Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Missed the Boat

I am feeling better but it's hard to tell while on antihistamines all day and night if it's the real deal. Will lighten up tomorrow and see. Still tired, but at least I can see and I am not sneezing all the time. Take what you can get.

Missed the Boat
I found the perfect clip to sum up my sentiments on the start of 2012. Pay attention to the poor kid at the front of the Banana Boat here, as he falls off then waves sadly back to the departed boat:


I was set to go for 2012 and had some good ideas to use. From the Freestockcharts scans using the iBC PPT Monday 1-2-12 (Most posted in the 12631 trading room):
Of course the entry price for most of those (especially TPC) was long gone when the market gapped up on Tuesday the 3rd.

In my year end "thoughtful" posts I put out a major rule I wanted to stick to and that was not to chase stocks when they are gapping up and when the overall market is running on the overbought cycle. This one change would have saved me quite a few losers last year and made a real performance difference.

And in the first few days of 2012, looks like near term that's a stupid rule.

It's always hard to square a more short term trading strategy with a longer term mentality. I struggle with it all the time. One of the number one reasons I opened up a trading account was to shorten time frames and capture fast evolving moves. It's the old man in me that gets in the way sometimes.

I think markets are overextended here and sentiment is running almost at an apex of ebullience (Now that's a word! Nerdy gangsta). But the market has been tricky and has thrown in enough small drops and sideways movement to lull the VIXX to sleep and keep overbought signals from going red. Short squeezes are the rage and after this run short interest is going to be about absent I would think.

My plan is to get stopped out (around -3.5%, still a bit off) in my TZA position or close it by Friday should no meaningful correction happen. I want to feel better as this sinus thing is killing my energy level. I will do a complete homework night on Sunday and come into next week fresh and ready to use market conditions as they present themselves. This may mean grabbing on tight to the leaving boat, or watching it move on but it's going to be by my choice and the rules that I am comfortable with.

Have a good night.


Jennifer Hillier said...

"An apex of ebullience"!

Damned if that ain't hardcore. :)

EconomicDisconnect said...

It's an insta-classic!

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Every investor has missed the boat at one time or another.