Wednesday, October 20, 2010

What I Want to Know

Tonight may be my last post until next Tuesday as I have a bunch of stuff to get ready for the trip on Friday morning. I think this is perfectly timed as the wild market gyrations and the equally wild speculation by writers everywhere is getting a bit on the extreme end of the pool. Maybe we should all take a few days off?

What I Want to Know
Over the next few days I will be taking time to put my mind "offline" and funny enough this is usually when I figure things out! Sometimes a step back is all you need. As a scientist I often find things economic annoying and frustrating because of two main sticking points which will forever keep economics from being a real science:
-Incomplete Information

The psychology part I am sure you all understand, but the incomplete information part may not be what you think I mean.

Take guidance and analysts estimates for example. There is no reason for either, not really. Are you going to argue that Apple Inc (AAPL) the monster tech firm that makes I-stuff cannot post sales and shipping records every single day from their corporate IPad? Of course they could. All you would need to do is have a running spreadsheet to track it and there is your revenue "estimate". This is not what happens and throw in a bunch of crazy accounting tricks and you never know what a company may post for earnings. This is incomplete information. I will not even get into the banks and their games.

When I return I would like to do more trading type things, not daily stuff, but work on positions I can run with for a couple of weeks that look attractive. On the other hand I do want to write more about macro issues and larger picture thinking as well. Should be interesting.

Anyways, here are some things I would like to know so if you know go ahead and leave it in the comments if not I will cogitate on it on New Providence Island:

-I think Karl Denninger should take this weekend off, but as he is on the job how come it is not knowable right now (like this very second!) whether mortgage securities were sold multiple times? I think this is impossible but again, why am I even wondering?

-When and how did the stock market become a proxy for the Forex market? I can tell you with 100% confidence that no small timer or 401k contributor at and around my level even knows that the dollar fluctuates in value so they are damn sure not trading the buck up and down via stocks.

-This post at The Housing Time Bomb kind of scared me a little. Why did it make me so uncomfortable?

-Why does momentum trading piss me off so much?

-If we all agree (we do not!) that any nation that has it's own currency needs not collect taxes to spend and can never go broke, how come $100,000 has not been deposited in every single Americans bank account to end this recession? Why not tonight at midnight? If the above line of thinking is true there is no excuse for not taking this action. Money where your mind (and mouth) is time boys.

-When the automobile caused a serious "output gap" in the horse cart manufacturing industry how come they did not target that gap with cheaper money? Think of all the oil we could have avoided using all this time!

-Related: What if the consumption and output level of right now is actually steady state equilibrium? Makes all being done look pretty stupid, yes?

-Related 2: When you get in your car do you immediately gun it to 100 mph to re-capture your highest speed ever output? Why not?

-I have been disappointed with the FED (you think?) but I cannot help but wonder if behind close doors the members are not screaming about a US CONgress that will not do anything on their own but rely 100% on the FED for action? (Note: I don't favor the Congress getting to crazy either)

-That said, should some kind of ban on massive spending bills be enacted before the week prior to Christmas? I think there could be some serious gifts on the way by an outgoing CONgress.

-So the Republicans will win in November and all this will change right? Hee hee.

-If Barney Frank loses his seat here in Massachusetts will I be arrested for playing this tune too loud?

Have a good night.


Dave in Denver said...

Hey gyc. It is possible to know that mortgages were sold multiple times. This whole thing started orginally with a lawsuit in Ohio a couple years ago with 14 plaintiffs v. Deuthsche Bank. DB was foreclosing and the plaintiffs were awarded a halting of the foreclosure because DB could not produce the title work. Although this case was swept under the rug, it was because DB had sold the mortgages into several REMICs.

I'm sure this was the case that got this whole thing going - it just took time...

Dave in Denver said...

THis is a phenomenal story from Midas tonight:

Silver Bill, Chris
I am in the final stages of getting delivery of some rather spread about metals holdings. UBS have been giving me consistent delays and aggravation eg "no problem - takes about ten days" followed by in two weeks time after I chase them "we have to have a wet signature, to replace your fax - just our system" - and then still later "your gold coins will take considerably longer, as there are a lot" - it is actually 250 we are talking about which I should not have thought was that many at all.....

Worse, right on the day arranged for delivery, they are claiming they have only just received the instruction and there will be further delays.

Worse yet, they are now saying that my Silver is held in a metal account, despite my paying for bars, and that if I want bars they will have to be made!!! at a cost of approximately 10%!!! This despite their continuing clear advertisement of Kg Silver bars on their website.

They ask then whether I would like to close my position instead in view of the cost. None of this was of course discussed or in play when I bought and I have asked them to retrieve the recordings of the order conversation. I have of course declined to "Close my position" because this means selling at their miserable freakin' bid, and letting them off their silver obligations scot free. I ordered Kilo bars, which I paid for in advance including TVA a few years ago and however this turns out it shows just another twist in the lying stinking conspiracy that is now pervasive. What I shall probably do is to leg in on ZKB, and close the account whilst demanding the bars. If I have to, ultimately I shall pay and then seek redress through the banking ombudsman in the in the UK which is of course the jusrisdiction in which I lived when I made the purchase. Since they too operate in London, they may find this an embarrassing conversation, or then again they may get off scot free.

Just thought you might care to warn prospective delivery takers of the sort of wiles that are now being used to escape metal delivery obligations. My own feeling is that I am not big enoughtfor them to care too much about, but what it does drive out it seems to me is that they are operating to instructions to try to make it as difficult as possible to take delivery, and to make sure there is the disincentive of a haircut into the bargain. The basis of trust has been completely discarded.

Dave in Denver said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
watchtower said...

"On the other hand I do want to write more about macro issues and larger picture thinking as well."


Off topic a little unless it could be put in the macro slot.

If you don't have time to answer this today maybe you could give your opinion after you get back from vacation.

Have you ever read anything on Strauss & Howe?

If so, do you think 'Strauss & Howe' might be on to something with their 'Forth Turning' ideas or would you put them in the nutjob bin?

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