Friday, January 29, 2010

An Answer, Linkage, and Entertainment

This past week seemed to go by very slow. As such I am lacking the energy to do some kind of major post that will illuminate the future for all time or something to that degree. I will give an answer to a question posed in the comments section, rip off the best works on the web via linkage, and then reinvigorate with an entertainment section sure to please one and all.

Asked and Answered
From time to time the comments section is visited by one of the Anon posters. The one I am talking about offers a great contrarian view than most of what I write and usually will ask great questions that I will think about for some time. Last night was such an instance.

Anon@7:58 posted:
Here's a question, when is the last time you were optimistic, I mean truly optimistic about the state of the US economy? My guess is the answer is never, hence the reason some (namely I) question your impartiality.

For me, I was optimistic in 01, staid in 02-03, concerned in 04, gloomy gus pessimist 2005-07. Since then, I have slowly become more and more optimistic. Despite the massive, massive govt interventions, we still have gone through the most jarring economic dislocation in decades. We are so much closer to the bottom now than we were in 2005, and this makes me much more optimistic now than I was then.
Now if you are not familiar with Anon that comment may have seemed a touch rough, but I actually like his/her up front take and there are some points here that I would like to discuss.

When was the last time I was optimistic on the US economy? I would say the 1998-2000 time frame. I was fresh out of college, working at one of the hottest biotechs in the industry, gene discovery was running at a clip unseen which promised new drugs, the Internet was not new but the promise it offered sure was, a projected budget surplus was a good thing I thought, the dollar was king crap of turd mountain, and everyone around me (and myself to some extent) were riding the stock market wave higher.

So what happened?

Well, all those genes I and many others found were great but never really translated (pun intended!) to real drugs. My firm was losing about 400-700 million a year but was valued at something like 8 Billion dollars!

Cisco was almost worth more than Japan or something and suddenly that made no sense anymore.

All those stocks up in the nosebleeds came down hard and many got toasted (I sold all my options $5 from the all time high! HA!).

Pets.com closed which was scary.

On some of this I am trying to be funny, but what happened was a huge bubble burst. Soon I was informed I would be out of a job and had to find another. Many faced the same thing. The rest I think you probably know how it goes.

In summary, I wanted to learn how the whole thing happened and that was how I learned about things economic and especially about bubbles.

And not even 2 years later I started to see some of the same signs in housing here in Massachusetts. I applied lessons learned and figured the easy money from Alan Greenspan was an attempt to make the same kind of bubble the dotcom was in another form to rescue an economy that was facing the worst recession since the Great Depression (and yes many were writing that then!).

So Anon, you say you turned more optimistic in 2001, but I was the opposite. I thought it would take a long time to work off all the malinvestment. Little did I know a bubble replacement was in the works.

Now do not confuse macro views with short window views. I knew housing was going up and would continue to until a blow off top, so you could say I was "optimistic" on home prices, but pessimistic on the ramifications to the economy. That's why I was piling into gold and silver from 2002-2004.

I am not optimistic now. Anon may well be right that we are near "the bottom" and I may even agree. What I think we will differ on is how long we stay at the bottom. Just because you have stopped falling does not mean you are going to go up. I do not have time to cover all the reasons for my views, if you read regularly you know the imbalances of which I speak

Anyways, I hope that both answered Anon's question and was worth a read in the process. I do not pretend to know everything I just offer my take.

Linkage
Trolling the Internets (both of them) for the best reads out there so you can all save time.

Official World Gold Holdings and the Evolution of Global Trade and Wealth
The sharp as an obsidian scalpel Jesse starts off with some gold related ideas and then expands into some key ideas you should be aware of.

Q4 GDP: Beware the Blip
Calculated Risk could have saved CNBC all the breathless amazement at today's GDP number. Hint: it's a one hit wonder.

We are Screwed - The State of the Union
Reader C-T let go on a great missive that is worth a look. Great point:
More and more of the American middle class are joining the race to the bottom, entering the ranks of the poor every day. Food Stamps and other entitlement programs have replaced the food lines of the Great Depression.
To which I responded:
Why is it nobody gets this? They all say "In the Depression there were food lines" well WTF do you call millions on food stamps? I call it moving the line out of sight.
Indeed.

