Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012

Everyone at the house and my Mom are super sick with a bad stomach bug. It's hydration duties here. I am feeling a bit tired and light headed off and on, but nothing too bad.

Market Operations
Last Thursday I bought the 3X short fund TZA. This was based on a sentiment indicator done by Robert Sinn, the SMS score. Things looked a bit poor as the rally went on, but limited volume and limited downside in TZA made me think the short idea would play out. Today was a solid correction to the downside and I closed the TZA trade for +4%. I think there could be some more weakness tomorrow but the Overbought cycle may be played out near term. We shall see.

As a side note, Robert will most likely be moving his market letter emails and SMS commentary to a paid service on his site. If you have been following along during the free trial you know the value his work provides. I will be subscribing in the New Year and this would only be the second paid service I have ever wanted to put my money down for (iBankCoin PPT and 12631 the other) so you know I feel there is actionable, quality work by Robert.

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012
Some notes I have made over the past few weeks on my ideas for the New Year.

Will Nots
-I will not rule out taking a trade good traders put on because I don't want to "steal" their idea. There are some serious smart people out there and it's no crime to follow on an idea if I find the merit in it.
-I will not buy Chinese Burrito stocks. (easy)
-I will not buy Banks. (usually easy)
-I will not buy metal miners. (failed a few times this year)
-I will not take things too personal if I can in any way help it.
-I will not allow fear to keep me away from medical attention if I am in need. (summer intestine infection)
-I will not allow Twitter sniper's to make me jumpy in positions.
-I will not use leverage.

-I will pay more attention to sentiment/momentum indicators when buying positions. Maybe 10 times I bought names ready for a move up, but a quick check in with something like the iBC PPT hybrid score would have flashed caution. Getting shaken out quickly only to see the pattern you were looking for to resume is annoying. Costly in lost opportunity as well.
-I will get back to each and every person that asks me a question via any medium (blog, email, twitter).
-I will expand stop ranges to deal with volatility.
-I will ride winners until they prove it's all over, not just a hiccup.
-I will keep looking for hole in the wall sites that no one reads as some of the sharpest writers I know most don't even know about.
-I will work to improve my writing.
-I will be better about leaving comments on blogs.
-I will work to morph my longer term trading style with my short term style. One did far better than the other this year.

To Do's
-Update blogroll and improve site.
-Figure out if moving the blog to another medium has any merit.
-Lose weight
-Be ready for fishing season
-Be more concise with blog posts
-Go to The Big Picture Conference if it's held again
-Meet more people for lunch or dinner

Have a good night.


Mr Slippery said...

Wow, an ambitious list of do's and don'ts, but even stronger in the form of promises (wills/will not's).

One thing I proved this year is that I am not a good short term trader. I did 3x the trades as in 2010 with lower performance. Only gold made it respectable again this year.

I should get a nice income boost in April from a falling mortgage rate. I will max i-bonds (me, the wife, and the kids) and add to gold and food stores. I will trade much less, if at all.

Good luck to you!

EconomicDisconnect said...

Hey man, how are you doing?

I traded more this year than any other two years. A ton of effort to get just slightly positive. After May it was just not an easy show to get any traction in. Best of luck in 2012 to you as well.

Doable Finance said...

I traded less this year than the year before.