Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Differences Make the World Go Round

It has been rain up here for 4 days straight with one more to go. That Bahamas trip is looking better and better for the 22nd-25th this month.

New England Patriots Make a Move
Today when I woke up I saw a small print scroll on the bottom news ticker that said "Patriots in talks with Vikings on Moss trade". I was shocked and then I could not think of one thing the Viking had to offer us so I thought it was a joke. The radio guys were saying it was a done deal on the ride into work, and still I was thinking it was a trick. It was not.

The New England Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings for a 2011 3rd round draft pick. You read that right.

I do not want to get all worked up, but I really love Randy Moss. Can he be a big mouth? You. Does he take plays off? Sure. Is he the single most dangerous down field receiver in the NFL? Yes. In NFL history? I think so.

I am done thinking about how the Patriots do things, they think they are right and for years they have been wrong. I have read over 8 articles saying how the Pats will be better off without Moss. I say wait until about the second quarter in the next game vs Baltimore when Welker is getting destroyed by a double coverage slam job and get back to me. I am disappointed.

Oh yeah, the Pats play the Vikings in a few weeks and I am sure Darius Butler can cover Randy Moss. (EXTREME SNARK enabled)

More of the Same
Just in case you were inundated with the whole fraudulent mortgage news, even though I said this will go away by legislation, then here is an oldy but goody back again:
No-interest loans offered to jobless homeowners
Unemployed homeowners in Massachusetts will be able to take out interest-free loans of up to $50,000 to help them make mortgage payments, under a $1 billion federal program unveiled today in Roxbury by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The program will provide about $61 million to struggling property owners in the state, according to HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan.

"Countless people who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own temporarily lack the steady income they need to pay their mortgage,'' Donovan said in prepared remarks. "That's why the Emergency Homeowner Loan Program will provide limited and targeted assistance to working families."

The effort, called the Emergency Homeowner Loan Program, is meant to supplement a $7.6 billion program launched by the US Treasury Department earlier this year to help jobless homeowners in 18 states and the District of Columbia, which were hardest hit by the recession. The Treasury program also targets homeowners who are "underwater," meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.
Just keep adding to the personal debt pile. Unreal. Oh yeah, the banks get paid with this money first! Too funny.

Differences Make the World Go Round
I had thought about this post most of the day and I was just going to leave things alone. I changed my mind and will go on with this post.

Today over at The Big Picture Barry Ritholtz had a item up called:
Do You Wanns be Right, or Do You Wanna Make Money?
It seems TBP get hit with all kinds of emails or comments that savage him for being bullish (at times, Barry is no blind permabull) and for not "telling it like it is" which must mean "saying all is fake and fixed and all a dream". From TBP:
My inbox is deluged with rants and demands from people who are insisting that This. Rally. Must. End. NOW!
A composite of their emails would read something like this: “How can you sit there so blithely while the Fed debases the world’s reserve currency? Why haven’t you commented on POMO?!? The entire game is rigged, and your just another @%$# salesman for Wall Street!”
This brought back a post from while back where I did indeed leave such a comment.

In the post Dow Zero Insurgency Peak? TBP asked whether with all the stunning headlines that come out from Zero Hedge can a blog get too over the top and move to sensationalism. The question was phrased as "jumping the shark". I offered in the comments:
This thing may get ugly but I did want to add my 2 cents.
TBP had a post a while back about “Buying What You Hate” and while it proved profitable, jumping the shark can be writing a book about bailouts and corruption then playing on that very dynamic for profit. Took a huge step down in my eyes on that one.
I stand by that comment as it really bugged me very much. Barry responded:
BR: We manage assets for people who want returns, not my lectures. That is the asset management business for you.
I draw the line between owning stocks you do not like, and being a lying cheating thieving scumbag. Its a pretty bright line, so long as you don’t squint . . .


I gave this plenty of thought all day and so I just want to go over a few points.

Whether it is FED intervention, Treasury bailouts, CONgress passed handouts, or some other thing over the last two years, it has worked very well in getting the stock market up. A lot. This was an opportunity if you wanted to get on board and ride a liquidity wave higher. This is not a pipe dream, crazy talk, or a misunderstanding of the way "markets work".

There is no real way to put this easy, so I will just let it ride;
The very same levers that were pulled to cause the Tech boom and the Credit mania are the same levers being pulled to get money flowing back into stocks. It is an opportunity for gains, but at the cost of contributing to a failed policy.

That's it and that's all. As long as the behavior of those looking for short term gain can be counted on 100% nothing will ever change. It probably was never going to anyway.

Now I do agree with Barry that nothing is more annoying than listening to some guy say the same sort of crap I do (I am an amateur economic wonk after all) then whining that his bond short is getting dusted due to this stuff or that his AAPL short is killing him because the market is "wrong". If you are "fighting the tape" you are pretty dumb and have been a solid loser for some time.

Not everyone is complaining about losing money or not gaining on the move up in equities. I have not lost as all and made more than my yearly goal. I am going to complain about the massive support thrown under this market because it will not end well. I also will not allocate my funds towards being a part of it.

Now you may argue my metal positions are "taking advantage" of something and they are. Crazy spending and fiat games being played the world over.

All this said, I have nothing but respect for people that put money to work day in, and day out using their skills and doing well. It is a philosophical difference as to what some will be a part of and what they will not. The world takes all kinds and there is nothing "wrong" with that. Philosophy is the talk on a cereal box or a smile on a dog and all that.

Have a good night.

4 comments:

GawainsGhost said...

If I were you, GYC, I wouldn't concern myself over the Moss trade. New England didn't get fleeced like Dallas did on the Williams trade.

The Partriots now have 2 first round picks, 2 second round picks, and 2 third round picks in the next draft. Those can be used to bring in new talent or traded for veteran free agents. It's a plan to build for the future.

More to the point, did Moss make the Patriots better? Brady went undefeated in the playoffs and won three Super Bowls without him. Once Moss arrived on the scene, they had one stellar year together, set records, and lost the Super Bowl. Then failed to make the playoffs and lost twice. I fail to see the improvement.

It's never about skill players. It's always about team. Moss was causing disruptions and arguing with coaches, like he always does everywhere he goes. He only plays when he wants to.

Minnesota will regret this trade. Especially after Farve is buried in the dirt, which I expect to happen soon. What will Moss do for the Vikings then? Give them nothing but problems.

scharfy said...

Nice trading by the Pats. Picked him up for a 4th, used him for two years, and got rid of him for a 3rd.

That's a grand slam for depreciating assets like football players.

Good teams like the Pats can do that.

Bad teams (like the Redskins) always are paying up in the free Agent market (and giving up picks) because they can't develop players on their own.

It ruins the franchise over time.

Moss is good, but I'd wager the Pats can find a good 3rd rounder, develop him, build the value, and trade him for a 2nd.

That way they keeo their cupboards stocked.

Bill Walsh of the old 49ers fame always was a master at trading aged stars for future picks.

getyourselfconnected said...

Guys,
I get the mechanics of the Moss deal, and that is a bunch of picks, but I think the difference it will make in how the offense can operate will be huge. I hope I am wrong. Just was a bit shocking around these parts.

Dave in Denver said...

No post tonight? (Thurs).

My take is that Moss had become a cancer in the locker room. He's old anyway.