Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Middle of the Week

It's Wednesday and I am working on some stuff tonight. Short recap of the days events.

Market Operations
This morning markets were very nervous and a big drop soon followed. I was stopped out on my two positions in YMI and OCZ, both losses over 3%, yuck.

Overall Commentary
Huge reversal intra day resulted in numerous hammer prints across almost every stock out there. The Maginot line of S&P500 1250 is where it's at, no reason to beat it to death. At a minimum the buy volume today has market a near term reversal.

That said, I am not feeling too aggressive here. I am working on a couple ideas tonight. If things turn around great, if not I will be sidelined until we hit areas further away from now to the upside or downside to apply ideas. Keep your cash safe!

For a hammer to be proven correct, it requires confirmation by the next day's candles. One stock I missed out on and one I missed a sale on may be leading to a short term answer:

I may try these because I am crazy like that.

Have a good night.


Driving Under Influence said...

Great Market Insight!

GawainsGhost said...

Head and shoulders above the rest.

It's an old saying on Wall Street. Think of a sine curve. Prices go up, prices go down. The head is the top of the curve. The shoulders are the rise and decline. And it's cyclical.

The problem comes in when the decline chops off the head of the next cycle. This happens in all markets, and it's something to be wary of.

I just finished entering all the information for the price opinion of this stupid house. Oh, and just out of curiosity, I looked at the additional photos on the listing, because I didn't have access to the interior.

Unhinged cabinet doors, upraised toilet seats. Some realtors don't know how to present a house.

Do you have any idea what would happen if I came home and gave my mother pictures of bathrooms with the toilet seats up? Or if I didn't move the garbage can to the side of the house before I took the front view?

I'd have to go back to the house, lower the toilet seats, move the garbage can, and take new pictures. As for the cabinet doors, if this were our listing, they'd have been repaired.

Anyway, I didn't go into further detail on writing a price opinion, when I avoided the subject of these pain-in-the-ass websites it has to be entered on. You wouldn't believe the detail required: address, distance from subject, original list price, last list price, sales price, date of sale, days on market, neighborhood quality, lot size, square footage, number of rooms, bedrooms, baths, garage space, condition, fence or not, ammenities, the list goes on.

To enter the subject information, then the information on three comparable sales and three comparable listings, make the adjustments, provide comments, arrive at a price opinion, it takes hours.

I doubt they're going to like this price opinion, as I gave it to my mother to look over. No doubt she'll make more adjustments and lower the price. The only thing that concerns her is what we can reasonably sell the house for if we get the listing. That's before we incrue the expenses of time, money, gas, marketing, advertising, not to mention board membership and MLS dues.

Good grief, what a market. From what I'm reading, the entire Western world is overleveraged, deep in debt, and facing a crisis. Wages are stagnant, unemployment is up, production is down, consumers aren't spending, buyers aren't buying, sellers can't sell, the whole thing is a mess.

There will be a correction. It's inevitable, and it will be painfull. I expect a major downturn later this summer or early in the fall, across all assett classes.

GawainsGhost said...

By the way, my recommendation for Friday Night Entertainment is The Rolling Stones, "Hand of Fate."

A hidden gem from the album Black and Blue.

GawainsGhost said...

One Hit to the Body.

Looking at the markets today, I'd say that's what it was.

Just remember that hot money eats beta for lunch. Real money seeks alpha. But they're not serving much of that these days.

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains, very nice analogy!

Anonymous said...

If you think the markets are crazy?

I am currently jumping out of perfectly good aircraft at high altitude...

The only think I am more concerned about in the next few days is did the T-10 open and will I PLF correctly.


PS: If you can control your fear you will cease to be a slave ;)-<

Watchtower said...

G, jumping out of a perfectly good airplane is one of the things on my 'bucket list'.

Too cool!

getyourselfconnected said...

G, you are the man!

Small Business said...

Very well said G. Keep it coming.