Thursday, May 26, 2011

The Epic-ness of it All

Now we are talking my kind of weather! It is hot (80 degrees plus) and a bit of a breeze. Nothing finer. Whole weekend is looking the same. Big cookout on Saturday and I am bringing the smoked chicken drumsticks and MOINKS (via the EXCELLENT site, No Excuses BBQ). After today, a little celebration is in order.

Friday night is on, and Gawains has the lead off spot for his birthday present! get your requests in.

If you want the low down on the HBO series "Game of Thrones" or just want to be a cool reader, stop on over to my man David Batista's post this night to stand and be counted:
Stop in!

The Epic-ness of it All
Since I started trading in late January there have been more wins than losses, but more of myself getting in my own way at times. After vacation I renewed my effort to get back to basics: using the PPT screens that I favor and working just candlesticks and nothing else.

I loved the FURX find on Sunday night and after Monday's action I felt it was the time to strike while all the factors aligned; excellent PPT hybrid scenario and a volume move that was sure to make some kind of wave. Add in a classic inverted hammer and it was go time.

Here is the rundown:
-Open position in $FURX Tuesday morning at $14.18-Target is $15.35-$15.50 ( 3 days to a week time frame)
-Almost at target by end of day Tuesday (nice!)
-Blows past target price and 50 day moving average on Wednesday, also on major volume
-GYSC reviews absolute high target, sets at $16.90
-Late Thursday it close enough, trade closed at $16.82 for a 18.6% gain! Round it to 19% to make it sound better, lol!

Final chart with annotation; red arrows are entry and exit (click for larger view):


Of course this one could shoot way higher or it could collapse, but the point is the position was targeted, execution was done and then amended, and an exit was followed. All the kinds of rules that I need to follow. Worked out super well on this one.

Not a Good Sign
TraderMark of Fund My Mutual Fund had this post up today:
Market Only Down a Few % from Highs, but Market Sentiment Horrible
With the market indices only down a little bit, trader sentiment is falling fast, almost as if a total rout is going on! From the post:
Usually market sentiment is a great contrary indicator at extremes. For some reason, despite a market that has barely sold off (down less than 3% from the peak) the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment indicator is at lows not seen since August 2010. You know what happened at that point. Not sure why such a negative view - perhaps the news from Europe is weighing more on sentiment than U.S. stock performance.

I commented:
This backs up what I have been saying 100% about FED induced "new normal" markets; if sentiment is this bad down, what, 2-3% from highs, WTF would happen with a 5% move? A 10% move down? Nice little pickle we are now in.

Managing expectations are a major goal of the FED. What is 3% market moves down are enough to cause such sentiment shifts? Keep this one in mind.

Have a good night.


watchtower said...

"After today, a little celebration is in order."

BBQ sounds good, but 19% demands a trip to the Cayman Islands!

getyourselfconnected said...

Wowza watchtower, that was a MAJOR score. I could even play some Beat.....I changed my mind.

Jennifer Hillier said...

80 degree weather? We're at 55 here and it's raining, and will probably rain all weekend. :(

getyourselfconnected said...

Still I wonder, and I wonder, Who'll stop the rain!

Yeah, I did that tune for karoake on vacation, lol.

David Batista said...

I wish I were where you are, Jen. It's 80 degrees here, too, and too sunny!

And, GYSC -- now I want some MOINKS, damn you! Have fun grilling to your heart's content Saturday. Take pics!!!

getyourselfconnected said...


Jake said...

Congrats on the great trade GYSC! Enjoy the long weekend.

scharfy said...

great point on how unreliable and schizophrenic sentiment indicators have become. People rotate from euphoria to utter dispair on a whim..

I think the general zeitgeist is one of despondence and disgust.

Private sector withdraws, Fed prints... EPIC battle. Maybe not as epic as that FURX moonshot, but epic.

patriciahysell said...

This seems like so much work! I guess that's why a lot of our investments are in ETFs and we let someone with the time, energy, and inclination manage this stuff for us. I'm glad you are successful and hope you continue to be so.

zydecopaws said...

Now look what you've done. It looks like I'm going to have to make some MOINK this weekend now.

Not that that is a bad thing... ;)

Oh, and thanks again for the shout-out!

GawainsGhost said...

I'm heading out, flying up to Dallas for a belated birthday party with my good friend Ween. I'll try to check in later this evening on my laptop from the hotel.

Nice job on that trade, GYC. But never forget the old saying. That light you see at the end of the tunnel, it's an oncoming train.

I renew my request for "La Grange" by that Little Ol' Band from Texas. It's funny, but ZZ Top, one of the finest rhythm and blues bands in the country, was founded in Houston. They made a name for themselves playing the triangle--Houston, San Antonio, Dallas--before they broke into the big time. Did you know that all of them are originally from New York?

Yep. Not one of them is a native Texan. But probably more than any other band they put the Texas music scene on the map. I find that oddly humorous.

getyourselfconnected said...

Hey Jake! Good to see you and been reading your latest posts, great stuff.

Patricia, yes dealing with your own trading account is a sort of work, but it can be fun if you like this stuff.

zydecopaws, no problem, I link when appropriate :) Not like some people....

Gawains, didnt they make a movie called the best whorehouse in texas with dolly parton and burt reynolds?? Catch you later, have a great birthday weekend.

getyourselfconnected said...

Scharfy, yeas that data set blows my mind.