I would strongly suggest to any and all taking a mental checkout break from time to time. Since last Thursday I can say that I did not think about work, the markets, things economic, or even football! I would say that of course my man #29 Kevin Harvick won the Saturday night race at Daytona Speedway!
I think my point (there is one?) is that a real break from the normal can do one plenty of good.
It's Good and Broke Now
With the above in mind, I wanted to open up this Tuesday morning with a fresh look at things and try to put aside my own thoughts on things to just read news and watch things happen. Of course what I was reading was not confidence boosting. A small section of headlines:
-Older, More Educated Workers Have Highest Length of Unemployment
-APC Halted As 200 Shares Trade At $100,000 (was a $39 stock!)
-After Repeated Facts Presented That Stress Tests Are Scam, Europe Relents To Disclose Testing Methods, Even As Tests Still Remain A Scam
-IMF - BIS Engaged in Gold Swaps to about 380 Tons; Organized Looting of Sovereign Wealth
-Massive Stock Rally Melts Away, Time To Go Back To Worrying About Great Depression 2.0
There were others, but that should set the tone.
I could parse all this, and when I get back in the swing of things I will, but for now just a couple of unifying thoughts to keep in mind.
First, stock indices were in shouting distance of recent highs not that long ago; with several million people having lost their job and several million more losing their home this should be alarm bell time. The US economy has become too dependent on the financial sector and asset inflation for growth. If the economy does not need millions in the workforce, something is very wrong.
Second, everyone is focused on jobs. Calculated Risk often writes the government should be focused on "jobs, jobs, jobs!" but one has to ask "How, how, how?". Besides the usual pay a guy to dig a ditch and another guy to fill it, how can the government really target job growth?
This leaves us with the third macro consideration. Free money has done next to nothing for the broader economy, though it has allowed record banking profits and the US government to sell tons of debt to banks they loaned said money to (I know, seems like it makes no sense, but it is how it is done!). I think the FED never thought things would take this long to recover, and in fact they are not even making strides towards that end. How much longer the status quo will be accepted in the biggest question facing the economy right now.
It seems good and broke now.
Have a good night.