Friday, January 22, 2010

Mortgage Debt Still the Main Show

Another wild day out there!

That had to be first 3 day losing streak for the new bull market in some time. I will have more to say about this below, but it was almost surreal to see indices move down after almost a year of vertical moonshot.

Plenty of topics tonight and of course some fun stuff (hardly any requests?!).

Fly the Empty Skies
I came across this article via Some Assembly Required and I thought the story had to be a misprint:
2009 airline revenue: Worst drop ever
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The airline industry suffered its largest drop ever in passenger revenue last year as a weak economy grounded many would-be travelers, an industry group said Wednesday.

The Air Transport Association of America said total passenger revenue for the major U.S. carriers fell 18% in 2009 versus the year before. It was the largest drop on record, exceeding the 14% decline in 2001.
The current drop off is worse than after 9/11? Granted the terrorist attacks were in September (near years end) but that is a shocking contraction year over year. Another sign of the V shaped recovery no doubt.

Ben Bernanke Confirmation: Understand What it Will Mean
There are now some serious doubts about whether Ben Bernanke will be confirmed as FED head by the end of the month. I of course think he should not be and that case has been layed out in depth by many already. I wanted to talk about what this will result in ahead of time so people are not shocked when it happens.

-Get ready for the Mother Of All Temper Tantrums (MOATT) by Wall Street. This could be a downside 10% move in 2 or 3 days time in a fit of rage. It will be blamed on "uncertainty" or whatever but you will know what it is.
-Who replaces Bernanke is important, but likely to be another academic easy money type. The difference here is the nominee will be under enormous pressure to do things different.

If I am betting I think he scrapes in by the thinnest of margins.

Market Action
Returning to the market move down I want to point out the painfully obvious because it exposes the truth about the markets:

-It is only easy money and never ending backstops that have generated the entire move up in stocks and the entire improvement in economic data.

This should settle that debate. The exit button cannot be hit fast enough after the mere hint that things may change in the slightest.

Mortgage Debt Still the Main Show
It all comes back to housing debt, and it will until something is done about it. I wrote about my support for the proposals of the President on banking reforms and i think that is a good start. The central threat the banks, and thus the taxpayers, remains mortgage debt.

HAMP has been a failure (for the 3rd o 4th time?) and now we are getting to the real show. From today's New York Times:
Treasury Weighs Fixes to Foreclosures Program
Key Snippet:
The changes by the Treasury Department are expected to include greater assistance for homeowners no longer able to make mortgage payments because their paychecks have shrunk, said banking industry representatives privy to the department’s deliberations who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of alienating government officials.

The Treasury was still debating the method, these banking representatives said, looking at either direct cash assistance or a grace period in which borrowers could postpone payments. That component may not be announced next week, but would follow soon after.
At least the games are being trimmed off, direct cash handouts to mortgage deadbeats. Unreal.

As you may know, because of my special Force powers I am able to Flow-Walk at times and see the future. On October 29th, 2009 I shared my vision of the future with the readers and offered this:
The future distortion that I see is folding FNM/FRE/FHA and the MBS assets of the FED into a "bad bank". New purchases will be funded by the newly created Federal Office of Mortgage Issuance with a 4% rate for all. This will be funded on the bond market with shortfalls made up with taxpayer money. Do not worry, this program will be short term with an exit strategy planned for 5 years before our Sun goes Red Giant.
The FOMI. That is what I saw.

Today while checking out the new and improved Housing Doom site I came across this revealing tidbit from a Bloomberg story:
"A Whole New System of Housing Finance"
Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — Representative Barney Frank said his committee will push to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, seized by regulators almost 17 months ago, with a different model for U.S. mortgage financing.

“The committee will be recommending abolishing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form and coming up with a whole new system of housing finance,” Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing in Washington today. “That’s the approach, rather than a piecemeal one.”

Housing Doom writer Twist offers:
There have been many of us who have speculated as to what the housing market would look like after government intervention ends. Clearly "recovery" and "stabilization" in the market at the moment is the result of massive government intervention, the government being nearly the only game in town for housing finance.
If Frank and Co. are considering a "whole new system of housing finance" replacing Fannie and Freddie, we can assume that the plan is for intervention to be a permanent thing.
Will this prevent housing prices from falling? My guess is, no. Unemployment, a large shadow inventory and a jumbo market that will continue in freefall will continue to put downward pressure on prices. Home prices for homes under the conforming limit may see short-term gains in some areas, but in general are liable to languish at best.

There are those that claim that this is necessary because of the failure of the free market. I disagree. The free market was never given- and isn't likely to be given, a chance.
Good stuff.

Remember, I named the FOMI before anyone else!

Friday Night Entertainment
That was plenty of heavy lifting, now for some cutting loose. Foot loose. Kick off the Sunday shoes.

Sketch Cartoon
The following XKCD comic may only be funny if you have seen both "Dirty Harry" and "Rain Man":

Instant Classic!

It's Hammer Time!
This clock is for the ultimate geek:

Full Description at Geekologie.

Film Clips
Maybe inspiring a rental some where out there.

