Friday, April 12, 2013

Circular Logic and Bad Candles. A Place for Economic Disconnect?

A moment of your time if you please.

I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.


Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:

So just that I get it:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?

B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.

C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?

As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.

Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.

I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
Candle folks would call that a bearish engulfing on heavy volume (volume don't matter, I know) and it's negated almost immediately. I have about 40 of these highlighted over the last 2 months across many things. technicals are fucked now. Low volume paints are candle killers. Don't bother.

And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.

In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.

It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.

On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.

Have a good night.


Smylee Smith said...

Good read.. More importantly where have you been? lol I know.. Well just know that you are missed.. I figured you would like this, so watch it. Do you think they were High when they did this? lol.

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GawainsGhost said...

OK, buddy, I got your email. Thought I might wander in and make a comment.

There is no such thing as circular logic. It's a popular term, but all true logic is straight on, analytical and concise. What the term actually means is illogic. Only illogic is circular. It means thinking in circles, and that is not logical. Or so Spock said on Star Trek.

By the way, do you know where he got the Vulcan hand signal from? Leanord Nimoy was a Jew. At the synagog there was this ceremony where the priests would walk down the aisle. Everyone had to close their eyes. Well, Nimoy opened his and saw the priests making this hand signal, so to bless the congregation. He took it all the way to television and made it famous. "Live long and prosper."

Now that's logical and not in a circular way.

WTF is going on? I don't know, but I could hazard a guess. The establishment politicians are making a play. They're immune from prosecution for insider trading, you know. So they're buying stocks now because they intend to cash in before the inevitable crash. It makes perfect sense to me. I mean, if you can't be charged with a crime, why not use the system to your advantage?

Hell, they're designing the system to use it to their own advantage. They've written the laws that make them immune from prosecution. So, they drive up the stock market, then cash in, and walk away with a whole lot of money. And the suckers, that would be the people who voted these looters into office, are left holding the bill.

This is why I hate the establishment of both parties. They're all corrupt. This is why I'm a libertarian (small l). The Libertarian party is corrupt as well. The TEA party (taxed enough already) I can relate to, but I went to one of their rallies way back when, and most of the people I met there were stupid, had no clue of what was going on.

This is why my basic political strategy is to vote against every incumbent. Get into office, do your job, and then go home. It's very simple really. If you get into office and don't do your job, then there's no reason to re-elect you. If you get into office and do your job, then there's no reason to re-elect you. I like a lot of turnover.

This is my reasoning, and it is not illogical. All politicians are corrupt. They set up a system wherein they could enrich themselves on the backs of the taxpayers. To hell with them.

Mark Twain wrote, "Imagine you were an idiot. Imagine you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself."

These are words that I live by. If you want to know WTF is going on, look at the political class. They're the ones who are ripping everybody off. And getting away with it. Why these people keep getting elected is beyond my ability to comprehend.

CT-Hilltopper said...

Hi GYSC,,,I also got your e-mail.

The thing to keep in mind is that everything will work until it doesn't.

You keep that in the back of your mind, and you can't go wrong. LOL

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Anonymous said...

Get said...In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does.

Words to remember GYSC. Words to remember. Just so you know, I am the anon, who antagonized Jeff over at the "Housing Time Bomb" back in 2010-2012 about how wrong he was on the DC market.

The reason I was as confident as I was, is because everytime I tried to be even MILDLY bullish on anything related to housing, PEOPLE ON THAT SITE WOULD RESOUNDINGLY PIPE UP IN UNISON, ALL TELLING ME HOW WRONG I WAS!!!!!

In all my years, on this planet, ive never seen one side of the boat so overloaded. Everyone there, including principally you, CT HILLTOPPER, and Jeffy were RESOUNDINGLY CERTAIN that being bullish would end in tears for me.

Now eventually, the 3 of you lost your "certainty" about the future. You and I eventually developed a friendship on our shared fear of robot world domination, CT hilltopper, just went on about "OBLAHMA" or whatever her rant of the day was, and, most importantly, your dear leader, Jeffy, went silent - thoroughly humiliated in part about how stunningly wrong he was on DC area housing.

Since, then, I have become far less certain. My "risk on" trade became one of general complacency, such that today, I have no idea which way the market will go. (Really I havent since early 2012).

Still, I want to thank you, CT and Jeff, for being my sounding board. 2009-2012 was the easiest money I have ever made.

Anyway, thats all in the past now. Again, just a reminder, next time you see the boat so overloaded with opinions on one side (either resoundingly certain bullishness OR resoundingly certain bearishness), run the other way just as fast as you can.


Watchtower said...

GYSC, I went up in the attic of the garage today to get my fishing gear down for the upcoming season.

I found it therapeutic : )

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These are words that I live by. If you want to know WTF is going on, look at the political class.
This is why I hate the establishment of both parties. They're all corrupt

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