Monday, November 16, 2009

The FED Speaks and Gold and Silver Listen

It is always harder to go to work after a big loss for one of your favorite teams!

Colts 35, Patriots 34
The Patriots blew away the Colts last night for 48 minutes. The game was not even close as the Pats finally hit a groove on offense, for 48 minutes. After 48 minutes it was clear just who held the cards in the AFC.

Of course there were 12 minutes unaccounted for!

In a move as puzzling as the same move made in the 2006 AFC title game, the Patriots got off the accelerator on offense in the 4th quarter and switched from a physical press defense to a back off zone coverage. Both had disastrous results as the Colts rallied for two scores before "The Call"

Faced with 4th and 2 and their own 28 yard line, the Patriots burned a time out and then decided to try and win the game right there. There will be endless debate about this move, and even here in Massachusetts there are many super angry fans right now. Here is my way of thinking:
-The Pats defense was on their heels and Manning was white hot
-2 minutes and a time out might as well be an entire quarter the way the Colts play offense
-2 yards would be fully expected by the offense which finally hit on all cylinders
-Do it!

When Brady came back out the announcers figured he was going to try and draw the Colts offsides. I knew they were going, it made sense to me. Kevin Faulk caught the ball and it was a bit wobbly and thus he was spotted a full yard behind the marker. I cannot recall having ever seen this kind of call made in the NFL, the forward progress rule is a bad one but always given to the offensive players. Until last night. It is what it is and of course the Colts scored shortly after to win the game.

Ok, the Patriots lost. What is with all the moaning? Teddy Bruschi, former Pats linebacker and all but a god here, came out today and penned this article:
Belichick dissed his defense
Bruschi argues that the defense must have felt terrible about this call and it will be hard for them to recover their confidence. With all due respect to Teddy, WERE YOU WATCHING THE SAME GAME I WAS? The Colts would have scored if we punted the ball and somehow it landed at the Colts 1 yard line. I understand "anything can happen" and "give them the long field" but what would have happened was a long scoring drive in about 1:45, which was about as long as the two previous drives took for the Colts. If the defense was so offended, they should have gotten mean and closed the game out on a short field to send their own message. Instead they got dusted for another score. Spare me.

In summary, I think that Bill B wanted to win the game right there and not have to leave it to Manning's arm hopefully misfiring. I think it was an aggressive call, and one I would have made. It did not work. It happens.

On the good side, Brady finally looks very sharp and Randy Moss has awoken. When allowed to play aggressive defense the unit played well, though they ran out of gas late from chasing desperate Colts receivers trying to catch up. After a day to think about it, I have cooled off. The Pats went into the home stadium of the undefeated Colts (who are either #1 or #2 ranked in all team power rankings) and lowered the boom on them for most of the game. It took a frenetic effort and some really amazing catches for the Colts to win this game. Lost in all this was that this contest was wildly exciting!

Kid Dynamite has his take on the game up today as well, if you are so inclined.

The FED Speaks and Gold and Silver Listen
I was laughing over the weekend as I saw several articles imply that Ben Bernanke's speech today may start to flesh out the vaunted "exit strategy" everyone is so sure is on the way. Right before Ben's speech hit the wires the dollar was even in rally mode on this kind of thinking. Why so many want to look dumb is beyond me, but the speech was as easy money friendly as can be.

Accrued Interest has the noon time panic in pictures when Bernanke mentioned the dollar, but is was short lived after reading his words over.

You can see a copy of the prepared remarks here.

Quick and dirty summary is "the FED has saved the world and while some issues remain, growth will resume even though there will be no jobs. Oh yeah, and easy money is here to stay. Bank on it!"

My favorite line:
My own view is that the recent pickup reflects more than purely temporary factors and that continued growth next year is likely.
HA! Look like Bernanke has been reading the blogs!

It seems funny that Bernanke felt it was needed to try and paint the recovery as anything other than government stimulus/bailout artificial pumping. To me this is very revealing and shows just how scared the FED is about confidence right now.

