Work in Progress

Only had 3 days so far of a 4 day work week, but still feels long! Alas, tomorrow is Friday!

This does mean you need to get Friday Night Entertainment blog requests in on the comments or over Twitter.

Market Operations
I sold out of AREX today from my buy on 1/31/2012 (Great work up on this one by ChessNwine, thanks!). Gain was +6.4%. There is nothing really wrong with the chart or the name, now that I am out it may well run higher big time. I have held the stock for 3 weeks and was ready to move on. Also, have been working on some screens that I want to direct more capital towards. Here is a look and I had a target on this around $41:

Good stuff.

Work in Progress
As the markets change, one has to adapt as well. When I re-entered the trading scene and mindset at the start of 2011 I was focused on bounce plays and oversold rebounds as the market had been very aggressive finding things of that sort to put money in. It worked well, for a while. After the Japan earthquake disaster things got much more difficult and the market sped up the tempo finding moving stocks then walking away. Rotation on an almost daily rate. Difficult to trade from a longer time frame (days- to 2 weeks is my trading window). Then the summer came and while shorting did not work in my trading account, things were very dicey.

By the end of the summer a new trend emerged and that was strictly watching overbought/oversold conditions as markets moved as one to each apex and bottom almost weekly. Some longer runs up and down formed, but by the time you could trust them, things changed.

2012 has been a much better environment. The start of 2012 has been a great time for many, and I am included. Patterns are going to end points, accumulation means something, the nerves have been assuaged.

And so things change again.

I have been noticing that many of my screens have been seeing stocks with excellent returns. Problem is my homework nights over the weekends are not finding the stocks moving in the week ahead, but a week after that or more. But they are finding great results and leads. I have a few screens built inside the iBC PPT that are working, but my timing has been off.

I see this as a good thing.

Instead of recklessly plowing into anything moving, larger money is back to scoping out a position, layering in, and holding on. This takes time and commitment. It is a huge positive for the market going forward.

As such, I want to try and work on these screens and ideas and allow them more of my focus. I have been testing plenty of the screens and I would be doing well had I allowed a touch more time for setups to both fully form AND stay on my radar. Maybe I am used to the hyper active turnarounds from times past, but I am dropping things from my main gun sights and that lag seems to be what's needed.

Of course, things could change. They always do.

Have a good night.

Do Not Feed Friday After Midnight

3 day weekend here! Always nice to get an extra break.

Market Observations
Today was option expiration and as usual it was a tight range day. I will cover market strategy closer to next week. Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

I made a rookie dumb mistake today with my position in AREX. Last week the stock touched over $38 and promptly pulled back. From the chart and the buy volume I expected to get another shot over $38 and that would be my target area and result in a 10% gain. The stock ramped up at the open today and was well over $38. I had meetings scheduled for almost the entire day and I figured I could grab the sale later on in the day when I could watch the tape a little. Never even came close again. An ugly session leaves AREX at $36.66 (CREEPY!) and not only did I miss my sale but that was a nasty reversal day. I could have set a stop at $38 and went off to meetings, but I did not. It was sloppy and poorly done. If I get something out of this trade it will be in spite of my trading it, not because of it.

Friday Night Entertainment
No Emmy nomination yet, but I think one will be coming soon.....

Alone in the Shadow of Robot Dominion Over Man, My Voice Still Cries Out
I get the feeling that my coverage of robots and the chance (90% and rising) that said robots will turn on the human race is a running gag here to many readers. It's NOT! I am serious, and don't call me Shirley!

Well hot off the presses via Extreme Tech is the announcement of a new military program modeled after the "Avatar" line of thought! Here you go:
DARPA reveals Avatar program, robot soldiers incoming
A snippet:

In the words of DARPA itself, the Avatar program will work on “interfaces and algorithms to enable a soldier to effectively partner with a semi-autonomous bipedal machine and allow it to act as the soldier’s surrogate.” In other words, DARPA wants to develop the walking equivalent of an unarmed aerial vehicle; a bipedal robot drone where the controlling soldier is hundreds or thousands of miles away from war front.

Unarmed, LOL too funny.

Here is Boston Dynamics "PETMAN", we are doomed:

But keep laughing.

Image Candy
Some fun stuff to gander at.

Napoleon might have won at Waterloo with this as his trusted steed:
see more Historic LOL

Wait, bears don't do their thing in the woods?:

see more Very Demotivational
Confused.

Film Clips
Some films for consideration.

