Saturday, March 31, 2012

Ultimate Obscure Observation Repost

This morning I got an email from Mr. Stuart Cornfeld and it seems the producer and actor came across this older blog from August 20, 2011 where I made an ultimate obscure observation! His note really made my day and I was glad for the note. Enjoy it once again.

The Ultimate Obscure Observation
 It is only through my preternatural powers of observation that I caught something last night while watching the film "Old School" for maybe the 100th time. Are you ready for this?

At the beginning of the film, Luke Wilson's character gets into a cab. Here is the scene:

Ok, I was like "I KNOW THAT GUY!!!". Here is a still picture:
It took me a minute, but I had it!

This is the same actor that played the Pirate Restaurant boss in "Fast Times at Ridgemont High":

The actor is Stuart Cornfeld.

Yes, this is probably a sign I have some issues, but I am not hurting anyone right?

If you have seen the new film "Hall Pass" then the older baseball coach from the film is the same guy that was the UPS delivery man in "Legally Blonde"! I notice everything. Bend and snap that!

Have a good night.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Taking a Shot or Giving Something a Chance

Mega Millions is going to be over $500 Million dollars Friday night. If you don't hear from me by Monday, you know what happened.

Taking a Shot or Giving Something a Chance
It's been quite a different week for 2012 as volatility and market drops have come back into the mix. In the summer of 2011 a 1% SPX drop would be a great "relief rally", in early 2012 it's a bit more scary.

My focus in 2012 has been on individual names and trading longer term swings because I have stepped back a bit from active involvement in markets to work on other things. Like my fat stomach area. Is the market topping here? Will it be sell in almost May and run away? Are we going back to the environment where all you can do is take quick pop shots at the market and run away with any gain you can grab? Maybe. I don't think that is clear right now.

And until that type of situation has arrived I am focused on giving something a chance instead of taking a shot.

What I mean is best shown by a daily and weekly chart of a current long, MBFI. In January I started to get excited by what I saw in regional banks and savings and loan firms price and volume wise (with my man @swooon). In my trading account I was waiting for some things to firm up and by early February and March I was positive on the sector and several names. The daily for MBFI (click on any chart for larger view):
I was not long for the big pop over about $21 but if I had been it would have been a spot to take profits and move on (bought on 3/20/2012). But maybe there is something more going on here. The accumulation has been strong through out uptrend and sell offs have been on depressed volume. As of today the price reacted well to the 20 MDA and has survived a market sell off while remaining above the breakout area of $21. I am down on the position (about 2%) and could cut and run here.

I selected this stock based upon a weekly chart and here it is:
I don't want to talk charts all night and point out little minutia. It's marked up on chart enough.

My point here is that I am giving this (and several others set up like it) a shot here to come to terms with some price levels that could mean substantial upside if held. If the market correction gains steam and a more serious pull back is at hand, I will take the loss (or break even on others) and move on. What I am not going to do is freak out and run away from stocks that have not broken the patterns that I selected them for out of fear or panic.

Complacency has many forms. Clearly the "buy the dip" one is easy but another related one, and one I see more often, is the "sell the dip" on an uptrend. Dropping a well structured position that has not violated any real price points or patterns is easy in an uptrend because you are still up and in the money. Seeing a position through to a logical end, be it price target to upside met (Nice!) or a failure at a key level (Sucks, and your stop), is how I treat longer term trades.

Have a good night.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Position Review

Another Monday over. The elliptical at the gym is losing the war against me, I keep getting stronger every time. Feel very good, and I think my concentration has become better.

Position Review
Anytime you are in positions you have to review where they are and if the story has changed from when you bought in. The story could be technical or fundamental. Here is my own review of my open 6 longs and with minimal comments. Click on any chart for larger view.







A mixed bag, but nothing here gives me reason to sell just yet. MBFI may be the weakest of the 6 at this point.

Have a good night.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Weekly Playbook

Been a little while since I posted, hope I remember how!

Weekly Playbook
One of the most common questions I get is an inquiry how I am able to trade when I have a full time job in the science field. The answer is simplicity and preparation.

In an up trending or even sideways market I like to think of the behavior of stocks as a loose, mildly aggressive poker table. In this kind of environment there will be plenty of players (stocks) in almost every hand and you can certainly play a wide range of hands looking to win a lot of pots. If you are at the table for a long time (as in you trade all day, maybe it is your job or work) there are benefits. Hands like 5-6 and 10-8 even have life in an active table.

