Thursday, January 31, 2008

Delusion and Illusion is All That is Left

Very cold here today. I guess it is going to be fairly warm next week, in the 40's, so I will try and hang on. Missed posting on FOMC Wednesday, but I went out with some friends from work instead of hashing over the latest FED slash and burn move. I am sure I was soooo missed.

Google Misses Earnings - What Does This Mean?
Everybody's favorite stock, Google (GOOG) was out tonight and missed their earnings forecast. I will not cover the details of the earnings report, it was as fake as any report that wall street puts out anyway. It amazes me that in this era of financial trickery with regard to earnings reports that nay company (banks and lenders not included) can ever miss a numbers projection. There are just too many ways to play "hide the salami" with respect to how the numbers get figured. Remember that saying "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure"? Sums it up perfectly.

I do not really care about Google as a stock or any other way, but I bring it up because I feel the need to point the readers here towards a piece that I think is pure mastery of the situation at hand. I feel that this piece holds many levels of both truth and insight that is sorely lacking in the world of economics. What is the piece? Ok, I will tell you! It was writtten this week by the great Kevin Depew of Minyanville. Kevin's daily "5 Things You Need to Know" articles are the finest missives on the net and are a MUST read for any economic junkie. The post from Januray 30th (yesterday) was so thought provoking that I spent most of the day yesterday, last night, and most of today thinking about it. You must read the article in full before proceeding to my main thought for this evening. Here it is:

Delusion and Illusion is All That is Left
Did you read the article? Good stuff, huh?
I know it is in poor taste, but my post tonight will borrow heavily from Kevin's original idea.

Monoline Insurance Companies Retain AAA Ratings
Companies like MBI and ABK provide insurance for a wide range of products. These entities are facing real problems right now as it has been shown beyond any reasonable doubt that they cannot in any way pay off their contracts if more than a miniscule amount of debt goes bad. Companies like these two have barely 100 Billion in cash, yet are on the hook for many times that amount. These are the facts.

Without going over all the well documented specifics regarding this business, just focus in on the fact that even though the facade of this insurance has been unmasked (it is indeed a known fictional arrangement) the AAA ratings are still retained. The ratings agencies are setting out baby criteria for the companies to stay afloat and keep the charade alive.

It is here that we see that the monoline insurance companies are now not a part of any real world finance vehicle. The argument for keeping the AAA ratings are rooted not in sound actuary criteria, but in the acceptance that the loss of the appeareance of insurance payouts is a systemic threat. We have arrived at a point in time where objectively fantasy belief replaces reality and itself becomes reality. The AAA rating is kept on the inurers, and therefore they ARE AAA rated agencies just like that. No need to ask questions, no need to ask how. To borrow a phrase from the film "The Matrix": " The Illusion Has Become real!"

You can see it in practice. When a rumor hits that the AAA rating will be downgraded, the stocks sell off like there is no end. Add a rumor of some kind of plan to keep the rating and the stocks fly to the moon. Whether the AAA rating is in fact realistic or not has no bearing, as long as the AAA rating is retained.

This process is in play across many facets of the financial world right now. All know the USA can never pay off it's debts. By pretending otherwise, the fantasy of repayment exists all by itself and becomes real. The USA is able to then sell boatloads of more debt all over the world. Again, the illusion has become real.

Home prices are disconnected from incomes many times over. There is no way possible to service the debt load for many households. Rental incomes cannot service the mortages. If credit can be made cheap enough however, some may be willing to try. The fantasy that home prices are of any real "value" becomes real.

I am sure you can think of many more, and I encourage you to leave your ideas in the comments section. I will post relevent ideas and give full credit to the authors.

I really think this idea that started with Kevin Depew could become a kind of unifying theorem to describe our financial markets. I have a poll question up tonight that asks about his article, so please vote. I am engrossed by this line of thinking and I hope you will like it as well.

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

You know all your readers and blog commenter's here missed you dearly!

Well the article you used as the starting point tonight was a little over my tiny brains fence line. After a few other forum reads I noticed something that does tie into your topic.

"If it sounds overly complicated then it probably is."