Maybe one of my all time favorite scenes is from "Matrix: Revolutions" when Trinity (not @TXSSwingtrader Julie!) and the crew battle to get Neo back.
"Your really ready to die for this man?"
"BELIEVE IT":

Chills!
"If she has to she will kill every one of us".
Chills

Not a movie, but the last best chance for TV was "The Highlander" series. Skip to the 40:35 mark in this clip of "Homeland" and watch to end. If you are not impressed, I don't know what to say:

Quality.

Rock Blogging
Songs for the soul to set you free.

Need a ripper to get started, so a little Lenny Kravitz and "Are You Gonna Go My Way" is in order. Excellent!:

YES!

My man on Twitter and 12631, @PjDempsey, was looking for some live Pearl Jam and this is a nice video of "Black":

Nice.

I thought The Interloper might have been messing with me but after hearing Uncle Tupelo and the song "Moonshiner" I am glad I heard it:

Harmonica always gets me. Thanks.

Via Twitter and @CapCube here is The Clash and "I fought the Law":


Two songs left!

I need some Rage Against the Machine and "Renegades of Funk" will do nicely. Turn this up:


Last call!

My friend, formerly Trader Mark, has a new gig over at Market Montage and he did a AWESOME 80's tune play set of 80's rock last night. My counter is the great band Cinderella and "Somebody Save Me" and live is the only way:

GREAT!!!!!

Have a good night.

Position Review and Thoughts on Rotation

Never fond of Monday's but today was not actually half bad. Tonight I can access and use Twitter on my mobile phone but I cannot use any of the buttons or post tweets on my desktop computer. No one seems to have much of an idea about this. If you can help, email me or use the comments section.

Position Review and Thoughts on Rotation
I have been long a few stocks for a while now. After a few down days and some positive market movement today, it's a great time to review all 5 and see where things stand.

AREX
Opened a position on 1/31/12. The setup was a long intact uptrend and a move over the $34 range which was anew breakout area. Today's chart:

AREX had a crazy day on 2/8 and hit as high as $38. Since then it has tailed off and now is retesting the "scene of the crime", the breakout level just above $34.50. A successful touch and hold of the 20 MDA is supportive of this name going forward. That said, the stock has stalled out here.

WTS
Opened a position on 1/31/12. The set up here was a clear move out of a very tight basing channel. The accumulation volume had been excellent as well. $38.50 was key zone to clear. Today's chart:

After touching $40 this name has cooled off a bit. Volume has dried up on the downward move and buyers returned today. This one is still set up nicely for a move higher.

BANR
Opened a position 2/1/2012. To be fair this should have been stashed in my long term account. I have every indication that BANR will cross up and over $20 and run, just maybe not soon! May have been a little early here. Today's chart:

This one actually did close over $20 on 2/3 but since has fallen off. On the positive side the small gap from 1/25-1/26 has been closed and buyers returned today.

BCR
I worked on this one with a friend a while back but I missed the fireworks around 1/20-1/23. After that I was playing resolution of the bull flag as (opened position on 2/8/2012) seen in today's chart:

This one caught a price target upgrade the other day and thus a price and volume spike up. Right now it is facing serious price resistance at about $96. Above that and it's a "$100 Dolla Roll".

KFN
Opened a position on 2/8/2012. I had worked on this chart (and about 10 others) the night before and I just liked the action so I bought a spot. Today's chart:

The buyer accumulation has been outstanding for this name. The price has cleared the breakout level of $9. A bit of a pause here right now.

So all in all the 5 are not bad open positions nor in any real trouble. So what's the problem?

How many times did I use the words "pause", "resistance", "cooling off" in the selections above?

Even on market down days many names have been running well. Granted I tend to stay away from the hottest sectors (biotech, solars, chinese egg rolls) but many other things have been moving. The 5 above had real momentum coming into where I bought them, yet have slowed down.

So it could be benign reloading and the age old "resting, wants higher" sort of thing. Hopefully that is what it will turn out to be.

On the other hand there is another side to rotation of money, especially at the upper ranges of longer rallies. That means when things are moving they gather interest and steam, but as soon an it stops (resistance, news, etc) money moves along.

I think most understand rotation as it relates to sectors. Money leaves bonds say and goes to riskier assets. Buyers may walk away from the utility sector and instead chase semiconductors higher. That's well established.

What I am seeing some signs of (not absolutely, not definite) is buyer rotation from a binary choice: moving vs. non- moving.

There are some good examples in the names above and some others on screening names I have saved. Be aware and keep an eye on your positions. If they have been moving and see a pause, it's important they continue to keep moving. If they are supported by strong technicals and the momentum has been there, a walk away from buyers may mean you are holding a "non-moving" name and money will be rotating out. I may have a few in the above names myself.

Have a good night.