But if you can only sit for an hour or two your ability to be active is limited and the draw downs that come from being in so many pots may ruin any chance you have in such a small amount of time to walk away with some chips. This is most like my situation where I cannot be managing many positions during the week and constantly watching new setups emerge as the day goes on. Faced with that, you want to wait for the best hands, the strongest odds to get involved, then get involved aggressive.

So I have a wrist playbook just like an NFL quarterback:

As I am slow to adopt new technology, I do all my market homework the old school way. I write stuff down. I will be doing screens and stock charts tonight and while I use software for the charts and the iBC PPT screener for idea generation, I still write down my set up ideas in a little leather book. The one on the left (brown) is my almost full one from the last year, and my new black one which I will start tonight:

I have a simple one sheet list of my best 2-8 best ideas for the week that I take with me everyday and keep in my pocket. Depending on how I am positioned in regards to open longs I may be looking to get into anywhere from 3 to 8 names in a given week. This week I am pretty full on open longs (7 open) so maybe I only need one or two of the best setups I can find for this week.

What does this do for me?
-Cuts down the noise. On any given day you will see a hundred things that are "going" or just "went". Unless you own them already, that clutter will just eat up your attention.
-Keeps me focused on less. I cannot follow 100-200 stocks, and I doubt I could even if I was at home all day. I want to have a great feel for the small list of names I am interested in and know them in and out.
-Enforces discipline. It's easy to get lost in a sea of sectors and headlines/earnings driven stock moves.

By definition I will miss many plays by the system I am using. That's just the way it goes. By focusing on a limited list of my best ideas I increase my chances of having success that I have prepared for.

On my list the following information for any stock will be noted:
-closing price Friday
-breakout point or important price level
-what price I will pay above and below Friday's close
-stop loss price
-first possible sell target
That's all. Everything else comes from market dynamics and price. I know by heart the important index levels that I am aggressive over and where I would look to back off (I focus on SPX almost 100%).

If you are a regular person that is in markets while you work the day job consider cutting down the noise and really being prepared in a smaller number of names. If you are a pro that feels their trading has been too active or over trading has bitten you, why not step back and try a more focused approach until the "market feel" comes back.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Market Notes and Win a Copy of "Backstage Wall Street"

It was just under 80 degrees here today and more tomorrow. Spring is in the air and it feels amazing. This early warm up may bump up fishing season by a week or two. Regular readers know how much I HATE the winter.

Market Notes
Another reasonable drop at the open today and then some buying came in for most of the day. After the late run last week a drop and/or sideways action was probably in order. Sometimes you will miss a run up for various reasons, but there are some things to look for that can grab you a second chance.

A week ago I highlighted the stock WLK which sported a great weekly chart and a supportive daily chart. I bought in on March 12 and have held since. After a nice run, WLK is slowing down here, and had I missed my entry before I am presented with a lower entry than the breakout day. The key here and always is to make sure the price pause or drop is on low volume! If new breakout buyers are not running for the door a longer term swing can make sense. Here is a look at WLK and note the volume dries up on this pause (click any chart for larger view):
Another shot at an entry after a breakout is a retest of the breakout area, or "throwback". I am long CTXS and here you can see it has gone back to the breakout area around $76.80:
This drop is a bit more menacing than the WLK drop and I am not going to give this too much more room.

Lastly, I added MBFI today and here is a weekly chart for the stock:

So far nothing too damaging in the market. 2012 has been kind to the long side, but things cannot go up every single day. You can often learn more about a market on down days than all oat mania up days. Just try to listen.

Win a Copy of "Backstage Wall Street"
I discussed the launch of Joshua Brown's new book "Backstage Wall Street" last week. I am sure this book is going to be great and I am starting on it tonight.

It just so happens I bought extra copies for the express purpose of giving them away. I have two copies up for grabs. I will ship the books out to the winners of a trivia contest this weekend (I hope).

First the rules:
-Submit answers to me via my email on the top right hand corner of this site. DO NOT use the comments section or Twitter.
-The order of correct answers by time submitted is how the winners are decided. Move fast, get a book.
-One submission per person.
-I will name winners later in week and then I will email you and ask for a mailing address. If you don't really want a book shipped, don't enter.

