It is going to rain here all day tomorrow so I am sure that will be plenty of fun. Tonight I am going o cover just a couple of small items and then crank up the fun-o-meter because I am wiped out and need a lift. With this Sunday's huge games in the NFL I will do a football preview post tomorrow.
I was Completely Wrong
In the last post I applied my amazing predictive powers to the release of today's NFP data. My exact words were:
Of course after today's numbers the template will have to be changed somewhat, and so the new release tomorrow will read (my prediction):
"Jobs losses of [225,000] surpassed Wall Street estimates for a job loss total of [250,000] adding further evidence that job market pressure is easing after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression."
You read it here first!
So what happened? I was wrong on both the size of the job losses (-263K!) and the news coverage.
Well, at least I took a shot. My crystal ball works better on any day that is not the first day of the month, and this I forgot. Sorry!
Still, it was amazing to see the media coverage unable to spin this expectations miss in any positive way. I expect much more from our financial press.
While Good for Inflation Expectations, Unemployment Tends to Dampen Spending
I loved this Zero Hedge headline about a David Rosenberg piece:
Rosenberg: "Welcome To The Latest New Paradigm - Jobless Prosperity"
That line is dripping with such heavy sarcasm I find myself getting misty eyed with appreciation.
Back to being serious. The job loss situation is applauded by many economists (at least they have a job) as being very friendly to inflation. No wage increase, no inflation and all that with a bag of chips. This of course allows interest rates to stay at the 0% which allows the US economy to run at all. While this looks great on a dry erase board, it sucks for the millions of people that would really like to have a job. Forget a good one, just a job.
Barry Ritholtz had an excellent chart up (I saw this a few places as well) that shows what may be coming down the line (click for larger view):
The last two recessions, 1990 and 2001, were followed by terrible job growth. I think you, the reader, can see that it will be years until we just get back all the jobs lost during this debacle. Of course people with no job and no money should not stop S&P 1400 in any way. This is the "New Economy" where jobs are optional.
Friday Foray into Fun
I am so ready for this weekend. The wife and I will be visiting a cat breeder to check out a possible addition to the family. I love cats and think I am ready for another one. Somebody has to teach our pug dog some manners!
Queen Elizabeth I twins?:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
A little cinema to perhaps point you towards a rental or whatever it is people do these days (on demand, Netflix, etc).
Back when Eddie Murphy was funny and Nick Nolte was not drunk, they teamed up for the classic film "48 Hours". This fight scene between the two is an excellent example of a boxer vs a brawler. Of course, you have to try and avoid a brawler if he is twice your size! (warning, harsh language!):
In what may be the most moving segment from maybe the best film ever made, enjoy the telephone scene from "It's a Wonderful Life":
Gets me every time.
You know, a long time ago I stole music night from The Big Picture blog (he featured Jazz) and lately music night has become a staple across the blogosphere. I think this is great, music can really help your mood and outlook. With that in mind, let's try and get in weekend mode.
In honor of the coming show, Star Wars in Concert, enjoy the music (try to focus on the steadily higher and higher tones as the battle goes on, then clarinet for Vader's death) from the end of "Return of the Jedi":
This one fits under the "over a year" rule! Take a listen to Cheap Trick and their power ballad "The Flame":
The song that is most "embed disabled" has to be Europe's classic "The Final Countdown". I found a copy I am able to place here, no guarantees it stays for long:
Yes, it has been overplayed. Yes, everyone tries to work it into their wedding, anniversary, funeral or whatever. Even after all that, Garth Brooks' ballad "The Dance" may be one of the best country songs of all time:
Last Call, Have Alcohol?
Ok, I have been a little on the easy side this evening. Maybe I am mellowing in my advanced age. But if David Letterman can still chase ladies and have success (got to be kidding!!), surely I can find a rock out tune!
Closing the show with a classic (I am getting old!) metal song. Enjoy the thunder of "Ride the Lightning" by Metallica:
Have a good night.