Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Explosive Ingredients

Amazingly it was 50 degrees here today and very sunny. It was almost like a spring day. Went for a walk and that was great in January.

Apple Blowout Earnings
Apple (AAPL) once again blew out the house on earnings. The numbers continue to be staggering, and growing. Even the most aggressive estimates I had seen were way off. 13 Billion in net income for past quarter and revenues grew to 46 Billion. You cannot even fathom such a thing.

Now it may be time to get re-acquainted with the excellent site, Things Apple is Worth More Than on Tumblr. I need to start making updates as Apple is now surging higher. Suggestions welcome anytime!

Explosive Ingredients
Thermite Reaction

Markets are running higher since mid December. Earnings have been good, and Apple just blew it up. Tomorrow the FED meets and will start their effort to be even more clear on their plans. It's an explosive mix.

Articles and rumors ran around in December that the FED was prepared to buy anywhere from 600 Billion to 1 Trillion more in mortgage backed securities in another round of QE. With markets running hot and oil still near $100 more QE may be a bit aggressive from the FED. That said measured inflation is still zero and there is Euro market drama in the wings. I do not discount that Boom Boom Bernanke may pull the trigger yet again in another effort to ignite animal spirits.

So is more FED buying priced in here or not? It's a close call, but I think there is a feeling that more help is on the way. At a minimum some kind of re-investment program like before (QE light) is in play. Anything else could set off a run higher that will have real legs. If the FED sticks with just keeping rates low until 2050 the market action from there is going to tell me a lot about how strong things are.

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

Apple is a great story, but its also an aberration.

Earnings are meeting / beating less often across the board.

Ask yourself why we need rates at 0 for an "extended period" if things are so great.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Anon, low rates are now a structural part of the system.

GawainsGhost said...

The interest rate depends on who the chairman is. He's hired for a set number of years, so he can't be fired. What matters is who the next president is who will appoint the next one.

But, yeah, interest rates are way too low. That's the real problem with the economy.

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