Ok, so the 4 questions:

1.) The SS Central America ship was lost in a hurricane in 1857 off the coast of the Carolinas. The ship carried about 2 million dollars in gold and the loss of this money contributed to to what financial panic?

2.) What space probe sent back images from the surface of a Saturnian moon?

3.) What is the name of the Starship in the novel "Tau Zero"?

4.) Who is credited with the invention of the polymerase chain reaction?

Good luck.

Have a good night.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Reading Material

Almost Friday after first full week at the gym. Ready for the weekend!

Joshua Brown's "Backstage Wall Street" Book
I am sure you all know who Josh Brown, The Reformed Broker, is by now. I have the pleasure of writing the great Tumblr "Things Apple is Worth More Than" with Josh, and more than that he is also a good friend. It's hard to explain all the help I have received from my man over time. It is appreciated.

Josh has a new book out and I am excited to read it. Called "Backstage Wall Street" I can only imagine how raw and open the book will be about all the happenings behind the curtains of finance.

I bought three books and they arrived today:
Nice looking cover.

Why would I buy three? One is for me and two are for public education of course. This means I am giving away two free copies. I need to figure out what the criteria will be (contest, random number pick, etc) but will try to have something figured out for either Sunday or early next week. You want a free book, check back in.

Market Observations
I am not discussing Apple (AAPL).

Like a broken record all I can say is I have continued to see individual stocks perform (screened for of course!) and as long as that is alive and well, I am constructive here. I have 5 open swing longs and that's about as full a boat as I carry in my trading account.

This week saw newer position WLK make a nice move. CTXS, WRI, and PETD have all been good performers. BANR had a big day today, up over 7%:
WAIT A MINUTE!! Isn't BANR a savings and loan? A financial stock? Yes, it is and you may wonder after what I wrote on Tuesday about big bank stocks why I am not a hypocrite for buying any financial. Fair question.

BANR was eviscerated and about destroyed during the financial crisis. The company was in the TARP program and the Treasury sold shares today it still held. Hardly a big money center bank, calling the shots, and being made whole with bonus money paid out like nothing happened. And I doubt the Fed calls BANR executives and discusses policy.

Further, regional banks, savings & loans, and credit unions are one way to get credit moving without all the crap from the big banks. Not really a fine line at all but I could understand some confusion.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Market Notes 3-13-2012

About 70 degrees here today, just unreal. Winter has about run out of time. I am not sad to see it go. My eye is good to go, no lasting issues.

Big Banks are a "Dirty Business"
I don't want to spend much time on this topic.

Big banks are disgusting, and their collusion and partnership with the FED is stomach churning. The "Stress Test" results being first leaked then released ahead of schedule is just another blatant abuse of the financial system. Banks and the Fed, in the words of Don Vito Corleone, are a "Dirty Business":
With thousands of stocks out there I have no idea why the rush to buy in and support such crap. Returns, money, a trade bla bla bla boring. No need, none at all.

Market Notes
Today looked and felt for a while like a sort of panic buying blow off top sort of thing. Only time will tell, but I remain open minded. Some stocks I have been in or opened Monday have moved out of nice bases that were very compressed, not just some random run up out of no where. ChessNwine has an excellent study on this in today's market recap:
Stock Market Recap 3/13/2012

Here are my open positions and notes. Click any chart for larger view.

BANR (from 2/1/2012)

WRI (from 3/1/2012)

On Sunday I discussed my new focus on longer term swings based on weekly charts and I opened up 3 new positions yesterday. All trades posted in the iBC 12631 Pelican Room as soon as I am able.



Clearly all of these names do not sport vertical charts with no tether to reality. Solid basing, volume in weight, and then price movement. As long as I can find individual setups like these I am not all that interested in the indices overall.

Have a good night.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Longer Term Swing Structure

My eye is about 100% better, no more swelling at all. I will recheck with the doctor this week to make sure the cornea healing is complete. I have to admit, this was pretty scary.

It's my actual birthday tomorrow but I have been having a really nice birthday weekend. Tomorrow I start at the new gym! I am sure to be pretty sore after that.

Longer Term Swing Structure
In keeping with my more "hands off" stance and stepping back from markets I am looking to have trades on that take up the minimal amount of my time or monitoring. Actually this is the kind of trading I prefer for the most part. Most of the hard work is your homework and screening, a trade should be mechanical if it's well set up.

