My family and me are thankfully fully removed from the happenings in Boston over the last 5 days. Many I know and care about have not been.
I think there is so much right now that is confusing and hard but let's all be thankful it's over.
All my prayers and best for the Boston/Cambridge area tonight.
J
Friday, April 19, 2013
Friday, April 12, 2013
Circular Logic and Bad Candles. A Place for Economic Disconnect?
A moment of your time if you please.
I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.
NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.
Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:
So just that I get it:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?
B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.
C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?
As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.
Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.
I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
Candle folks would call that a bearish engulfing on heavy volume (volume don't matter, I know) and it's negated almost immediately. I have about 40 of these highlighted over the last 2 months across many things. technicals are fucked now. Low volume paints are candle killers. Don't bother.
And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.
In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.
It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.
On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.
Have a good night.
I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.
NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.
Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?
B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.
C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?
As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.
Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.
I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.
In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.
It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.
On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.
Have a good night.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Some funny Stuff
Hey all!!!
Hope you are all well.
Some funny tidbits tonight.
-Japan
-Calculated Risk so bullish on housing (he should know better)
-Same old stuff; buy everything now due to "great rotation" bla bla bla and bla
To be honest I am getting set up to do some serious fishing this Spring/Summer. Even if I had stayed writing on things finance, I can't be any more clear on how sentiment and herd moves have taken over things. The market is not the economy and vice versa. Bunch of cowboys trying to rip each other off. At least in a year or so we get a final answer on Keynesian bull shit from Japan. Oh, and please keep selling your gold and silver. Been waiting for the hot money to leave for over 5 years. Exit already.
My submission, for funniest video EVER is this. NOTE: Don't play if you are easily offended (I'm serious):
Have a good night.
Hope you are all well.
Some funny tidbits tonight.
-Japan
-Calculated Risk so bullish on housing (he should know better)
-Same old stuff; buy everything now due to "great rotation" bla bla bla and bla
To be honest I am getting set up to do some serious fishing this Spring/Summer. Even if I had stayed writing on things finance, I can't be any more clear on how sentiment and herd moves have taken over things. The market is not the economy and vice versa. Bunch of cowboys trying to rip each other off. At least in a year or so we get a final answer on Keynesian bull shit from Japan. Oh, and please keep selling your gold and silver. Been waiting for the hot money to leave for over 5 years. Exit already.
My submission, for funniest video EVER is this. NOTE: Don't play if you are easily offended (I'm serious):
Have a good night.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
"But I, being poor, have only my dreams"
Brilliant clip from a way under seen film "Equillibrium":
Very beautiful.
I mentioned to a friend of mine no one would be short going into Sunday night and I was right.
As away as I have been it's clear most if not all of my heroes are falling into the trap of making money versus doing whats right. Glad, so glad I have walked away.
If the S&P 500 was at 3000 but they were burning bodies for fuel, money types would laud the efficiency and look at margins for companies.
All this with the backstop of a Federal Reserve as a savior. Be honest, it's nothing you are doing, just a helping hand that you all accept. Index funds are keeping pace or better. No one needs a stock guy in a bull market.
I could never on this blog get people in the wider sphere to get past returns and money. Too bad. I thought doing whats right and integrity were paramount.
Wow. Just wow.
Very beautiful.
I mentioned to a friend of mine no one would be short going into Sunday night and I was right.
As away as I have been it's clear most if not all of my heroes are falling into the trap of making money versus doing whats right. Glad, so glad I have walked away.
If the S&P 500 was at 3000 but they were burning bodies for fuel, money types would laud the efficiency and look at margins for companies.
All this with the backstop of a Federal Reserve as a savior. Be honest, it's nothing you are doing, just a helping hand that you all accept. Index funds are keeping pace or better. No one needs a stock guy in a bull market.
I could never on this blog get people in the wider sphere to get past returns and money. Too bad. I thought doing whats right and integrity were paramount.
Wow. Just wow.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Friday Night Entertainment Light
A little throw back to Friday Night Entertainment. Enjoy.
The 25 Greatest Unscripted Scenes in Films
Saw this one this week, 25 of the best unscripted scenes in movie history. As the description says, please leave the captions ON to see some extra info. My favorites are #19 (Aliens "Game OVER"), #17 (The Usual Suspects lineup), #12 (Jaws "Your gonna need a bigger boat"), and #6 (Blade Runner "tears in rain"):
Nice collection.
69 'sacks' or 69 'sex'? You Decide
You have to make the call but watch this news clip and decide. I say '69 sex':
Yup.
Magnetic Silly Putty
I bought two of these magnetic silly putty toys, one for me and one for my wife. They are AWESOME!!!!! Highly recommended desk toy or just to help you puzzle out magnetic field lines and other physics stuff:
You can buy some at Simply Clever Toys.
