The Black Hole in Wyoming
So tomorrow is the day. Ben Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech on FED policy. It's the event of the summer and you are all invited. Dress nice folks, this is the big time!
Title of this post was inspired by that atrocious sci-fi movie long ago, "The Black Hole":
Emotions are high and guesses run all over the place. My ideas on what will happen, and their chances are:
1.) Full blown QE 3 for 1 Trillion announced (will begin in October). Markets go full lift off and it will be weeks until anyone looks back. Bernanke is the hamburglar stealing any chance you have at saving anything.
chance: 25%
2.) Bernanke uses soft words to say that QE will come, but not right this second as he downgrades economy. Markets protest for Friday, but solid uptrend starts next week.
chance: 60%
3.) Bernanke says FED will be on watch, but that the US CONgress should get involved in stimulus and not rely on just the FED. Markets close for Friday afternoon.
chance: 15%
Of course it will be some kind of blend of 1 and 2 most likely.
Even after a year of all the green shoots and being welcomed to the recovery, markets need help and another housing hand out is on the way, from Trader Mark:
White House Considering Plan for Country Wide Refinance of Government Backed Mortgages
It's never going to end. It's not. Stop pretending it will.
Freedom Rock
Classic commercial time:
Have a good night.
9 comments:
All this talk of the hurricane is freaking me out!
I hope you don't need to eat all that Spam and rice, because that alone will kill you.
Stay safe, buddy!
No worries, it will be fine but the TV news has to place ads ya know?
We'll get it first and, probably, worst. :) So I'll let you know how it goes, unless the power is out and civilization's doomed. In which case I'll send smoke signals your way instead.
Fire in the [Jackson] hole!
Good one on the hole reference!
That 10kw genny is going to be nice!
How much farther down (if any) do you expect PM's to go if Bernanke doesn't talk the QE3 talk?
Watchtower,
its a muddled picture. The fiat angle is not going away anytime soon, but a bit of mad dash for any return hit gold, like it did silver, over the last week. Both are better off without MOMO crap behind them. If no QE 3 or a strong hint of something tomorrow, metals could drop 10-15%. I would maybe crack open the long term account if it happens because more notional money is coming one way or another.
Stay safe man. I'm jealous of your generator with natural gas.
I've got a 5Kw Coleman that runs on unleaded. I probably should start it up this weekend to make sure it still starts. I've had it for 12 years and only used it three times. It's nice to have when you need it.
Have a good weekend!
In the spirit of puns, I offer my own hole. Um, well, you know!!
Bernanke's Hole Punch?
Meh, I've been through life five problems down here. You'll likely get a lot of wind and rain, that's about it. The media is overhyping this storm. What's going to happen is this. As the hurricane moves along the east coast and enters colder waters, it will lose energy and strength, so the impact won't be nearly as severe as it's being made out to be. But it would be a good idea to stock up on bottled water and nonperishable food items.
Down here the problem is with the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf stream current is warm water that enters from the south and travels along the coast all the way to Florida. Thus, when a hurricane enters the gulf, the stream acts as an accelerant, and the storm circles around, gaining energy and strength. We've had some big ones.
There was a storm in the early 1900s that totally destroyed Galveston. And if a powerful enough storm hit Padre Island, it would be obliterated, because it really isn't an island, just a sand bar that can be moved. If that happened, all those hotels and condos would then be really underwater.
As for Bernanke, pssst, this guy doesn't have any more ammo on his belt.
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