Simply put, I like strong weekly charts that are close to a 20 MDA/50 MDA cross (green lines crosses over blue in my charts)and have been under accumulation. If the daily chart is attractive on top of that, it's even better. I usually give a bit more room to longer term swings (multi week trades) as they can take time to resolve. Setting a 5-6% stop loss and letting the action happen without watching allows the patterns to go about their business without a nervous or bored eye watching them for what to do. Using the iBC PPT screener has given me my best three ideas for new swings over the next couple weeks. Here are the daily and weekly charts for the three I am considering. Click on any for larger view.


Weekly (Has not crossed yet, but may early in week)

Weekly (Also has not yet made cross)

Again, not in any rush here. PETD is most advanced setup of the three and this week should give a clearer picture on CTXS and WLK.

Have a good night.

Friday, March 9, 2012

Vintage Cartoons

Not a usual Friday around here, but I had this post already rolling around in the mind attic so here it goes.

Vintage Cartoons
I was an 80's child and I loved all the classic cartoons. Clearly "The Transformers" was my favorite, but there were so many others. Here is a selection from that era, maybe you will know some of them.

The Mobile Armored Strike Kommand cartoon featured pretty wild vehicles that morphed into attack craft as well as pilot that would put on masks which themselves had special powers! This one was so cool:
Vintage IROC Camaro toy with pilot:
M.A.S.K battled V.E.N.O.M (Vicious Evil Network of Mayhem) and it was a fun show.

Bionic fighters against whatever evil comes along in the show, the Silverhawks were reasonably entertaining. Led by Quicksilver and flanked by such interesting bionic hawks as Col. Bluegrass who played a sonic guitar and sported a cowboy hat. Picture:
Vintage Quicksilver toy:
Too funny.

One of my favorite growing up! The Centurions were based out in space at their own station and were transported anywhere needed to fight Doc Terror and his plans on Earth. The three centurions, featuring Ace McCloud, had a huge array of weapons and systems they could call upon to use. Old picture:
Ace McCloud toy with equipment:

My personal all time favorite, Grendizer was the ultimate in Japanese mecha anime. Great story, great music, and bad ass robots. What else could you want?:
"Grendizer GOOOO!"

Oh, the memories.

Have a good night.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Reduction Sauce

It's always something.

It is my birthday weekend (it's on Monday, but Monday's are not fun days!) and of course, OF COURSE, I get something in my left eye driving home yesterday and it was really bothering me. I went out to dinner and I was getting more and more concerned as whatever it was had not worked itself fee.

When I got home I flushed it out with some saline drops and still no progress. Looking at it in the mirror I saw a black speck right over where the green of my eye is. It was chilling. The speck would not flush out nor move and I was getting more alarmed. I went for the emergency room visit. The nurse practitioner was excellent and checked for everything. I had that fluorescein dye put in and before he did anything he said there were not abrasions on the cornea. He did see the speck of dirt/dust/debris and gave me lidocaine to numb the eye. The speck was removed with a fine Q-tip thing but after the fluorescein dye showed a small abrasion where the debris had been. Must have really been jammed in there. The eye felt better.

This morning my left eyelid was about swollen shut from all the abuse and I had to take a day off from work. I have to go to an opthamologist next week for follow up care. I was sitting on the couch today and thinking about my job, my trading, my writing, and my body and it hit me.

I am pushing things too hard.

Up at 5am and a full day at a real job where I am a scientist. Long commute home and then I am doing a full evening effort on house things like dinner, clean up, and taking care of the dog and cat. Then it's writing this blog and putting a market hat on, often well into the night. Then it's all done over and over again. The real pros of the market devote their full time effort to a full on day of work, and now I know why they are the pros. It takes a lot.

The cornea abrasion is a random event, but not some other health related things I have been going through. I don't sleep enough. I have gained 10 pounds in about 6 months. I get sick easier and while I have loads of mental energy, physically I am feeling a bit spent. I have a wonderful wife whom has supported my efforts, but has been mostly only able to spend time with me mainly on weekends. I go on vacation in late April into May for a long Bahamas stay and I don't like how I look at all. At all.

And I have had enough.

I am implementing the "Less is More" plan:
I am proud of my work here on this site. Over the past 12 months readership has exploded and I have met so many great people here and on Twitter. I like to count so many as my real friends and not just blurbs on a blog or hollow interaction in other forums. The support and help I have had cannot be bought nor asked for, only given freely. I am so thankful.