Daniel H. Wilson Scores Again
A while back I reviewed Daniel H. Wilson's seminal novel "Robopocalypse" and gave it my highest recommendation:
I was reminded of his work by two things. One was this picture which shows how low the robots will go, attacking our own kittens for crying out loud:
And second I read his new book this week, "AMPED":
And came away both horrified and amazed. Get this book as well.
Have a good night.
The 25 Greatest Unscripted Scenes in Films
Saw this one this week, 25 of the best unscripted scenes in movie history. As the description says, please leave the captions ON to see some extra info. My favorites are #19 (Aliens "Game OVER"), #17 (The Usual Suspects lineup), #12 (Jaws "Your gonna need a bigger boat"), and #6 (Blade Runner "tears in rain"):
Nice collection.
69 'sacks' or 69 'sex'? You Decide
You have to make the call but watch this news clip and decide. I say '69 sex':
Yup.
Magnetic Silly Putty
I bought two of these magnetic silly putty toys, one for me and one for my wife. They are AWESOME!!!!! Highly recommended desk toy or just to help you puzzle out magnetic field lines and other physics stuff:
Daniel H. Wilson Scores Again
A while back I reviewed Daniel H. Wilson's seminal novel "Robopocalypse" and gave it my highest recommendation:
And came away both horrified and amazed. Get this book as well.
Have a good night.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
When Classics Get Reborn
Happy Valentine's Day!
I survived the deluge of snow here in Massachusetts intact, not even a need for the generator. A snow blower would have been nice, but the plow guy did the best he could.
A quick word to the New England Patriots; PAY Talib, GET Ed Reed. Let Welker walk and maybe get a cheaper kicker. That is all.
When Classics Get Reborn
I am coming into my 37th birthday window. Last year you may recall I was not happy about year 36, but here I am and all the better going forward. Two weeks cigarette free, and to be honest it feels good. Except for this freaking headache in the center of my head at the top of my nose. Any advice appreciated.
As such, I love older music. Sometimes an older song either gets re-done or gets imprinted on you in another way. I have two examples to show you.
First up, Del Shannon's immortal "Runaway". It stands alone as an all time classic, just take a listen:
Most excellent.
Now the first time I heard this song, it was a later version Del recorded for the great TV show "Crime Story" starring Dennis Farina (yes, the Xfinity guy). A bit more electric, some piano, and lyrics aimed at the show. I like this version better than the original:
And an old classic is reborn. Well, it was back then anyway.
I have to say, I had never heard of Thurston Harris. Thurston Howell III, yes, but not Harris! The first time I heard the song "Little Bitty Pretty One" was in the film "Christine" at a particular revenge scene:
Nice.
The OG-riginal:
Old school great. And by John Carpenter's film, a classic had new life.
Who can forget Bob Dylan's song "All Along the Watchtower"? Well, everyone after Jimi Hendrix made it his own:
Yuppers.
Recently (kind of) The Mighty Mighty Bosstones forever took "Detroit Rock City" from KISS in my eyes:
That works.
What comes to mind for you? Better new versions or better old versions?
Have a good night.
I survived the deluge of snow here in Massachusetts intact, not even a need for the generator. A snow blower would have been nice, but the plow guy did the best he could.
A quick word to the New England Patriots; PAY Talib, GET Ed Reed. Let Welker walk and maybe get a cheaper kicker. That is all.
When Classics Get Reborn
I am coming into my 37th birthday window. Last year you may recall I was not happy about year 36, but here I am and all the better going forward. Two weeks cigarette free, and to be honest it feels good. Except for this freaking headache in the center of my head at the top of my nose. Any advice appreciated.
As such, I love older music. Sometimes an older song either gets re-done or gets imprinted on you in another way. I have two examples to show you.
First up, Del Shannon's immortal "Runaway". It stands alone as an all time classic, just take a listen:
Most excellent.
Now the first time I heard this song, it was a later version Del recorded for the great TV show "Crime Story" starring Dennis Farina (yes, the Xfinity guy). A bit more electric, some piano, and lyrics aimed at the show. I like this version better than the original:
And an old classic is reborn. Well, it was back then anyway.
I have to say, I had never heard of Thurston Harris. Thurston Howell III, yes, but not Harris! The first time I heard the song "Little Bitty Pretty One" was in the film "Christine" at a particular revenge scene:
Nice.
The OG-riginal:
Old school great. And by John Carpenter's film, a classic had new life.
Who can forget Bob Dylan's song "All Along the Watchtower"? Well, everyone after Jimi Hendrix made it his own:
Yuppers.
Recently (kind of) The Mighty Mighty Bosstones forever took "Detroit Rock City" from KISS in my eyes:
That works.
