Another Monday over. The elliptical at the gym is losing the war against me, I keep getting stronger every time. Feel very good, and I think my concentration has become better.
Position Review
Anytime you are in positions you have to review where they are and if the story has changed from when you bought in. The story could be technical or fundamental. Here is my own review of my open 6 longs and with minimal comments. Click on any chart for larger view.
MBFI:
WRI:
CTXS:
PETD:
WLK:
BANR:
A mixed bag, but nothing here gives me reason to sell just yet. MBFI may be the weakest of the 6 at this point.
About 70 degrees here today, just unreal. Winter has about run out of time. I am not sad to see it go. My eye is good to go, no lasting issues.
Big Banks are a "Dirty Business"
I don't want to spend much time on this topic.
Big banks are disgusting, and their collusion and partnership with the FED is stomach churning. The "Stress Test" results being first leaked then released ahead of schedule is just another blatant abuse of the financial system. Banks and the Fed, in the words of Don Vito Corleone, are a "Dirty Business":
With thousands of stocks out there I have no idea why the rush to buy in and support such crap. Returns, money, a trade bla bla bla boring. No need, none at all.
Market Notes
Today looked and felt for a while like a sort of panic buying blow off top sort of thing. Only time will tell, but I remain open minded. Some stocks I have been in or opened Monday have moved out of nice bases that were very compressed, not just some random run up out of no where. ChessNwine has an excellent study on this in today's market recap: Stock Market Recap 3/13/2012
Here are my open positions and notes. Click any chart for larger view.
Clearly all of these names do not sport vertical charts with no tether to reality. Solid basing, volume in weight, and then price movement. As long as I can find individual setups like these I am not all that interested in the indices overall.
Trading Account Update
No changes in trading positions. BANR was actually green all day today as was WRI. WFM is still holding up well. This morning's selling was a bit more nasty than usual for 2012, but buyers came back in and bought stocks for the second half of the day.
There was plenty of grumbling today about a possible China slow down as well as the Fed coming out via their favorite channel, WSJ's John Hilsenrath, and hinted maybe they are holding off on more stimulus. Not a very friendly mix at all. For now it pays to view market action rather than try and over think what may come of these two important new stories. Keep in mind that money managers have been putting cash into stocks (as noted by The Reformed Broker) and that is unlikely to go full reverse without clear data a slowdown is at hand.
Green Stocks on Red Days
Over the past couple of weeks there have actually been some down days with plenty of red showing in stocks. Down days need not be hated or feared though, sometimes they actually can help you see a new direction.
First off, some disclaimers. This post pertains to a generally up trending market or one that is set in a range sideways. Down trend markets get a few more layers of complication and I am leaving that out for now. Green stocks on red days is not usually a one day event that you can pin a whole trading plan around, but more of a weight of evidence sort of thing. With that said, here we go.
On down days I know I tend to focus most on any names I am long. That's natural and makes sense. Second up for most will be the big "tell" stocks or commodities like AAPL, SLV, or maybe copper and oil. Again, this makes sense and is intuitive.
But on down days, or even better, a string of them the market may hint or whisper where the action may turn up next.
You can skip over any ETF short like a PSQ or a TZA. Funny thing but on a down day I will read how the short funds are "working". Really? I kind of hope so. Also any stock that has had positive earnings news or positive news headlines will merit a question mark as that could be a one day pop sort of thing and may not apply to a general market move. Also keep in mind "safe" plays like bonds, utilities, tobacco, or staples will act more like a weigh station for money and not a new push into those sectors for a longer move.
On "dip" days money will want to get in to names they have missed or names they want to rotate into. I like to think of runs in the market as waves of the ocean, as the power of fund flows pours out on the beach, another wave is right behind riding in the next move:
It pays to make sure on down days you are keeping track of green stocks. If buyers want in even on pull backs it is a clear statement of the desire and direction of money flow. Taken over days should that happen, it is one of the more powerful signals I know of rotation and can point you in a new profitable direction.
For the ultra nerdy you may try to plot buy volume with price over time in something called a Gantt Chart. Used in the professional world this type of layout tracks changes and progress over time. There is no reason why one cannot apply this chart to show sector rotation and stock run lifetime in a cycle over time:
I actually used to make these but have been a touch too busy to keep them up. I need to get back to it.
Messy snow here but commute in and out was no problem. Going to rain all day tomorrow. Dark and grey, dark and grey.
Market Observations and Activity
What's left to say really? Things are stalled out and today there was some beatings handed out. While one of my positions, CACI, was not really near my stop out I cut it today for a -2% loss. I may have been early on this one breaking over $60, or late in a market cycle. Just looked weak and I wanted to lighten up. BANR was in a fist fight at the $20.50 level on high volume. WRI hung around. WFM was the only bright spot, closing strong over the $82 level.
Next week is pivotal if a higher run is in the cards. Market looks tired. Many solid looks that have been performing are at best stalling or at worst going in full reverse. There are some things working, but most I see are earnings or news based run ups. This does not mean a huge bear market is upon us, and I do not believe one is. This sideways snooze fest could go on but it's not worth me chasing names during that kind of market. More on Sunday and will look at more things.
Friday Night Entertainment
Let me see what I can find.
Choose Your Own Adventure Books!
Came across a great post over at Weird Universe that discussed the old "Choose Your Own Adventure" books! I so loved them all when I was a kid. Seems the inventor, Edward Packard, now has them on Apple products (of course!) like the iPhone and iPad. Here are some pictures:
NEVER!
Loved this Abstruse Goose comic from today. In all the realms if disbelief the USA will not adopt the metric system! "Chrono-Synclastic Infundibulum" (click for larger view):
Too funny.
Optical Illusions
Just like the arrow in the FedEx logo is all I see now, after this the "&" character will never be the same:
see more epicfails
Film Clips
Check these out!
One of the best films I have ever seen was the handling of the King Arthur legend in "Excalibur". This clip is when Arthur is saved by the Holy Grail and then leads his knights back out to fight with some epic music on tap:
Ozzy will often start his shows with this very song. For extra credit, what song is this?
The only saving grace for "The Phantom Menace" was Darth Maul. Total bad ass Sith. I can spool the scene at the start of this clip when the doors open and the music plays for hours:
NICE!
Rock Blogging
Music for the masses.
Leading off tonight is a classic as picked by Sal Arnuk of Themis Trading. Open the show with Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison doing the blues!:
I love this performance so much, thanks! Follow Sal on Twitter @ThemisSal
MY friend and fellow 12631 trader Arctic Gambino has really turned me on to the Black Keys. Catch this live show of "Howlin' for You":
Very nice selection. Check Arctic out on Twitter @a_bh_a
Ok, a little something different. Please give this one a shot and listen to the end, it's really too funny! Bryan Bowers and "The Scotsman":
Awesome, yes?
Via Twitter here is my man @CapCube with a request for Weezer's "Troublemaker":
Not bad at all.
Ok, one more chance at the song from "Excalibur" and like I said, Ozzy loves to open with it. Here is "I Don't Know" with Randy Rhoads:
Unreal good. I get chills on this one.
Two left.
I don't know why Hole ended up dying, ok I do Courtney! Plenty of wonderful songs left behind though. How about "Violet":
Love that one!
Last call, grab a drink, a girl, or a stapler!
Turn the speakers WAY Up for Jimi Hendrix and "All Along the Watchtower":