Wall Street Reform and the Federal Reserve
Sharp take on some historical facts about the FED, the US dollar, fiat currency, and much more from Sonicninjakitty.

The blogroll on the left (on the right for those of you in the southern hemisphere) has plenty to read on a news filled day as well.

Friday Night Entertainment
I was sidetracked most of the day exchanging emails with a trader friend of mine who was playing TNA for the morning pop then sold off to avoid the after 11am downdraft. TNA is an ETF so get your mind out of the gutter! Anyways, plenty of good fun this evening.

I am Not Making This Up
Sometimes real life is better than make believe!

Headline:
Christina Fernandez, Argentinian President, Says Pork is Better Than Viagra for Sex Life
The best looking president in the world shared her input on the other white meat:
Argentinian President Cristina Fernandez has told a gathering at her Presidential Palace that pork is even better than Viagra for spicing things up in the bedroom - and credited a satisfying weekend with her husband to the meat.
"I've just been told something I didn't know, that eating pork improves your sex life," she said in a televised speech to the leaders of the Argentinian meat industry, "I'd say it's a lot nicer to eat a bit of grilled pork than take Viagra."
Speaking of a weekend spent with her husband after eating the meat, Fernandez said, "We were in high spirits the whole weekend... I'm a pork fanatic."
For Valentines day gentlemen, may I suggest some flowers, some candy, and some bone-in pork chops? You never know!

Bookshop
Loyal reader and literary sage Gawains suggested some works this week:
-"Exiles" by Ron Hansen which looks very compelling
-"Imbibe" by David Wondrich and with a title like that it is going in my Amazon basket!

And no I do not get anything from Amazon, no affiliation.

I will throw in a book passage:
"In addition to believing that my brother's book deserves to be read, there is another reason for having it published.
Frankly his story is incredible. No matter how I try, I can't believe it. I hope its publication creates the possibility that someone will. For myself, I can accept only one aspect of it-but that I accept completely: To Richard, this was not a work of fiction. He believed, without question, that he lived each moment."
Prologue for "Somewhere in Time" by Richard Matheson.

Funny Picture
Naked Capitalism offered this choice picture:

Be sure to drink your ovaltine!

This is running long, so here we go....

Rock Blogging
Take a chance, come on and dance
Guys grab a girl, don't wait, make HER TWIRL
It's your world and I'm just a SQUIRREL
Trying to get a nut to move your butt
To the dance floor, so yo what's up
C&C Music Factory!

Where to start? Ok, when I was young I used to see those TV commercials that had those huge compilation albums for sale and the titles would scroll on the screen and soundbites were played. I always loved the song by the Moody Blues, "Knights in White Satin" and it was on every one of those albums:

Nice!

Some requests?
Gawains wonders if I like country music, and I of course grew up on folk and country music and my Dad's 12 string guitar! Try out David Allen Coe with "You Never Even Called Me by My Name":

My position is I don't care what the ladies call me, as long as they call me!

I had never heard The Police tune "Synchronicity" and lets say I found it interesting:

My wifes dream man has been Sting for years!

From a late comment from last post I was challenged to post a song with just some lyrics to go on. I KNEW one song right off the bat, but I also weaseled out and did a search and now I am stuck. Best guess, is Michael Damian's "Rock On" but the older version is better I think (plus I had help!). Try out David Essex and "Rock On":

Thanks!

Editors picks? Ok.

In line with the "not in one calendar year repeat unless special circumstances" rule, enjoy the greatest metal singer going it alone with "Tears of the Dragon":

I still get chills on that one.

Last Call!

Get loose, get crazy and get wild with White Snake and "Still of the Night":

Unreal!

Have a good night!

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow--what a superabundance of material here tonight! Thank you for the linky-love. You are too kind :) CT's article is awesome! Very perceptive stuff.

I am afraid to comment on the pork tidbit. How weird! I am anxiously awaiting TOTN's take on it, though, lol!

I like the picture, but wonder do we really need a ring to detect any bs? More like we need a ring to detect the rare occasion there is no bs!

For the music: it is so hard to believe that Police album made us all fall in love with Sting. He is INSANE in that video!! Plus it's just so dark. I think it's perfect for this week--"something crawls from the slime at the bottom of a dark (Scottish) lake"--it's the creature from Jekyll Island!!! Oh man--I am really obsessing.... Overall, you are expanding my musical knowledge.