My favorite Bill Murray film is "Lost in Translation" which is a special film. One of my favorite comedies that Bill Murray starred in was "Quick Change". Not too many people have seen this one and it is worth a look:

"Quit looking at me!"

While not a film, my local Channel 7 News weather man Pete Bouchard thought it was a good time to share some very personal information about himself with the TV audience that left me thinking that it had to be a movie (MUST SEE!!!!!!!!):

Maybe he needs this book.

Rock Blogging
A little rock and roll because:
I've got a dream when the darkness is over
We'll be lyin' in the rays of the sun
But it's only a dream and tonight is for real
You'll never know what it means
But you'll know how it feels

Loyal requester Anon wanted Roy Orbison and "Only the Lonely" and who am I to say no?:


The Golden Truth had a Cypress Hill tune posted tonight and I actually like that rap band, go figure. Try out "Insane in the Membrane" for some wicked pissa base(Skip if a sensitive sort!):

Nasty!

What could be better than Lita Ford AND Ozzy together for "Close My Eyes Forever"?:

Wonderful.

Last week I featured what could be thought of as a "Ladies Anthem" as a SonicNinjaKitty grew up with "The Warrior". Tonight it's the boys turn and what better than Motley Crue and "Girls, Girls, Girls"! This video is the only one I could embed, so the visuals are pure coincidence, honest:

Moving along.....

Last call!!! Are you ready? Are you really? Ok.

Closing the show with a song that may well fit the mood right now. Enjoy the Scorpions and "Winds of Change" and how we have turned a corner on this financial system:

Sweet.

Added:
My friend C-T knew the lyrics from one of my favorite films, so here is "Tonight is What it Means to be Young":

Crazy wonderful.

Have a good night.

63 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains,
I just posted and missed your comment on the last thread.

Of course books are good to go, I feature excerpts all the time. I will check your read out, looks like my kind of thing.

Anything goes here you know!

sonicninjakitty said...

If stocks go down, it will only be because the curtain is pulled back. Sunshine is a good thing! I hope everyone is mostly in cash :0

BTW--I didn't exactly 'grow up' with that song--I WAS grown. Oh heck, I'm 44 now, which ain't exactly a secret for any reason. I guess that puts me more in the category of 'cougar' instead of 'kitty'--but you know, cougars are WAY more dangerous!!!! ;)

GawainsGhost said...

Well, I highly recommend Imbibe! My sister gave it to me for Christmas. I thought, why would she send me this book? Then I read it. Absolutely fascinating.

It tells the story of Jerry Thomas, who wrote the world's first bartender's guide in 1862 and was the most famous mixologist in America. And it's got recipes, over 100.

Of course, back in the day, before Prohibition, liquor was 116 proof. That's some powerful stuff. And you won't believe some of the concoctions people drank back then.

I mean, what do you think of when you think of punch? I think of Hawaian Punch and Everclear. Not these guys. No, it's like lemons, oranges, pineapples, all muddled together, then a bottle of champagne, a bottle of rum, a bottle of grenadine in a big bowl with a chunk of ice.

That was the most popular drink in America in the early 1800s, before the cocktail was invented. Then things get really weird.

I'd like to try some of the recipes, but most of the ingredients are hard to come by and very expensive. Wondrich does provide reasonable alternatives to make most of the drinks though. Close enough for love I guess.

It's one of the most interesting books I've read in years. As to the other one, Exiles, well, that's just one of my things. Curse of having an MA in literature, you know.

getyourselfconnected said...

Sonic,
44 is prime time! For some reason women get more nuanced and sexy as they age while us guys just gain weight and talk about the old days! I meant no insult on that line song reference BTW.

Gawains,
any book titled "Imbibe" is going to be bought this weekend! Thanks for the tip!

What are your picks for Sunday? I am with Saints and Colts, though I hate the Colts.

getyourselfconnected said...

Wow nobody saw the lyrics on the intro for a guess?

sonicninjakitty said...

OK, now you are my new all time favorite blogger. (ROFL!!)

CT-Hilltopper said...

Yes...Tonight is what it means to be young. Something like that.

Jim Steinman

Sweet.

getyourselfconnected said...

C-T,
My fair maiden, you do know this song!!!!!

Addendum coming to the post!

TomOfTheNorth said...

Thanks for the tunes GYSC!

Just the thing ffor after a rugged day in TheNorth!

GawainsGhost said...

Well, I'll take the Jets and the Saints. I just have a feeling that Indianapolis is ripe for a fall and Minnesota peaked last week. I'd like to see the Saints win it all. It would be good for the game, good for the league, and good for New Orleans and their long suffering fans. In fact, I'd like to see every NFL team win at least one Super Bowl. Except for Philadelphia and Minnesota. I don't mind if they make it to the big game, but I want them to lose every time.

watchtower said...

Gawain
The 'Imbibe' book sounds interesting, reminds me of a History channel (I think it was the history channel) program that dealt with a drink known as 'Absinthe'.

http://tinyurl.com/8hdj7

Even though I only occasionally drink beer I will have to check that book out, who knows I might have to take up a new hobby : )

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, Watchtower, it's very interesting. I asked my sister how she had ever heard of it and what motivated her to send it to me. She said she saw David Wondrich on some tv show, and he was mixing all these classic cocktails. So she went to the library and checked out his book, read it and thought I might enjoy it. She was right.

