The Big Dogs Unload the Big Guns
The writers in the blogroll at the left represent, in my opinion, the best thinking and writing on things finance available. Sometimes the big dogs have a huge game, and today featured some really impressive pieces.
Mish Shedlock rolled with Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim. The article is very lengthy but well worth the read.
In summation, after some modelling, Mish thinks UE could stay at or above 8% until 2020! Now that summary may seem totally laughable, it did to me, if you really look at the work Mish goes over this scenario is very likely. Of course most will say "there will be some unknown massive driver of jobs" and that very may well happen. In fact, I think it will have to happen for this projection not to hold. Ugly, but great for low inflation!
The second big gun was a thoughtful piece over at Jesse's Cafe. The title is Money Supply and Demand, and the Monetization of Debt which is required reading if you want to understand some of the action behind the scene. If you don't care because GOOG is up, then please skip this one.
If At First You Don't Succeed
To set this section up, allow me to review my macro ideas on things economic:
-Unemployment is very bad, and much worse than the headline number would indicate
-There is no recovery in housing, only the US government buying all the mortgages and giving bribes to people to buy
-The Banks are still in worlds of trouble, but have been provided with so many helping hands that they are marching on
-The dollar is in trouble and not in technical sense, but in a real lack of faith kind of way
-The economy is still terrible and absent government stimulus spending things would be much worse number wise
That is just a few. Now if I am wrong, then the headlines and stories would run counter to what I have written.
So if it is "Mission Accomplished" by the FED, how come an exit strategy is on hold probably until 2011? Across the Curve featured a submission by Steven K. Beckner, a noted FED watcher, and the whole thing screams "No Exit Coming". Of course the tone is all soft and easy on the FED, but it does contain this snippet:
The problem, of course, is that eventually the Fed has to start toI just about burst out in laughter on that line.
back up this kind of talk with action or risk losing credibility. At
some point the Fed will start to sound foolish and unbelievable if it
keeps talking about all the tools it has but keeps them locked away.
What about a measly rate hike? No way says David Rosenberg until 2011, which has been my earliest target for a rate hike. FED futures now bear out what I have been saying forever.
So forget FED policy for a moment, if I am wrong then the extra help from Uncle Sam should not be needed. After all the housing programs, TARP, and a $787 recovery spending bill for all those "shovel ready" job projects things should be getting better, yes?
Senator Reid tees up 2010 jobs bill
No word on if these jobs will be "shovel ready" or just making shovels as yet.
Obama to focus on job creation
The next line should read "Just in time for election 2010".
Ok, I agree this could just be political posturing. What I do take seriously is the idea that more stimulus spending is on the way by someone that really has inside information. Please consider:
Goldman On Why A Second Stimulus Is Merely Months Away
Now that is INSIDE information if there is such a thing!
I could go over the disaster that is the coming FHA bailout (it's policy to make bad loans, its the American Dream!!) but I want to keep a good vibe for the fun stuff.
If at first you don't succeed, try try again! I think they all will be trying for some time to come. Of course being a perma bear will bias my view, so be warned.
Friday Night Entertainment
A mix of things to get you ready for the weekend.
In my never ending quest to generate more web traffic for my humble site, here is an LOL CAT, FUNNY CAT PICTURE, FUNNY-PICTURE, LOL CHEESEBURGER submission which generates tons of hits for some reason.
Moms can be protective of their children:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
I am hoping this is some kind of quark due to language, if not no wonder retail sales have been weak:
see more Epic Fails
Wikipedia is a Worthwhile Resource
By now you all know I am a serious Wikipedia addict. What you may not know is that Wiki is running a donation drive to raise funds. Now I cannot vouch for how that money is spent and all that so do not email me telling how they use the money to gun SPY mini futures to kill your shorts on a perfect fibonacci sell point. I have donated today, and I am merely asking that you consider it.
For an example of how great the site is (or how sick I am, you decide) while i was checking out some information on Civil War submarines (don't ask) I became engrossed by all the submarine links and eventually ran into Project Jennifer.
"Jennifer" was the code name for the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) project to recover the sunken Soviet submarine K-129, one of the Soviet Union's GOLF II Class strategic ballistic missile submarines, from the Pacific Ocean floor in the summer of 1974, using the purpose-built ship Hughes Glomar Explorer. The 1968 sinking of the K-129 occurred approximately 1700 miles north and west of Hawaii, at a location still (as of 2009) held highly classified by U.S. intelligence agencies. Project Jennifer was one of the most complex, expensive and secretive intelligence operations of the Cold War at a cost about $800 million. The salvage operation has been compared to Apollo space program in terms of its complexity and scope: in addition to designing the high tech recovery ship and its unique lifting cradle, the U.S. had to also develop precision stability equipment to keep the ship nearly stationary above the target while lowering nearly two miles of "drilling" pipe, and scientists also developed methods for preserving paper that had been underwater for years in hopes of being able to recover and read the submarine's codebooks.Amazing! If this interests you I can recommend a couple of books I have already read about this topic. And yes, I know I have some serious issues.
Tonight's cinema comes from loyal reader Watchtower who suggested the car chase scene form the classic film Bullitt. This is a thrilling throw back to real stunts and real engines that growled and roared. Nothing like it:
Ending the evening with some songs to get you positioned to enjoy the weekend.
I was thinking of reader Kevin (Kev, where you at?) when this song came on the radio Today on the ride home. One time Kevin requested an Ace of Base song and I remember how that struck me as out there (I do like Ace of Base). Today I heard Roxette and "She's Got the Look" and I thought Kevin may like this one as well:
This song has always hit me pretty hard and is a longtime favorite. Take a listen to Crowded House and "Don't Dream It's Over":
When Van Halen broke up I was crestfallen. I thought David Lee Roth would suck as a solo, and only the song Yankee Rose is a stand out. this tune does indeed rock:
Great into segment! And yes that is Steve Vai on guitar.
Last call! Grab a drink and enjoy the close!
A band I liked when they broke out was System of a Down. I had lost track of them, but after checking Wiki, I know they are on hiatus. Their breakout song was called Chop Suey and I really love this song for the tempo changes and vocals:
Have a good night.