A moment of your time if you please.
I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.
NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.
Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?
B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.
C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?
As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.
Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.
I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.
In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.
It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.
On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.
Have a good night.