Lastly, I, too, mourned the loss of pets.com, which was funny because I didn't have a pet at that time....

Great Friday fun--thanks!!

EconomicDisconnect said...

Sonic,
glad you had a good time. I fear Toms take on some items tonight!

My wife has an "exception" and that is Sting, she loves him! I have one for Lil Kim!

Do you like Depeche Mode?

Anonymous said...

Depeche Mode was my moody phase. (Some would argue it's a phase I've never outgrown, haha!) I ALMOST dyed my hair black for them. I DID try and emulate the fashion, though. Yeesh!

EconomicDisconnect said...

All Ive ever wanted, all ive ever needed is here in my arms....

Anonymous said...

Words are very unnecessary--they can only do harm........

This is making me moody again :/

EconomicDisconnect said...

All I ever wanted......is here in my arms...
try some pork or so I hear!

Anonymous said...

I have to say--that was most excellent advice!

sedentary state said...

>That's why I was piling into gold and silver from 2002-2004.

Wow, good move. I saw the housing bubble way early too, but reacted a bit less optimally. To "get over on the system" I stayed out of RE and out of stocks, then watched in frustration for 5 years as they repealed the laws of physics, common sense and sanity.

Wish I had had your clairvoyance hooded one.

EconomicDisconnect said...

sedentarystate,
When I was buying my core position I was not even nervous. Not sure why not as I usually agonize over buys. Still glad I have it too.

If i was really smart I would have rode the builders up all the way (TOL, etc) but I felt that was contributing to the madness. Oh well.

CT-Hilltopper said...

Oh yes...Depeche...Dave Gahan...I went through that phase too LOL

Thanks for the David Essex! I like that one much more than the Damien one.

CT-Hilltopper said...

Also...re: what you posted on my blog regarding Geithner.

Have a look at Jesse's blog today.

The forces are lining up. It looks as if Geithner is it.

Someone has to take the fall. They are feeding Geithner to the blood starved pack.

Honey, don't doubt me on this. It's the Chicago style-politics playbook they're playing with, and Turbo Timmy just doesn't fit in. As I said in my post...he lies like ass.

Who else are they going to give them? Rahm Emmanuel? Haha...

EconomicDisconnect said...

From Jesse's piece:
"As Representative Marcy Kaptur told Geithner at the hearing: “A lot of people think that the president of the New York Fed works for the U.S. government. But in fact you work for the private banks that elected you.”

One difference I have noted, compared to the English and the Japanese, is that the American officials and CEO's never hesitate to hide behind the incompetency defense, but rarely have the dignity to resign when they do so. This is because they have no shame, no real loyalty to anyone but themselves.

And at the very least Geithner should be fired, if not for complicity, then for sheer inability to do the job."

This was the argument I made this week as well.

C-T,
I have no doubt on you, just doubt Obama would get rid of Geithner and admit ANY failure at all while he is struggling as bad a s he is right now. I do hope I am wrong.

Glad you liked the song. The M. Damien one was featured in a film called "Dream a Little Dream" and that was how I knew the tune by the lyrics. That and the force.

Peace is a lie; there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Ok music fans, answer me this as i am torn;
Which song is the best use of the saxaphone in rock?
Hall and Oates "Maneater"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I-qJ9IsGpM

Quarterflash "Harden My Heart"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaSHtnLvdks

I am leaning Quarterflash but its a close call.

GawainsGhost said...

For the best sax in rock, I would go with Roxy Music, "If There Is Something."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnV-agq0Yzw

Talk about a cutting edge band. They were doing new wave before the wave was even new.

As to the question of whether the market has hit the bottom, I'll respond with a question. Is there a bottom to a bottomless pit?

Sure. I mean, there's no such thing as a hole that goes unobstructed through the entire planet. But if the pit is filled with quicksand, does it really matter where the bottom is?

I highly recommend reading John Mauldin's latest essay, "We Are So Screwed," over at Clusterstock. It contains a brief review and some quotes from This Time Is Different, a new book on financial crises by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

I haven't read the book, but judging from Mauldin's excerpts I may have to. Crises don't happen gradually but rather all at once, when confidence is shattered.

While profound and relevant this really is nothing new. It's just been forgotten or unheeded.

