Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Sick and Tired of Being Sick and Tired

Another banner drive home in the rain. Looking forward to a New York mini vacation without driving.

Sick and Tired of Being Sick and Tired
"I'm sick and tired of being sick and tired; I used to go to bed so high and wired" -Ozzy, I Just Want You

This morning started off shaky for markets and the S&P 500 quickly fell to 1074, which was about 9 points higher than the 1065 I mentioned last night as a long term support area. Things rallied from there, but later in the day the all too familiar fade came, and things started looking very bad. Then what?

Markets exploded higher going into the close in a wild move of panic buying. There were some rumors of Euro banking bailouts and all that but it just seemed like shorts had packed it in for the day and maybe everyone was just sick of feeling sick about the markets.

I still have not seen the kind of wash out capitulation that would make me super constructive on things, and we may never get one at this rate. This action is not healthy, but it is what it is. Can it last a few days? I think it could and I even made a buy today.

I have been watching the stock NI for some time. Here is a daily chart and you can see the reversal candle today right at $20.50 which is a key price for this stock:
I bought some stock before the close. I am not ready to commit much to this market, it still has to negotiate some very serious hurdles, but for the time being it seems a run may be in place.

In case you want to get all glassy eyed and party with this market, I would point you to one of the best essay's I have ever read which was published today. Josh Brown's "Season of the Witch" is the absolute must read for anyone here. Small snippet:
Now there are those who look at the recent data and say that it is only a slowing of growth, not an actual economic contraction. "So what if year-over-year GDP declines below 2%," they'll say. My response is that they may be right - but they should be aware that every single instance of Y-O-Y GDP growth slipping beneath 2% since 1948 has led to a recession. Every single time we've slowed down to this extent in the last 60 years we've gone down to the zero line (11 instances) and into negative territory (10 instances). The ship is not so easily turned.
This earnings season upcoming will be the final arbiter for how active I want to be in the markets going forward. Sick of feeling sick about the market? I understand, and maybe a rally will improve morale out there. Just don't forget there is some important information coming soon that demands your attention.

Have a good night.


GawainsGhost said...

Oh, I'm tired and sick of being sick and tired too. But I'm over my angst and depression. The 24-four hour rule after the worst collapse in franchise history is long over. I'm still not over it though.

For Friday Night Entertainment, I'll make my recommendations early. In honor of Jerry Jones,

"Drugstore Cowboy" by Humble Pie.


That's an oldie but goldie.

Or "Snakeskin Cowboy" by Ted Nugent.


Now that's a rocking song.

getyourselfconnected said...

Nice picks. Patriots get the Jets this weekend. Drama.

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, well, wait till I get my copy of Reckless Endangerment, then I'll have something to really be depressed about.

The Patriots are going to kill the Jets.

Of course, the only game I'm concerned about now is Dallas @ New England in two weeks. I don't know about that one. These Cardiac Cowboys, I'm telling you, they'll either lift your spirits or break your heart. But then it's always been that way.

If the Patriots have a weakness, it's on the defense, which the Cowboys' offense, assuming it's healthy and well-coached--and that's a major assumption--may be able to exploit.

But if it comes down to a duel between Brady and Romo, please.

The Sovereign Bohemian said...

Good luck on the NI stock. I like seeing your charts, too. Give me enough years and I'll learn something thru osmosis. :)

There for a second I thought you were going to quote a Waylon song. I'm so brain dead after work that I can't think of the title right now, but it started out with "I'm sick and tired of waking up sick and tired. As of today there's going to be some changes made..." and then my brain goes dead. I'll think of it tomorrow. Night...