I have joined a gym, and have a plan going forward to do things I have missed out on. Fishing (it's almost Spring!), back to charcoal smoking food, vacation, and plenty of other things.

I am not falling off the face of the Earth. I am looking to do maybe 2 posts a week for the near future and they will be more macro based observation posts. I am about a 5X better longer term trader than a short term one and I would love to really devote all my market time to that kind of trading (investing?) going forward. I will be scaling way back my Twitter time as well. My email at the top right is always available and I answer every single one, non scam related. My good friends can always count on me and find me no problem.

While I am excited to do things I really want to do for a better me, writing this post is making me really sad. It's not a goodbye, but it almost feels that way. I give a lot of myself here and I hope I helped and made a difference.

Have a good night.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Extent of the Damage

It is going to be over 60 degrees here over the next two days. It was 7 degrees last night. Wild weather indeed!

Extent of the Damage
A day or so ago J.C. Parets of All Star Charts asked on Twitter what would be the least expected market action going forward. I offered two:
1.) A slow grind higher for another 10% on the SPX
2.) A fast 10% collapse over a few days on the SPX

What is most expected right here is a 3-5% pull back (depends where you start the measuring) in the broad indices and then a resumption of buyer interest and the primary uptrend. As this is 2012 and not 2011 I do prefer that to hold true.

Looking over charts tonight I see plenty of substantial damage to many names. What's even more dangerous is some names and sectors are showing tempting hammer prints right now, just daring you to take a shot on a rebound. Silver miner EXK is one and there are many names in the metals sector looking the same (click for larger view):
A gap up tomorrow would result in the rare "abandoned baby" candle pattern and could, I repeat COULD, be a huge bottom signal. To be fair, this could just keep flying lower as well.

A name I like to track because it runs fairly predictable within some set ranges is TPC. After today this stock is set to go into the lower range once again:
A turnaround would set a 3rd higher low for TPC, and thus it's worth watching.

In short I am defensive here and will be looking for confirmation of some reversal prints and for battered names to firm up. The very expected dip has now arrived. It's not my trading style or really an option for me to watch movement all during the day to then pounce so I will not be trying to grab a bottom here. Should things settle out and buyers return there will be plenty of time to get back aggressive. If things get worse then I will be limited in exposure. It's a muddled picture right now so clearly my feelings on the market are muddled.

Today I closed my WFM trade for -0.8% to have a larger cash position. I still hold BANR and WRI.

Have a good night.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Green Stocks on Red Days

Monday. Enough said.

Trading Account Update
No changes in trading positions. BANR was actually green all day today as was WRI. WFM is still holding up well. This morning's selling was a bit more nasty than usual for 2012, but buyers came back in and bought stocks for the second half of the day.

There was plenty of grumbling today about a possible China slow down as well as the Fed coming out via their favorite channel, WSJ's John Hilsenrath, and hinted maybe they are holding off on more stimulus. Not a very friendly mix at all. For now it pays to view market action rather than try and over think what may come of these two important new stories. Keep in mind that money managers have been putting cash into stocks (as noted by The Reformed Broker) and that is unlikely to go full reverse without clear data a slowdown is at hand.

Green Stocks on Red Days
Over the past couple of weeks there have actually been some down days with plenty of red showing in stocks. Down days need not be hated or feared though, sometimes they actually can help you see a new direction.

First off, some disclaimers. This post pertains to a generally up trending market or one that is set in a range sideways. Down trend markets get a few more layers of complication and I am leaving that out for now. Green stocks on red days is not usually a one day event that you can pin a whole trading plan around, but more of a weight of evidence sort of thing. With that said, here we go.

On down days I know I tend to focus most on any names I am long. That's natural and makes sense. Second up for most will be the big "tell" stocks or commodities like AAPL, SLV, or maybe copper and oil. Again, this makes sense and is intuitive.

But on down days, or even better, a string of them the market may hint or whisper where the action may turn up next.

You can skip over any ETF short like a PSQ or a TZA. Funny thing but on a down day I will read how the short funds are "working". Really? I kind of hope so. Also any stock that has had positive earnings news or positive news headlines will merit a question mark as that could be a one day pop sort of thing and may not apply to a general market move. Also keep in mind "safe" plays like bonds, utilities, tobacco, or staples will act more like a weigh station for money and not a new push into those sectors for a longer move.

