Views on Things
Maybe my last post was spot on with timing. The jobs number today was a mess, and I think it says reams about how things are that the headlines about 5 minutes after the release were that this report was an "outlier" or "not true, sure to revised way higher". Of course we have had two years of strange job loss numbers but those were all just outliers as well. The trend will change at some point, may as well price it in 12 months in advance, right? Exactly.
With the economy roaring as hard as the 2007 highs (well not quite) the stock market thinks it's time to get parabolic. Why not indeed. Even this Sunday on the show "60 Minutes" Boom Boom Bernanke will make it clear the spice, I mean the liquidity will flow! Here is the relevant headline:
Bernanke Tells Nation This Sunday: More QE Coming
Because I am blinded by my bearishness and refuse to see the stellar data in front of me I would ask why we need any more QE if the recovery is pouring forth like a tsunami of prosperity? I could ask, but I am an idiot after all. The plan has been clear for a while now, but as another reminder, here is Sir Alan Greenspan in case any hotshot stock pickers need a reminder that a rising tide makes everyone look brilliant:
Addressing a gamut of issues, from the European debt crisis to the floundering US housing industry, the former central bank chief said the rising stock market—up more than 80 percent from its March 2009 financial crisis lows—has been pivotal.Got it?
“There’s a real upward momentum here,” he said. “I think we are underestimating and continuing to underestimate how important asset prices, very specifically equity prices, are not only to shareholders but the economy as a whole.”
The point is important in that it as at the center of current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s efforts. The Fed has dramatically expanded its balance sheet in hopes that more liquidity in the economy will help drive up the prices of riskier assets, particularly stocks.
Such movement helps create psychological momentum that in turns lifts everything else, advocates of the policy say.
Now how many shares of AAPL or AMZN the long term unemployed have or how much is left of many 401k's after all this time probably is not important, someone is making out. As Gordon Gekko said in "Wall Street" though, stock trading is a zero sum game; for all the multigenerational winners of the last big run somebody has to lose. Care to take a guess who that is? Go on, try it.
As always, Ilargi of The Automatic Earth tends to say what I want to better than I do, so I will add this quote to last night's post on how I see things:
As uncertainty has increased, there has been more and more emphasis on gaming the system in order to wring a quick profit out of it and less and less emphasis on productive investment, as productive investments have too long a time horizon to deliver gains in a world proceeding at a frenetic pace. This has been going on for years, and has led to our current milieu of casino capitalism, or ponzi finance.Nice.
This system of money chasing its own tail in ever tighter circles is clearly unstable, and I would argue is about to self-destruct under the increasing pressure of its own internal contradictions and the catabolic (self-consuming) process taken past real limits. As it does so, the pace of change will becomes even more rapid for a period of time, and coupled to that will be increasing hardship for a critical mass of people.
Friday Night Entertainment
Some lighter stuff to get you ready for the weekend. Monday Night Football cannot come soon enough.
Because seeing is so much easier.
Well, it is Friday:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
I know you all feel this way.
We do need social security reform because all those oldies have had plenty of time to buy and hold enough stocks to make them rich a few times over, yes?:
see more funny videos
Some items worth a ponder.
-What is the purpose of the X-37B and why was it in orbit for 7 months?
-How unimaginable is 6,000,000 megatons of TNT (600 times the world's nuclear arsenal) which was the power of the punch comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 delivered to the planet Jupiter in 1994? Wow.
-The master puzzle Kryptos is still unsolved, so maybe section 4 was made wrong?
-The Anasazi of very early America had awesome houses, how did they do it?:
A few tunes for the weekend.
A couple of oldies that I have always loved.
The Everly Brothers and "All I Have to do is Dream":
Look I know the Beatles (LMAO) and Elvis are the true kings of rock and roll, or so the story goes. So what about Bo Diddley? Oh, you don't know? Well try this out:
Yeah, that's good.
No I have not been lying that I am 34, just like old stuff too! One more that I have had one before, Sha Na Na and "Those Magic Changes":
Just like that one!
Ok, I will get somewhat modern!
Let's get a little nasty with Rage Against the Machine and "Guerrilla Radio" LIVE on the Letterman show:
If you want to laugh your ass off at a funny cover, here is Alanis Morissette trying and failing BIG TIME! Just stop.
Maybe a top 10 song for me is Black Sabbath's melodic, dark, and moody "Planet Caravan":
Ok, I am not religious at all (though I love religion tales and stories!) so I am submitting the kick ass tune "Calling on You" by the 80's band Stryper because it rocks:
Evanescence closes the show with "Breathe No More", and a sad tune it is:
Have a good night.