Thursday, December 16, 2010

Checking In Near Years End

Hello out there! The cold has really moved in here in New England. Luckily I have tomorrow at work, then Monday and Tuesday and then I am off until 2011. I need the time off that is for sure.

I hope all is well for the regular readers and occasional stoppers by. I wanted everyone to know I am fine I just have not been really thinking about things financial for a bit. When i do it seems things remain the same anyway! I am getting pretty excited for the NFL playoff season and the New England Patriots are really doing well. Who knows what can happen this year in the playoffs? It should be wild.

With the time off I will probably write a bit more. At this point I think I am moving away from trying to change things (that worked!) and just going with what is. 3 full years is a long time to hope for change, it ain't happening. As such, my sarcastic biting wit will remain, along with my endless complaints on things government intervention and banking. I think more science, movies, and tid bits will find their way in. I will also share any trades I make as I see plenty of ways to do some damage using my tested system of "using the script" provided by "the things that have to happen". Investing for dummies as it is.

On a macro level, here are the things I am thinking that will come into play. Will they in 2011? 2015? I don't know but they are what they are. Without too much writing about them, here are some central tenets of how I see things after 3 years of on the fly education in finance:

-The Notional Issue is a huge one. What is money, derivatives, options, central bank asset swaps, leverage, and debt guarantees? Heck if I know, but many want to know now. Whether we are talking notional bets on gold which dwarf the actual metal (all hedged of course so no worries!) or just something as simple as all banks being insolvent in 1 nanosecond with mark to market accounting in place this perpetual machine of credit/debt/promises has been shown as hollow as those Palmer fake chocolate figures (chocolate flavored chocolate, gotta love it!) I love so much. In case you had no idea, here is no perpetual motion machine. I feel this is the single biggest issue facing things economic. The Notional, as I have coined it, serves only those that benefit from it. Let's face it, a monster share of all trading that is done is of limited to zero value to anything except those making the trades. They serve no function other than to generate churn and small slivers (chop marks?) of return.

-The Script is another big one. I know bond yields are rising and this means either the economy is about to rocket off past Voyager 1 at light speed or the dollar is about to lose all it's value (notional?) but don't get excited and pass out just yet. A home mortgage at 6% or 7%? Good joke, but no worries. Welcome to QE just add numbers. This of course feeds back into The Notional. Can the FED swap out enough stuff with banks so yields stay low and banks finally deploy the goods (unlimited credit)? Who knows, but that is the script. Either way, it will be more than interesting to watch.

-The Big Lie will also come into play in between the two ideas above. Right now the ECB is peeing their pants in a dark suit over the idea that senior bond holders may have to take a hair cut (just a bit off the top please!). The Big Lie is that this will make raising money impossible in the debt markets. It will, for about 5 minutes. After a restructure and a more believable plan (I did not say really possible, but more believable!) money will rush in to fund a new "hot sector". This was always possible here as well and all the "credit markets would have frozen and the world would have ended" dumb asses would have been right...for about 24 hours. What if debt holders lost big? They would DOUBLE DOWN on the next play! What is so hard to understand here? Banking is older than prostitution for a reason, it makes money when done even kind of right. You have to really mess it up to lose.

I have to say to do miss writing here most nights. Maybe there will be a Friday Night post? Who can say. Until then, sound off and try not to savage me like poor Kid Dynamite got attacked after a few contentious articles! I wanted to make a Youtube video asking "LEAVE KID ALONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" after all the drama but I know he is good to go.

Have a good night.


GawainsGhost said...

I'm glad you're doing well, but I have an idea of what you're going through. These last couple of months have been insane for me. Truck troubles, computer problems, work concerns, it's just been one thing after another. And my Dallas Cowboys suck. So let's just say it's been difficult.

By the way, I'm wondering why you never play George Thoroughgood and the Deleware Destroyers on Friday Night videos. He's one hell of a guitar player. Strange how these northerners, or even guys in England, can play southern rhythm and blues so well.

CT-Hilltopper said...

You know all about my problems. LOL

I just ordered some Dark Chocolate Brandy Liqours to chase away my pain.

I think you're just at the same place I am about the economy, Get. We've written about it; pontificiated about it; offered up ways to make it better; beaten ourselves over the head about it; and finally, in the end, we've accepted it for what it is.

We aren't going to win this one, Get. We may be able to hedge out bets in the market in small ways in get in and get out plays to make some money off the death of our currency and the death of our nation, but in the end, we're done.

That's nothing to write about on a day to day basis. It's depressing. Watching day after day coverage of congressmen abd senators wrangling through a bill of pork-laden crap that just lets them live to fight another day so they can fight over another bill of pork laden crap that we as a nation can't afford...and we, the people sent them there.

We're dying by degrees every day, hanging on by our fingernails.

That's the state of our nation and our economy, Get. I don't want to write about it either.

EconomicDisconnect said...

I have played George quite a few times I think. Kaybe you can be an honorary Patriots fan this year?

Thanks for the comment, I know what you mean! All my best.

GawainsGhost said...

Well, I will always be a fan of only one team, the Dallas Cowboys. It's just the way I was raised and where I grew up. I live twenty miles from where Tom Landry was born. There's a museum, a mural, a street, and a stadium dedicated to him. This man was as a god.

People can talk about it, people can laugh about it, but the simple fact remains that Tom Landry fundamentally changed the game of football. Forget the 4-3, the inside/outside flex, the multiple offense, the deep speed threat, the shotgun, situational substitution. All the other innovations he made that make football what it is today. It's all about game film, and keys and reads.

When you really think about it, nothing changed the game of football more than keys and reads. That came from Tom Landry.

His fist start in the NFL was as a defensive back for a now extinct expansion frachise in New York, called the Yankees. It was against Otto Graham and the Cleveland Browns. This guy is the winningest quarterback in history. When he retired after ten years, his record was 112-8. He went undefeated for years at a time, led the Browns to 7 championships. He brutalized Landry that first game, set league records against him. Landry said it was the most embarrassing atheletic performance of his life.

That's what led to his obsession with game film. And that led him to conceive of the idea of keys and reads, which alone fundamentally changed the game of football. It went from a field fight to a chess match solely because of keys and reads.

I don't know if you watched the NFL Films "The Man In The Hat." But here's the link.

Tom Landry defined football; he changed football. I found it interesting that NFL Films had Bill Belichick explain the Flex defense.

Right. No one else could teach it. Nolan tried in San Francisco, but he gave up after two years.

There never will be another coach like Tom Landry. The man changed the game, unlike anyone else.

The Cowboys suck today, because of Jerry Jones. And that's too bad from my standpoint.

But, hey, at least the New England Patriots are winning. If only because their coach was a defensive coordinator against Landry.

I expect the Patriots will be in the Super Bowl this year, against the Saints.

That will be a dilemma for you, won't it, GYSC?

EconomicDisconnect said...

Thanks for the football histroy, I really had no idea Landry had paved the way in so many things!

If it is the Saints vs Pats I a 100% with the Pats! Somehow I see a Pats vs Giants rematch in my mind, tell me I am crazy!

GawainsGhost said...

You're crazy.

CT-Hilltopper said...

The Cowboys were America's team for a loooooooooooong time. There are still people here in New england who just love The Cowboys.

Landry was Gold as far as football was concerned. The teams he molded and held together were classic teams, and they played as teams, and they actually had respect for their coach. It was a miracle.

Jake said...

Enjoy the Pats this year. They are looking unbeatable (hoping this is a jinx).

EconomicDisconnect said...

Hey Jake,
Thanks so much, I know you really mean it!