On "dip" days money will want to get in to names they have missed or names they want to rotate into. I like to think of runs in the market as waves of the ocean, as the power of fund flows pours out on the beach, another wave is right behind riding in the next move:
The easiest way to mine for this is some kind of screening tool. iBC's ChessNwine shows how the PPT tools allow for easy screening of stocks gaining ground (I am a subscriber).

It pays to make sure on down days you are keeping track of green stocks. If buyers want in even on pull backs it is a clear statement of the desire and direction of money flow. Taken over days should that happen, it is one of the more powerful signals I know of rotation and can point you in a new profitable direction.

For the ultra nerdy you may try to plot buy volume with price over time in something called a Gantt Chart. Used in the professional world this type of layout tracks changes and progress over time. There is no reason why one cannot apply this chart to show sector rotation and stock run lifetime in a cycle over time:
I actually used to make these but have been a touch too busy to keep them up. I need to get back to it.

Have a good night.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

I am Afraid of This Birthday

Great NASCAR race today at Phoenix! Kevin Harvick almost won in the end, but ran out of gas. Still hung on for second.

I may have a short post up later on after I am done screening for ideas this week. I would say I am more cautious coming in to this week then I have been all year so far. It's really a key week for momentum going forward or stalling out and reversing. I have a more personal post tonight that has been rolling around in my head for a little while.

I am Afraid of This Birthday
I am a huge lover of Christmas. The only thing bigger to me during the year are the birthdays of those close to me. I mean, it's YOUR day right? I am usually excited about birthdays and I really enjoy them.

But not this year.

For reasons that are not scientific, grounded in fact, or even make much sense I am afraid for my birthday this year. I will turn 36 next Monday (the 12th) and I have been wrestling with a inner fear about this one for about 5 years.

It all started when my father died long ago in 1996 at age 50. I never thought anything could happen to that man, even with his many issues. A heart attack caused by a transient blood clot in his heart rendered him legally brain dead, and a little over a month later he finally passed on. A horrific was to go and a terrible thing to see, trust me. I never really thought about something like that before, never really felt even a hint of mortality. I was a stupid kid after all.

But really it's all about 2007.

My older brother ruptured his Achilles tendon doing a stupid cartwheel trick (I have no idea) and he was offered two options. A longer recovery period without surgery or a surgical procedure to speed up the re-attachment process and a faster recovery time. My brother lived in Cambridge and walked everywhere so it was no surprise he opted for the surgery, though my Mother advised strongly against it.

A couple of weeks after the surgery and in a huge cast, my brother suffered a double pulmonary embolism by dislodged blood clots and died within minutes.

He was 36 years old.

I turn 36 next Monday.

I have been afraid of this birthday for years. I know it's a crazy thing. And no one can really help me. How much can the words "there is nothing that was not a freak accident in both cases, the odds are against anything happening, just relax" really soothe?

I cannot forget the terror and sorrow when my mother called me to tell me my brother had died on the telephone. That woman has had to bear so much sadness in her life, I felt a little part of me die to see her so lost. I know parents are not supposed to have favorites, but I am "her boy" and I would trade all I have for a guarantee that nothing will happen to me while she is still alive. I am scared, I do not think she could handle it at all.

I am sharing this because I have sat on this fear for a long time. Maybe getting it out into the light will help me confront it. I know that this is not very rational, but I feel it just the same. 36 is coming up next Monday one way or the other.

Have a good night.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Finely Festooned Friday

Messy snow here but commute in and out was no problem. Going to rain all day tomorrow. Dark and grey, dark and grey.

Market Observations and Activity
What's left to say really? Things are stalled out and today there was some beatings handed out. While one of my positions, CACI, was not really near my stop out I cut it today for a -2% loss. I may have been early on this one breaking over $60, or late in a market cycle. Just looked weak and I wanted to lighten up. BANR was in a fist fight at the $20.50 level on high volume. WRI hung around. WFM was the only bright spot, closing strong over the $82 level.

Next week is pivotal if a higher run is in the cards. Market looks tired. Many solid looks that have been performing are at best stalling or at worst going in full reverse. There are some things working, but most I see are earnings or news based run ups. This does not mean a huge bear market is upon us, and I do not believe one is. This sideways snooze fest could go on but it's not worth me chasing names during that kind of market. More on Sunday and will look at more things.

Friday Night Entertainment
Let me see what I can find.

