Friday, November 13, 2009

If At First You Don't Succeed

I will be taking the advice of the Anon poster from the "Running Man" post and get on with my stalled empty life instead of waiting for the end of the world that I am sure is coming. To that end, I have premium tickets for tomorrow night's Star Wars extravaganza, Star Wars in Concert!!!!! I will be staying the night in Boston to celebrate and allow myself to feel joy instead of gloom and doom. Thanks Anon!

The Big Dogs Unload the Big Guns
The writers in the blogroll at the left represent, in my opinion, the best thinking and writing on things finance available. Sometimes the big dogs have a huge game, and today featured some really impressive pieces.

Mish Shedlock rolled with Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim. The article is very lengthy but well worth the read.

In summation, after some modelling, Mish thinks UE could stay at or above 8% until 2020! Now that summary may seem totally laughable, it did to me, if you really look at the work Mish goes over this scenario is very likely. Of course most will say "there will be some unknown massive driver of jobs" and that very may well happen. In fact, I think it will have to happen for this projection not to hold. Ugly, but great for low inflation!

The second big gun was a thoughtful piece over at Jesse's Cafe. The title is Money Supply and Demand, and the Monetization of Debt which is required reading if you want to understand some of the action behind the scene. If you don't care because GOOG is up, then please skip this one.

If At First You Don't Succeed
To set this section up, allow me to review my macro ideas on things economic:
-Unemployment is very bad, and much worse than the headline number would indicate
-There is no recovery in housing, only the US government buying all the mortgages and giving bribes to people to buy
-The Banks are still in worlds of trouble, but have been provided with so many helping hands that they are marching on
-The dollar is in trouble and not in technical sense, but in a real lack of faith kind of way
-The economy is still terrible and absent government stimulus spending things would be much worse number wise

That is just a few. Now if I am wrong, then the headlines and stories would run counter to what I have written.

So if it is "Mission Accomplished" by the FED, how come an exit strategy is on hold probably until 2011? Across the Curve featured a submission by Steven K. Beckner, a noted FED watcher, and the whole thing screams "No Exit Coming". Of course the tone is all soft and easy on the FED, but it does contain this snippet:
The problem, of course, is that eventually the Fed has to start to
back up this kind of talk with action or risk losing credibility. At
some point the Fed will start to sound foolish and unbelievable if it
keeps talking about all the tools it has but keeps them locked away.
I just about burst out in laughter on that line.

What about a measly rate hike? No way says David Rosenberg until 2011, which has been my earliest target for a rate hike. FED futures now bear out what I have been saying forever.

So forget FED policy for a moment, if I am wrong then the extra help from Uncle Sam should not be needed. After all the housing programs, TARP, and a $787 recovery spending bill for all those "shovel ready" job projects things should be getting better, yes?

Well then:
Senator Reid tees up 2010 jobs bill
No word on if these jobs will be "shovel ready" or just making shovels as yet.

Obama to focus on job creation
The next line should read "Just in time for election 2010".

Ok, I agree this could just be political posturing. What I do take seriously is the idea that more stimulus spending is on the way by someone that really has inside information. Please consider:
Goldman On Why A Second Stimulus Is Merely Months Away
Now that is INSIDE information if there is such a thing!

I could go over the disaster that is the coming FHA bailout (it's policy to make bad loans, its the American Dream!!) but I want to keep a good vibe for the fun stuff.

If at first you don't succeed, try try again! I think they all will be trying for some time to come. Of course being a perma bear will bias my view, so be warned.

Friday Night Entertainment
A mix of things to get you ready for the weekend.

Funny Pictures
In my never ending quest to generate more web traffic for my humble site, here is an LOL CAT, FUNNY CAT PICTURE, FUNNY-PICTURE, LOL CHEESEBURGER submission which generates tons of hits for some reason.
Moms can be protective of their children:
funny pictures of cats with captions
see more Lolcats and funny pictures

I am hoping this is some kind of quark due to language, if not no wonder retail sales have been weak:
epic fail pictures
see more Epic Fails

Wikipedia is a Worthwhile Resource
By now you all know I am a serious Wikipedia addict. What you may not know is that Wiki is running a donation drive to raise funds. Now I cannot vouch for how that money is spent and all that so do not email me telling how they use the money to gun SPY mini futures to kill your shorts on a perfect fibonacci sell point. I have donated today, and I am merely asking that you consider it.

For an example of how great the site is (or how sick I am, you decide) while i was checking out some information on Civil War submarines (don't ask) I became engrossed by all the submarine links and eventually ran into Project Jennifer.

from Wiki:
"Jennifer" was the code name for the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) project to recover the sunken Soviet submarine K-129, one of the Soviet Union's GOLF II Class strategic ballistic missile submarines, from the Pacific Ocean floor in the summer of 1974, using the purpose-built ship Hughes Glomar Explorer.[1] The 1968 sinking of the K-129 occurred approximately 1700 miles north and west of Hawaii,[2] at a location still (as of 2009) held highly classified by U.S. intelligence agencies. Project Jennifer was one of the most complex, expensive and secretive intelligence operations of the Cold War at a cost about $800 million. The salvage operation has been compared to Apollo space program in terms of its complexity and scope: in addition to designing the high tech recovery ship and its unique lifting cradle, the U.S. had to also develop precision stability equipment to keep the ship nearly stationary above the target while lowering nearly two miles of "drilling" pipe, and scientists also developed methods for preserving paper that had been underwater for years in hopes of being able to recover and read the submarine's codebooks.
Amazing! If this interests you I can recommend a couple of books I have already read about this topic. And yes, I know I have some serious issues.