It's the untold history of America, because there really is nothing more American than a well made drink.

Back in the early 1800s, punches were all the rage. Then in the 1830s, ice came on the scene and cocktails were invented. Famous bars in places like New York, New Orleans, Chicago, and San Francisco were the sites of much experimentation, with "mixologists" crafting all kinds of flavorful combinations. New drinks were being invented left and right, then spreading all over the world as European and Australian tourists came to the states and were amazed by this decidedly American phenomenon.

And I got to tell you, these guys were drinking all the time! Morning, noon and night. Good grief, it's a wonder they all didn't die of liver failure. There are some really potent drinks in this book.

Wondrich is a very good writer, and his research is assiduous to say the least. The histories behind the Mint Julep and the Martini are particularly fascinating.

getyourselfconnected said...

Tom,
I think I figured out the Disqus issue I was having trying to leave a comment on your blog. Glad you had a good time for Friday Night!

Gawains,
I am starting to get really anxious and nervous about the Saints game and it is only Saturday! This is a huge game for the franchise and terribly important for the fans and the team. It is going to be a monster struggle!

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GawainsGhost said...

Well, I wouldn't worry too much about the Vikings. Yeah, they have a good defense and offense, but realistically I think they peaked last week. It's just something about playing the Cowboys in the playoffs at home. Minnesota was motivated to right perceived past wrongs, like the Hail Mary pass. But they have no such motivation on the road against the Saints.

Dallas was in that game until the end of the third quarter. But the offense couldn't get anything going. I don't expect New Orleans to have that problem.

The thing is this. The Saints aren't playing for themselves. They're playing for their city and their long-suffering fans. That's powerful. The Vikings are playing for . . . Brett Favre? I don't think so.

getyourselfconnected said...

"The Vikings are playing for . . . Brett Favre? I don't think so."

Gawains,
Sean Payton is a sharp gy and I am sure the game plan will be to get Favre to throw maybe even by playing man on man defenses. Once he gets that "I am going to throw all day" look then they will spring Sharper in the secondary to roam. Did you see Favre after the last TD pass last week? He had is hands up in the air for like 7 minutes saying "look at me". I really want to win that game!

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, I can't stand him either. Or any other player who wants to make it all about him, like Deion Sanders for example.

Football is the ultimate team sport, and there's no place on the field for prima donnas.

But Minnesota is a solid squad. They do have a very good defense and a powerful offense. And they certainly outmatched, outcoached and outplayed the Cowboys last week. I should have seen that coming, but I drank the Kool-Aid. Now I'm back to whiskey, which opens your eyes to reality.

In that game against the Saints some weeks ago, the Cowboys were in a must win mode. Certainly, the Saints wanted to win, but they didn't need to, and that was the difference.

Against the Vikings last week, the Cowboys were also in a must win mode, but were hopelessly outschemed. I think it was more important for the Vikings to win at home than for the Cowboys to win on the road, and so it went. Either that or Dallas just wasn't that good to begin with, which is where I'm sadly leaning.

The thing about the game this weekend to me is that the Saints have more to play for than the Vikings. And New Orleans has game film to study on Minnesota, whereas Dallas did not.

I think it will be a close, hard-fought game, but in the end I believe the Saints will prevail. And I'll be happy to see it.

As to the Colts-Jets game, I just have a feeling that Indianapolis will regret letting New York into the tournament. Don't know why, just do.

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains,
agree 100% that the Colts will regret pulling the starters. I think either they win a brutal, physical game that hurts them or they lose outright. The Jets are built for playoff football and they are goign to be hitting like there is no tomorrow. I am wishing thm well which is hard for any Pats fan!

The Saints are playing for so much as the favorite sons of the still recovering New Orleans. I think this is going to be a tough game, but Darren Sharper makes the difference late.

Getting excited!

Anonymous said...

nice post. thanks.

DIYer said...

So, ahh, gyc... where do I go to sign up for that telomere stretch? Just thought you might know.
:-)

getyourselfconnected said...

DIYer,
Telomere extension as the key to longevity is a hot research area. Enhanced enzymes called, of course, telomerases could provide a way to stop cellular senescence. Still serious roadblocks exist like even if you can extend the ends of chromosomes, errors will accumulate over time so you would still die (various cancers).

Elixir Pharmaceuticals does work in this area.

DIYer said...

Interesting -- thanks for the reply.

Back around 1998 (+-2 yrs), I attended a Friday lecture at the MBL. The lecturer was a female with a Dutch surname I can't remember right now, with a report on telomere research. It was very interesting, and popular with the geezer population of WH. When we read the credits on the flyer, we noted that the research was being funded by the Lawrence Ellison foundation.

We got home and looked up Larry Ellison, and asked "Does that look like the kinda guy who'd put shoe polish in his beard?". Answer: yep.

Loans for Mortgages said...

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