1. Plain and simple we went too far, too fast, for too long and spent too much.
2. The longer any "FREE MARKET" correction is prevented from occurring then then see number #3.
3. When the show ends (or FED/$ sings) then it will all be over.


Plain and simple guys I have been watching this stuff happen over the last 5 years right before my eyes. I am sitting right in the middle of the worst place in Central FL. The more conspiracy sites (theories) have been coming true and have been appearing in places like this. Not that your site is a conspiracy site but what we talk about here would have seemed NUCKING FUTZ about 5 years ago.

Keep up the good work and I am going to let you slide tonight just don't miss another weekday posting..



getyourselfconnected said...

Thanks G!
This is not a conspiracy site like you said, but I really do feel that we may, repaet may, be at a juntion in history where the fantasy land of debt, credit, and speculation may have seen its best days go by. It bears watching thats for sure. Thanks for stopping in. Bye the way, how goes the job search? I hope all is well with you and yours.

Anonymous said...

On Goggle, I don't use those clowns after they turned in search information over to the government. I use No tracking back to you and it work great.

I'll have to ponder on that article, it seems reasonable enough for some kind of an analogy of what has gone on.


Russ DoGG said...

I wanted to ask a mortgage question about he opportunities to buy at distressed prices. Idesa rehashed from the CBS news special house of cards…

I was fascinated by seeing recent talk by "calculated risk" (is it a "bubble blog"?) of the game contemplated by people walking away from mortgages. Musical houses may be next?

That’s where you walk away from one overpriced house at nearly the same time as you buy a foreclosed (or REO) property nearby for a lot less. Then your neighbor can move into your house doing the same thing, and so on …

When the music stops playing everyone who actually wants to live there has moved a short distance into a probably comparable house at a fraction of their former house price / payment.

In the past apparently opportunities arose to do this in ‘mill towns’ or ‘company towns’ when a major negative employment event occurred causing housing prices & demand to drop. and occur they did! Within the span of a few years everyone shuffled into similar houses at a fraction of hte previous price.

If you have a job, plan on staying, and are not generally dependent on credit scores to finance cars, etc. then it may be worth the potentially enormous savings if you have a large non-recourse mortgage. I guess you have to purchase the second home (at like 50% off) with a good down payment (cash) prior to walking from the first. I don’t know how this can be pulled off (the details) but it has happened so i'm told. Like a game of musical chairs.

Anybody know if there will be opportunity for home-debtors to do this again in steeply-depressed priced markets in CA or FL today? Assume I have excellent credit! That could really pissoff the bankers.

sherlock said...

You wrote "Whether the AAA rating is in fact realistic or not has no bearing, as long as the AAA rating is retained."

Everyone knows its all a game at this point. As long as the govt keeps stepping in to prop up the fantasy, thats the signal that the game shall ontinue, for now at least. If it becomes apparent that the govt is exhausted, or if the Dems get elected and try to restore some sense of reality, then its over. The only way reality can re-assert is a crash. But at this point the whole economy is so upside-down and underwater, possibly even the world's economy, that a crash would be like a nuclear holocaust.

watchtower said...

Hmmmm, I read the article, I`ll have to think about it.

I had a person point out to me one time that the nation's morals (in a biblical sense I guess) in the 1920's were eroding, and then we went into a great depression. I think you can see were I'm going with this, whether you are for, or against "religious" morals, they do seem to keep some "checks and balances" on the shenanigans we are seeing (it's hard to imagine this kinda stuff going on in the 1950's, if I'm wrong, please correct me).
Maybe you don't agree with me, but we do seem to be in a state of moral decay that would make the roaring 20's look tame by todays standard (or maybe having a daughter has changed me some).

@Getyourselfconnected, if this is too far off topic, please delete.

Anonymous said...

Jean Baudrillard wrote those lines during the 1987 Crash.


Great Post!


Anonymous said...

I first read this article when I was an architecture student. I understand how it refers to art. Art may never have a value placed on it that is not subjective and therefore the meaning and value are in constant flux. With financials this can not be anything more than a temporary phenomenon as when the pink slips start flying it breaks the romance we may have with other possible interpretations. Thus the dot com era ended, and thus the era of the monolines will end too. Maybe we should all buy art. It never goes to zero.

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