Friday, January 15, 2016

Panic on Friday Night? I Think Not!

Hello all!

Hoping 2016 is going well for the long time readers. And well for all. 2015 sucked royal, and I am glad to see it go. I got my dream job, but on almost the same day my Mother in Law (who has lived with us for 8 years) was diagnosed with terminal kidney cancer. This was last June. Things went spectacularly bad fast and I wish there was some way to console my wife. Mother in Law passed away in November. Things are still not that "normal" around here. Maybe they will never be.

Still, you have to keep going. So we do. I do.

Panic? Already?
I cut my teeth in the professional world in 1998. In finance during the cauldron of 2000. I have seen some stuff over the years, I am sure you have to. I don't follow the markets all that close anymore, but it's cracking me up how in a panic everyone is over this "correction" that may well wind up being another blip with a V-shaped recovery in like 3 days as it's been for a long time. If you traded and survived the summer of 2011, this is baby wipes. What a bunch of pussies the Wall Street type are, geezus.

I mean, look at this:

Where are the old school Minyanville writer when you need them most? A guy like "Mr. Practical", Kevin Depew, and Todd Harrison would do magic on this kind of thing. Sadly they moved on. I can't speak for them but I quit this stuff around the same time too. Coincidence? Smart, rooted, and thoughtful people have no place in this market.

Random Thoughts
- so... a 0.125-0.25% raise in a zero rate world has caused all this market mess? OK.
- the FED knows all when it's helping, but nothing if anything goes wrong. Got it.
- Todd Harrison wrote long ago that the Internet is THE most deflationary invention of all time. I agree 100%. I cannot understand why nobody else seems to be able to grasp what this means for the big picture. I don't get it.
- I asked in maybe one of my first 4 blog posts that IF the 1999 spending bonanza crazy times was the US economy at 2X what it could do, and 1X was normal, why is the FED always trying to get back to 2X? Nobody in a decade has tried a response. Not even Cullen Roche. Certainly not Conor Sen. The answer to this question is really important.
- My beloved Patriots are going to lose tomorrow to a healthier, better team at this point. I am ok with that for some reason I don't understand.

Look it's not my job or hobby any more to try and enlighten you all. Enlightenment comes from within or some shit like that. Allow me to say something about US auto sales and specifically the so called "average car age" stat:

There is NO WAY the average age of US autos is 11 years. For the life of me I could not find out how this is even calculated. I am going to guess that old beaters (any left after cash for clunkers???) get re-registered by the real low end of our society. Instead of viewed as a poor indicator (wow the lower income bracket cannot make way into another bracket and hold on to old cars) it's looked at like pent up demand. Look around you, how many 11 year old cars you see on the road? In your company parking lot or garage?

This stat is FAKE.

Add in the wild channel stuffing (hat tip to the ZeroHedge folks, they are right more than wrong) and crazy loan terms (I bought my Camaro for cash, but they offered me a 72 month payment plan? Asked my wife is she would co-sign for car? My wife was like "He will just pay cash, thanks") car sales are high. It's fake.

Lot of fake out there, but the game will go on. You know it will.

If you want a basic on where we are, Kevin Depew's seminal essay is the best thing I have ever read:
The Crisis of the Real by Kevin Depew

Panic on Friday Night? I Think Not!
We don't panic, we rock and roll on Friday night!

For the Wall Street folks who might be down 10%, "Somebody Save Me" by Cinderella. Live in Philly 1991:

Instead of watching "Queen Bee" gyrating on stage like she has a muscle twitch disease and pretending she is all that, watch a real performer doing her thing. Pat Benatar live with "Shadows of the Night":

I am turning 40 this year, so maybe it's that, but when I really got what Don Henley's "Boys of Summer" was about, I cry every time I hear it. Hint; it's not about a girl:

Sad but pretty.

On a lighter note, Men at Work and "Land Down Under":

Close the show!

Tito Y Tarantula and "After Dark":

Have a good night.


Smylee Smith said...

Missed your awesome mind. T

GawainsGhost said...

Hey, GYC, glad to have you back. You were missed. My deepest condolences to your wife and family for your loss. These events are difficult to deal with, and life will never be the same. I learned that when I lost my father to cancer. But with faith and perseverance you'll be fine.
As far as car sales go, you really need to read the Millionaire Next Door, by Stanley and Danko. There's this great story in one chapter about this guy who was a car salesman. I can't remember his name, would have to look it up, but this guy worked at a dealership and a customer came in who had totaled his car. The insurance paid for a replacement of course, but the dealership was stuck with a totaled car they couldn't sell. So this guy sold it to a junk yard for $500. A couple of months later, another customer came in with the same model and make that had damage to a side door. So this guy went to the junk yard and asked, how much for a door? The junk yard dealer said, "$500."
Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Bells went off in this guy's head. I'm paying this junk yard dealer for a door what he paid me for the entire car. He's breaking even on one part, and he's still got the rest of the parts to sell. It's pure profit after that. Well, he bought the door, then quit selling cars and started his own company dealing in used parts for semi-trucks. It's a simple business plan. You buy old semi-trucks cheap and then sell the parts at a profit. This guy was a multi-millionaire within ten years.
That's what I'm talking about. I still have my old 93 Ford Ranger. It has 300,000 miles on it. The alternator gave out a couple of months ago, so it's been sitting in the parking lot for a while. I took it off my insurance, since I can't drive it until it's repaired. The other week this guy came up and asked if it was for sale. "I'll give you $1000." Are you kidding me? The tires, the brakes and the transmission alone are worth tree times that. The engine parts, the doors, sides, hood, grill guard, and tail gate, the windows, not to mention the A/C and stereo are worth ten times that. I could tow this truck to a body shop, have them hack it up and sell the parts for a lot more than you're offering. And who's to say you won't do the same? But it cheap and sell the parts for profit. The difference between you and me is that I've already paid for it, and all the parts are pure profit, minus expenses, to me. Get lost.
Don't ever sell yourself short. In business, real estate, cars, and everything else, it's not what the whole will sell for at any given time; it's what the parts are worth, which normally is a lot more. This is what venture capitalists understand, and others do not. It's all about return on investment. Buy the whole, then sell the parts. Think about it.
By the way, congratulations on your Patriots.

David Batista said...

Good to see you back! So sorry to hear about your MIL, though. My condolences to you and your wife, man. That's tough.

Glad to see you seem to be doing well, otherwise.

And, hey -- I missed your music video collage! :)

Anonymous said...

Sorry to hear about your MIL.

As to the markets, whether it be print or video media, the all important advertising dollars drive the bus. In advertising, its all about eyeballs - thus its always about the market TANKING, or something SOARING or something else SCREACHING - CANNIBAL ANARCHY!!!!

Funny thing is, the producers know it too. The guys at CNBC know full well their screaming and hysterics is all about ratings and eyeballs, which is a shame because the few times in our lives when screaming and histerics is warranted (i.e. 2008) the people who are doing it have lost all credibility (i.e. zero hedge).

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Anonymous said...


It's been a while and I thought it would be a good time to check in and say hello. The snake is in full coil and will strike soon with pending election. Sorry to hear about your loss and keep your chin up, powder dry and shelves stocked. Take care of yourself, family and friends when able, because they will be there to take care of you when TSHTF.

Soon to be Commander G

PS: Don't tread on me.

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GawainsGhost said...

Hey, GYC, long time, no see. Hope you're doing well.
I don't know how often you check your blog comments, but the next time you post a Friday Night video, have I found one for you. This is probably the greatest collection of musicians ever assembled together on the planet for one song.

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