Today markets gave back some ground but it really does not affect my topic tonight. The vicious rally seen over the past week or so has pulled major indices back from just about bear market territory to close to even for the year. Digest that little nugget for a second.
And I think there exists a chance for an even more extreme move.
I was thinking about this late last week and it's not exactly a novel idea. Josh Brown touched on it this morning:
Futures Higher as G20 Leaders Demand Euro Zone Not Ruin the Q4 Rally
Everyone needs a rally this fall. Everyone.
They're making it happen. They'll tolerate no distractions. Lukewarm data points will be treated as positive data points and positive data points will be received orgasmically. Negative stuff will be tossed over the market's shoulder and dismissed as "priced in already". Watch the shift in psychology - "just give me a reason to buy, man, just give me a reason."
It can be strange to see but markets demand several weeks (months?) of bad data before they will even consider a slow down is possible. After a market drop though, the slightest "better than expected" or other minor positive data point will be seized by the balls as proof positive a rebound has arrived. The power of positive thinking I guess.
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 daily going back to July:
The big drop felt different to me than other corrections when it started, just more sinister. The latest market rally has my attention as well. It's a bit stronger and more pronounced than other attempts.
And this is all about psychology now. Fear of missing out on a huge run is palpable out there. Time is running out on the clock this year and performance has been flaccid. If the S&P stays above 1230 another time it could cause a rush back into the market.
You have the gunpowder that is performance anxiety. You have some jet fuel that is some kind of Euro fix (delay Greek debt haircuts, kick can, use small soothing words on markets). China could ease which is more scary than good but for the near term will be kerosene. All you need is a spark.
Maybe earnings season will go well this time around. Maybe the FED drops a bomb. Who knows, it won't take much. I think a run to the 200 MDA could happen fast (1275 - 1280) and if it does the chasing could be Lord of the Rings epic at that point.
If you are a follower of markets, you can feel the tension now. The only pent up demand in this economy is the desire to buy stocks going higher.
Will it happen? CROX and IBM did not help things tonight after the bell. The Occupy Wall Street (I will have much more on this during the week) thorn is starting to draw blood. Europe may screw the pooch once again. Risks abound as well as common sense but here we are anyway a spark away from a mad rush back through the exit doors many ran out not long ago.
And that is Panic De-Selling.
Have a good night.