Choose Your Own Adventure Books!
Came across a great post over at Weird Universe that discussed the old "Choose Your Own Adventure" books! I so loved them all when I was a kid. Seems the inventor, Edward Packard, now has them on Apple products (of course!) like the iPhone and iPad. Here are some pictures:
Cool! Best ever were the "Lone Wolf" series of books by Joe Dever.

Loved this Abstruse Goose comic from today. In all the realms if disbelief the USA will not adopt the metric system! "Chrono-Synclastic Infundibulum" (click for larger view):
Too funny.

Optical Illusions
Just like the arrow in the FedEx logo is all I see now, after this the "&" character will never be the same:
mobile phone texting autocorrect - Autocowrecks: An (amper)Sandy Butt
see more epicfails

Film Clips
Check these out!

One of the best films I have ever seen was the handling of the King Arthur legend in "Excalibur". This clip is when Arthur is saved by the Holy Grail and then leads his knights back out to fight with some epic music on tap:

Ozzy will often start his shows with this very song. For extra credit, what song is this?

The only saving grace for "The Phantom Menace" was Darth Maul. Total bad ass Sith. I can spool the scene at the start of this clip when the doors open and the music plays for hours:


Rock Blogging
Music for the masses.

Leading off tonight is a classic as picked by Sal Arnuk of Themis Trading. Open the show with Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison doing the blues!:

I love this performance so much, thanks! Follow Sal on Twitter @ThemisSal

MY friend and fellow 12631 trader Arctic Gambino has really turned me on to the Black Keys. Catch this live show of "Howlin' for You":

Very nice selection. Check Arctic out on Twitter @a_bh_a

Ok, a little something different. Please give this one a shot and listen to the end, it's really too funny! Bryan Bowers and "The Scotsman":

Awesome, yes?

Via Twitter here is my man @CapCube with a request for Weezer's "Troublemaker":

Not bad at all.

Ok, one more chance at the song from "Excalibur" and like I said, Ozzy loves to open with it. Here is "I Don't Know" with Randy Rhoads:

Unreal good. I get chills on this one.

Two left.

I don't know why Hole ended up dying, ok I do Courtney! Plenty of wonderful songs left behind though. How about "Violet":

Love that one!

Last call, grab a drink, a girl, or a stapler!

Turn the speakers WAY Up for Jimi Hendrix and "All Along the Watchtower":

Have a good night.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

The Oil is Too Damn High!

Pretty large snow storm here the past two days. Heavy wet snow, but the roads were in good shape and had almost no issues with commute.

Tomorrow is Friday night, so get those requests in.

Position Review and Portfolio Changes
It's been a more wild week than markets have seen. The drop on Wednesday was somewhat more nasty than anything else seen in 2012. Again, you have to keep perspective.

I was stopped out of the position I had started on Monday in CTCT for -2.8% loss. Looking over the chart the damage to the potential breakout over $32 is not mortal, but a stop is a stop, it hits, you walk.

I have been in BANR since 2/1/12 and as it passed the key level of $20 I was liking it, as it passed $20.50 it looked better and today it was over $21 for almost the whole session and ended right at that level (click any chart for larger view):
Still holding and real buy interest here.

I am still long CACI from Monday. It's still has to prove it can stay over $60 or I am moving on. WFM continues to look solid and closed over $82 today.

I added WRI (Weingarten Realty Inc) as I had a buy order set should WRI get over the $25.20 mark and it did today. The stock was moving well all day until the oil fear induced meltdown late day (will discuss below). Still, the close over $25.20 was my trigger and WRI may get out of this range soon:
That is where I am as of today in trading account.

The Oil is Too Damn High!
"The oil is TOO DAMN HIGH!"

I was going to try and make a technical case on oil prices and the general stock market, but why? It's common sense. The oil is too damn high!

Late in the day after some real equity progress Twitter went aflame with oil price quotes. The run was insane and high oil prices are not good for anything, period. There is no way to contort that one data point any other way. Whether a Saudi Oil pipeline was or was not sabotaged or had an accident, oil going higher will cap equities in my opinion. It is so like Iran to do something like this, so I do not dismiss it out of hand. Still, some level of speculation has moved into oil, was it the silver crew moving on?

It's a mess but what I know is if oil continues higher (my man ChessNwine has a great technical case here that it will) only the best set ups and best behaving stocks will be kept or considered.

Have a good night.