What comes to mind for you? Better new versions or better old versions?
Have a good night.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
On The Fallacy of the "Greater Good" and a Great Song
Hey all.
Don't mention the Patriots. An ugly show last week that left me scratching my head. I don't think the Pats could have beaten San Francisco anyway, but still, a no show in the second half last week. That window is getting so small now for them.
I wanted to take a second to say something, something without spelling it all out for you. I think anyone that has read me over the years will understand, others not so. Here goes.
On The Fallacy of the "Greater Good"
So the financial "crisis" is over.
My friend Josh Brown has a great piece up this week, aptly titled "The Word is Out, Just So You Know" and it's solid and spot on. I don't know for myself if this is another 2003-2007 never ending run up or another fake out. Honestly, I don't care.
No matter what happened, things were going to be ok after a bit. That's the truth.
It's the fallacy of "The Greater Good" that kills me. Doing wrong to get to a right. I mean, do you all teach your kids that? All I hear is how everyone wants to provide a future for their kids, bla bla and all that. You teach them to cut corners, cheat, lie, and steal to get to an endpoint? The glory of the greater good gets hollow.
I don't want to spend a bunch of time on this.
How you get somewhere is just as, and maybe more so, important than getting there. My problem with all this, and it's a big problem, is that it was all a fucking handout. The Fed, the Treasury, two Presidents gave the biggest handout to the worst criminal rip off in America history. It does not sit well. But hey, money is getting made right?
Ever sit by your Dad and know he is a vegetable after a massive heart attack? The most powerful railroad man you have ever seen? The fuck do a few dollars mean then? Know your sister is a full blown Bi-Polar nut case and you can never see her again? See your mother crumble through all this, and only your effort and integrity carries her through?
You stand. You hold up.
But no one that is a cheat can stand, and some that need handouts can never walk.
I don't sell stuff. I don't provide services. Whether the world ended in 2009 or we are now on track for a S&P 500 run to 2500 I don't have a real vested interest.
There is no honor, and no integrity anymore. You may think a few bucks make things 'right' but it only blunts the feeling to do what's right. Any student of history knows what happens when the core of a society gets eroded. If you can turn your head for criminals to rob you, so your 401k comes back, you will turn your head for most anything. That's the truth.
So turn your head.
Great Song
I forgot about this song, but I do love it. The fiddle gets played almost to a high note, yet comes back down and so the song seems sad. Check out The Waterboys with "Fisherman's Blues":
Have a good night.
Don't mention the Patriots. An ugly show last week that left me scratching my head. I don't think the Pats could have beaten San Francisco anyway, but still, a no show in the second half last week. That window is getting so small now for them.
I wanted to take a second to say something, something without spelling it all out for you. I think anyone that has read me over the years will understand, others not so. Here goes.
On The Fallacy of the "Greater Good"
So the financial "crisis" is over.
My friend Josh Brown has a great piece up this week, aptly titled "The Word is Out, Just So You Know" and it's solid and spot on. I don't know for myself if this is another 2003-2007 never ending run up or another fake out. Honestly, I don't care.
No matter what happened, things were going to be ok after a bit. That's the truth.
It's the fallacy of "The Greater Good" that kills me. Doing wrong to get to a right. I mean, do you all teach your kids that? All I hear is how everyone wants to provide a future for their kids, bla bla and all that. You teach them to cut corners, cheat, lie, and steal to get to an endpoint? The glory of the greater good gets hollow.
I don't want to spend a bunch of time on this.
How you get somewhere is just as, and maybe more so, important than getting there. My problem with all this, and it's a big problem, is that it was all a fucking handout. The Fed, the Treasury, two Presidents gave the biggest handout to the worst criminal rip off in America history. It does not sit well. But hey, money is getting made right?
Ever sit by your Dad and know he is a vegetable after a massive heart attack? The most powerful railroad man you have ever seen? The fuck do a few dollars mean then? Know your sister is a full blown Bi-Polar nut case and you can never see her again? See your mother crumble through all this, and only your effort and integrity carries her through?
You stand. You hold up.
But no one that is a cheat can stand, and some that need handouts can never walk.
I don't sell stuff. I don't provide services. Whether the world ended in 2009 or we are now on track for a S&P 500 run to 2500 I don't have a real vested interest.
There is no honor, and no integrity anymore. You may think a few bucks make things 'right' but it only blunts the feeling to do what's right. Any student of history knows what happens when the core of a society gets eroded. If you can turn your head for criminals to rob you, so your 401k comes back, you will turn your head for most anything. That's the truth.
So turn your head.
Great Song
I forgot about this song, but I do love it. The fiddle gets played almost to a high note, yet comes back down and so the song seems sad. Check out The Waterboys with "Fisherman's Blues":
Have a good night.
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