Today is Veterans Day and I would ask all the readers to take a minute and think about all the men and women that have served in our armed forces over the years and presently. They do not make policy, they carry it out and that is above any partisanship. This site used to have a regular commenter named AnonG who frequented the site. A while back AnonG announced his joining the military. I wish him well and if you are still out there checking in G, I am thinking of you!
A bit short on time but I had a post in mind, so away we go.
Before The Regularly Scheduled Programming
Before tonight's missive I wanted to offer my own 2 cents about the markets in general and specifically ideas about "perma bulls" or "perma bears".
What I would like to say is that I am bearish on many things. Of course I can see a government influenced pop as much as the next person, but that does not change my macro fundamental view. It perhaps changes the timing, but not the end result.
My own words for the "perma bull" types and those that are screaming "look at what the market is telling you bears" or "admit you are just plain out wrong" is the following public service message:
-You need to go over the last year again as I think time and distance had warped your mind. Fundamentals finally trumped collective delusion and things went south in a hurry, and no doubt you were "dollar cost averaging" in the whole way down. No you would have the nerve to try and run a victory lap and taunt those of a different view because of the single greatest financial experiment in the history of the USA? Shame is not an issue for you.
Try and remember something as the S&P 500 rockets higher (as the dollar is dropped in tandem) and know that your only claim to fame is that the government saved you. The FED took your hand when you were lost and crying in the fetal position and the Treasury powdered you backside after your bout with incontinence in the face of the credit crunch. You now rely on their committed support to help you learn to walk again and play the only game you know how to: every asset going up all at once makes investing easy.
Of course if you would like to remove your diapers and make an effort to stand on your own "the fundamentals are improving" two feet I would welcome you in joining me is a call for the immediate end to any and all government support/easy money practices and then we can see where the chips fall.
Oh, you need to go to the bathroom again? Well by all means go ahead, your coddling parents will be here when you get back.
Back to the regular show.
The Running Man; A Reality Show?
A more light hearted post to get a few laughs and maybe inspire some thinking.
I am sure that most readers are familiar with the Arnold Schwarzenegger film "The Running Man". What you may not know is the film was based on a Stephen King short story of the same name which was an excellent piece of writing. Now you know.
Taking great liberties, and having some fun with the dialogue, I will present the show "The Running Man" with an whole new set of players and circumstances.
Damon Killian: Hello all the folks at home! Tonight we have a special show for you, one you do not want to miss. But first, who loves you and who do you love?!:
Raucous crowd: YOUOOUIO!!!! (roar)
Killian: As you know we have bad debts, they are bad elements, they hurt us all. Now forget how they happened, it does not matter, what matters is we are going to help those bad debts. Indeed, if these sick players can survive our game for the allotted time frame, they will simply be forgiven! Their debt to society paid in full! What a deal!
Here are your guest runners:
-Housing Market Assistance across all fronts (you know the players)
New item today:
FHA moves to boost condo market
I am sure government backing for buying up Miami condos is rooted in sound policy making.
-Commercial Real Estate Support
New item today:
New Rules and More Lies Hide Cancerous Commercial Real Estate Loans
Extend and Pretend in perhaps it's finest iteration. Unreal.
Back to our host:
Killian: Now these bad debts can either be lost over time to a recovering market, or inflated away by the central bank. But first they will have to survive their time in the game zone, and you know who is hunting them, right?
Raucous crowd: YEESSSSESS! (roar)
Raucous Crowd: The Stalkers!!
Killian: Tell em about our stalkers!
Announcer: Leading the league in kills last year is Fireball whose main weapon is his "mark to market" flamethrower which torches accounting tricks, wait, I have just been informed that Fireball's flamethrower has been rendered inactive and thus he cannot participate in the hunt. Never fear, we have a deep stable of stalkers!
Announcer: Next up is "Buzzsaw" whose currency devaluation chainsaw tears away at the dollars value across the world:
Announcer: And finally, we have Professor "Sub Zero" who can chill any countries plans for unlimited funding by freezing a bond sale:
Killian: The rules are simple, all the runners have to do is run out the clock on the stalkers and all will be well. So are you ready? Are you ready?!
Raucous Crowd: YESSSS!!!
Killian: To Extend!!:
Guest Runner Bad Debt: Killian, I'll be back!
Killian: Only in a sovereign default punk! GO!!!!!!!
The entire plan has always been to buy time so that someday, someway these debt will be at par either through some miracle of a real estate mania rebound, or devaluation of the currency in a controlled manner. If you are of the mind that this kind of gamesmanship is both good and needed then you sit across the divide from me.
Have a good night.