In the Q&A session Bernanke offers up his signal of "all clear" for stock market mania:
In a Q&A session after a speech in New York, Bernanke at first channeled his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, on the subject of bubbles: Bernanke said it was "inherently, extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value or not."

And he added: "It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system."
And subprime is contained as well.

Well there must be a bubble someplace and many think it is in gold. Gold moved up strong today and EconomicDisconnect was very pleased to see silver make a key breakout above $18/ounce. Nice!

Metal minded readers may like to check over a Sunday article at The Golden Truth which discusses foreign country interest in the metal.

That's about it, I have some errands to get done.
Disclosure: If there are any new readers, I am LONG GLD,SLV,PAAS and hold physical gold and silver as well, so I am biased indeed.

Have a good night.


GawainsGhost said...

Well, I wouldn't call it the right call or even a good call, but it was a gutsy call. If it had worked, and it almost did, then it would have been brilliant. But since it didn't and ended up costing New England the game, let's just say it was questionable.

Compare that to Jason Garrett's complete inability to call a running play and as a result being shut out until the final seconds of garbage time.

Belichick made one questionable call. Garrett made one stupid call after another all game long. That's how I look at it.

Incidentally, there's an interesting article on the impending commercial real estate implosion in the latest issue of BusinessWeek. Bad loans, forged or altered documents, rampant fraud, losses in the billions.

Gee, I had a hard time figuring out if they were talking about overbuilt casinos in Las Vegas or Jerryworld in Arlington.

getyourselfconnected said...

I am trying my best to be calm, but really Faulk made the 1st, the ref nearest the ball spotted it at the 30 (first down) and then the line judge came in and spotted it a clear yard short. Fine. Great, whatever.

All this talk about the defense being "dissed" or that they will not perform because they are not trusted is wearing me thin. If they are that big a bunch of babies Bill B will cut the entire roster this offseason and start over. They had their chance before the play, they had their chance after the play. 21 points in the 4th allowed speaks more than the 4th down decision.

Next time we will have to score 45 I guess.

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, there's a heated debate over the call at, and I understand Patriots fans are livid. It's hard to lose to a hated rival like that.

It was a gutsy but questionable call, however you can't blame the refs. Their mistakes, like injuries, are part of the game. You just have to deal with them.

Speaking of which, what about not enforcing the 15-yard penalty on Green Bay for throwing a challenge without any timouts? I doubt it would have changed the outcome, but still rules are rules.

The refs didn't hold Dallas scoreless until the last 38 seconds. The Green Bay defense did. Or maybe it was Garrett.

To me this is maddening. When you can't convert on third downs and haven't scored a point by the fourth quarter, obviously what you're doing is not working. Make an adjustment! For crying out loud.

Oh, well, maybe, hopefully, Danny Snyder will hire Jason Garrett to coach the Redskins next year. Then I'll get to watch them wallow in misery. That would make me happy.

getyourselfconnected said...

We are a sad pair today!

I was really dissapointed with the Dallas effort level. I am just not sure what to make of them now, but maybe it was a one game kind of thing.

The Pats are getting better every week and showed what they can do against the Colts. Hopefully we can beat the Jets this weekend, but all this drama about 1 play I think is going to be a huge distraction. I wish they had punted and the Colts scored anyway and then maybe we could all just move on.

JasonK said...

Both had disastrous results as the Colts rallied for two scores before "The Call"

HA! I love it! Will this enter the football lexicon vis a vis "the catch" (Dwight clark in the back of the endzone)?

For me personally, the only insanity of it was the position go for it on the 28 YARD LINE???

Its a matter of degree - if they went for it on their own 5 yard line, even you would agree thats nuts. For me, the 28 is also in the "nuts" category - just too damn close.

And even if the defense wasnt able to stop em, punt it and make the colts make more plays, increase the chances of a pick or a fumble.

Hell of a game though...

getyourselfconnected said...

Agree, great game, plenty of drama!

Because it was a regukar season game and not a playoff game, I think "The Call" may not stick but you never know.