Scharfy communicates a disturbing new advance in cybernetic enhancement. As it is, the following work was done at Raytheon Corp, which I can almost see from my back porch (You Betcha!):
Raytheon Unveils 2nd Generation Exoskeleton Robotic Suit
Raytheon’s second-generation exoskeleton (XOS 2), essentially a wearable robotics suit, was unveiled for the first time recently during an event at the company’s Salt Lake City research facility. XOS 2 is lighter, stronger and faster than its predecessor, yet it uses 50 percent less power, and its new design makes it more resistant to the environment.
While not a pure robot in this case, the march forward continues!

I Say Again
Maybe I am not that bright in things legal (100% likely) and way too sure that the bounds of legality will be thrown aside in the name of the "recovery" (150% likely) but every time I see a headline about the fraudulent mortgage/summons/contracts practices by the mega banks, I call no joy. As readers know I harbor lucid dreams of the TBTF banks going down the drain but this just is not going to amount to anything. As I have stated before, it would be against the narrative and so expect soon some kind of side step legislation to get around legal rights and law.

A few samples:
It's Really On: JPM Tells CNBC It Is Systematically Reviewing Foreclosures

20% of Florida Cases Have Problems, Including Phony Court Summons

Is This How the FED "Manages Expectations"?
I figured that when everyone, including Calculated Risk, were now sure of QE 2.0 to be rolled out in November the FED would try and throw a few guys up to say "we are still thinking about it". The FED does like to play their little games of not really showing their hand even though all their cards are QE's of varying suits. One you are a one trick pony you have to dive off a platform every now and again to maintain interest.

Here is your example of "managing expectations" by a mess of varied blather:

For QE and Beyond
-Bernanke based on last FED statement (voting member)

-Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren gets aggressive:
I’ve called this talk “How Should Monetary Policy Respond to a Slow Recovery?” My answer to that question is: vigorously, creatively, thoughtfully, and persistently, as long as we have options at our disposal. And we do have options, despite having pushed short-term rates to the zero lower bound.
For an encore to go and buy metals hand over fist:
Yet all in all, my firm view is that it is important that policymakers be open to implementing policies consistent with achieving full employment, and an appropriate level of inflation, within a reasonable time frame.
The "reasonable time frame" is a scary escalation.

Ok, now for some water on that fire:

-Tom Hoenig (voting member) offers that this stuff is not working:
In Washington, he is the burr in Fed Chairman Bernanke’s saddle: the rogue heartland banker who keeps dissenting alone -- for the sixth straight time on Sept. 21 -- to protest the Fed’s rock- bottom interest-rate policy. Hoenig warns that the Bernanke majority is setting the country up for an as-yet-unknown asset bubble: the next dot-com or subprime craze. He can’t tell yet where the boom-and-bust will materialize, but he can feel it coming, like a Missouri wheat farmer senses in his bones the storm that’s just over the horizon.

-In the same Mish item Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser (non voting member until next year):
The Fed must be credible. Protecting that credibility is why, based on my current outlook, I do not support further asset purchases of any size at this time. As I said earlier, asset purchases in our current economic environment can do little if anything to speed up the return to full employment. But if the public believes that they can and is disappointed, it may have less confidence that the Fed will act to raise inflationary expectations if needed. Because I see little gain at this point, and some costs, I would prefer not to engage in further asset purchases at this time.
The FED is not omnipotent and should not pretend they are is how I read that.

Quite a mix of ideas. How anyone can think lowering borrowing rates will do anything has no idea how low they are! Check this:
$29 Billion 7 Year Auction Comes At Record Low Yield And Record High Bid To Cover
Today's 7 Year came at the lowest yield in history or 1.89%, while the Bid To Cover surged to an all time high 3.04.
1.89% for 7 year money?!! How would 7 year cash at 1.3% change anything? Crickets.........

Add to all of this that the FED Audit looks to be going forward:
Fed To Disclose Emergency Lending Details By December 1
I will believe it when I see it.

I really think the FED is pissed Congress has not done something on their own by now and so close to the election I would doubt they will.

While expectations are managed, small business has called it quits and is waiting for some kind of stable policy on many fronts including taxes, banking issues, and credit conditions. They already know the customers are in thin supply, but at this point all they can expect is the unexpected from all other angles.

Have a good night.


EconomicDisconnect said...

total zero post, wow.

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