Film Clip
Tonight's cinema comes from loyal reader Watchtower who suggested the car chase scene form the classic film Bullitt. This is a thrilling throw back to real stunts and real engines that growled and roared. Nothing like it:
Super Sweet!

Rock Blogging
Ending the evening with some songs to get you positioned to enjoy the weekend.

I was thinking of reader Kevin (Kev, where you at?) when this song came on the radio Today on the ride home. One time Kevin requested an Ace of Base song and I remember how that struck me as out there (I do like Ace of Base). Today I heard Roxette and "She's Got the Look" and I thought Kevin may like this one as well:


This song has always hit me pretty hard and is a longtime favorite. Take a listen to Crowded House and "Don't Dream It's Over":


When Van Halen broke up I was crestfallen. I thought David Lee Roth would suck as a solo, and only the song Yankee Rose is a stand out. this tune does indeed rock:

Great into segment! And yes that is Steve Vai on guitar.

Last call! Grab a drink and enjoy the close!

A band I liked when they broke out was System of a Down. I had lost track of them, but after checking Wiki, I know they are on hiatus. Their breakout song was called Chop Suey and I really love this song for the tempo changes and vocals:


Have a good night.

8 comments:

watchtower said...

Hey if Peter Egan sold his 01 Boxster S to buy his Bullitt then it can't be all that bad even if it did come up a little short against the Infiniti SUV : )

Turd Baby?!?!? LMAO over that one.

That Crowded House song always reminds of the scene in that TV miniseries of Stephen King's 'The Stand' (which by the way is an excellent book IMO).
Molly Ringwald and some guy were sitting by a record player listening to that song if I remember correctly.

getyourselfconnected said...

Watchtower,
The Bullitt is pure nasty and I remain a bit jealous.
TURD Baby, I almost got a cramp laughing at that one too.
You are correct on the music pick, and yes, "The Stand" should be required reading IMO.
Glad to see you.

Rob Dawg said...

First time I listened to Williams was at Tanglewood in the late 70s. Since then my season tickets at the Hollwood Bowl have given me my fill. Well that and rush tixs at the BSO in my ignomious college days.

CT-Hilltopper said...

I used to love "Don't Dream, It's Over" by Crowded House. I would listen to it over and over. Now it's on your Friday Night Favorites. imagine That. LOL

Actually, all the songs tonight are good. I barely remembered the Roxette one until I played it, but then I remembered it.

Oh, I have a new financial link for you to check out. I've been reading this guy for a couple of months now, and he's pretty good.

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/

Especially have a look at this article:

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/11/fun-with-fibonacci-time-intervals.html

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

"Obama to focus on job creation"

He focuses much like the General Manager of the division of the company I once worked at. Everything is a top priority. On my last day (I quit), we debated the points in my resignation letter. He said, and I quote, "Of course employees are our #1 priority, it's just that other things are more important right now."

My response was dead silence and a baffled stare. I continued it until he conceded my point. It worked, lol.

Is Obama still focused on smart grid technology too? I'm not saying it is a bad idea but there are unintended consequences. There are 47,000 meter reader jobs in this country and most would become obsolete. Further, ever try taxing automated meter readers? Ever see automated meter readers shopping at this country's many malls? Ever try convincing automated meter readers to speculate in the stock or housing markets? ;)

getyourselfconnected said...

All,
Thanks for all the comments! I just returned from the night in Boston for the Star Wars in Concert show and it was amazing. A bit tired and tons to do today, so I will check in later.

Mike said...

I just came across a very interesting article on the dollar and gold as a result of the Federal Reserve's continued attempts to debase our currency and continue to try to fix a debt problem by creating more debt: Gold Price Headed to $2,300 on Hyperinflation Risk?

here’s an excerpt: “The gold price, and the price of other hard assets, is rising as more investors across the globe ask themselves how these deficits and debts will be resolved. Furthermore, new congressional initiative aimed at politicizing the Fed would give the Secretary of the Treasury a veto over Section 13(3) governing emergency action by the Federal Reserve – and effectively taking away the independence of the central bank. Setting aside discussion of the power that the Federal Reserve currently has, if politics enters the arena of monetary policy, then the U.S. dollar’s fate is sealed. Political leaders who reflexively seek political refuge in populist pork-barrel and loose fiscal policies during difficult economic times may soon have the same power – and ballot-box pressure – over monetary policy.”

Anonymous said...

I really like when people are expressing their opinion and thought. So I like the way you are writing