In a dynamic, complex system, of which an economy surely is, at a certain point the entire system collapses, due to the weight of its own complexity, with a small change in the initial conditions on which the construct is built.

So it is with leverage. Debt-fueled economies or governments are prone to systemic failure immediately, as soon as the ability to service the debt is altered by the slightest degree. Thus, none of this will end well, and we are nowhere near the bottom.

Or, in the immortal words of Jim Morrison, "I've been down so goddamn long / That it looks like up to me."

By the way, I finished reading Exiles. It is a fascinating, at least to me anyway, book. A tale of sacrifice, service, loss, and death which forms the basis for inspiration. And one of the most beautifully moving poems in all of literature. To wit, a stanza (No. 28):

But how shall I . . . make me room there:
Reach me a . . . Fancy, come faster--
Strike you the sight of it? look at it loom there,
Thing that she . . . there then! the Master,
Ipse, the only one, Christ, King, Head:
He was to cure the extremity of where he had cast her;
Do, deal, lord it with living and dead;
Let him ride, her pride, in his triumph, despatch and have done with his doom there.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Gawains,
Thanks for the excerpt, I think that entry may cause the book to find its way to my book order.

watchtower said...

How about the big man Clarence Clemens's sax work in Springsteen's 'Sherry Darling'?

But if the choice is restricted to either Quarterflash or H&O I'd pick Quarterflash.

Quarterflash always reminds me of the early 80's movie 'Night Shift' (perhaps because they sing the theme of the movie).

http://tinyurl.com/yd9ce5r

EconomicDisconnect said...

Watchtower,
I was hoping to see you!

I think that lady from Quarterflash whalling that sax is way too cool. I watch that thing like 2 times a day!

Springsteen! Even if we are dancing in the dark? My fav is "Born in the USA".

watchtower said...

Once again my mind has been drifting to car thoughts.

Must be cabin fever or the fact that I test drove the new 2010 SS Camaro (426 hp manual trans model).

The missus absolutely loves the new Camaro's lines so we went and checked one out before the snow fell.

I'd be lying if I said it wasn't faster than my Bullitt but it wasn't quite what I'd expected.

Good points:

Killer engine.

Killer looks.

It does a good job hiding it's weight.

Everybody is staring at you.


Not so good points:

Clutch engagement leaves a lot to be desired.

Semi-harsh ride compared to Bullitt (I'm not talking about hitting bumps mid-corner with IRS, that part is wonderful).

Interior ergonomics designed by aliens, no not illegal aliens, space aliens.

Everybody is staring at you.


All in all a fantastic car but so is the Bullitt IMO...for about 13k less.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Watchtower,
wow 13k less? I think that is a bit too much. I do love the new Camaro body style though.

Is the manual a 6 speed? I wonder which tranny is in the car for all the extra horsepower.

insanity shelter said...

I guess I didn't get the memo on this till today. Health care bill dead. From Peggy Noonan article,

The president did not speak of health care until a half hour in. "As temperatures cool, I want everyone to take another look at the plan we've proposed." Then, "If anyone has a better idea, let me know." Those bland little sentences hidden in plain sight heralded an epic fact: The battle over the president's health-care plan is over, and the plan will not be imposed on the country.

Waxing boring on the virtues of the bill was a rhetorical way to obscure the fact that it is dead. To say, "I'm licked and it's done" would have been damagingly memorable. Instead he blithely vowed to move forward, and moved on. The bill will now get lost in the mists and disappear. It is a collapsed soufflé in an unused kitchen in the back of an empty house.

watchtower said...

The new SS Camaro has the Tremec TR6060 6 speed tranny.

I'm not saying it's a bad transmission, I'm just saying it doesn't have the wonderfully smooth engagement that the Bullitt has.

List price on the Bullitt I bought was $33730.00, price I paid was $27093.00 (after rebates and haggling, no trade in).

List price of the SS I was looking at almost touched 40k and they are currently sticking with MSRP around here.

The new Camaro is certainly a looker though, not to mention that kick a** engine.

TomOfTheNorth said...

Howdy connected,

I had an extensive comment for you all typed up when, upon submission, the POS blew up and all was lost. It's taken me a couple days to overcome the disappointment. So here's an abridged version:

Pessimism - In mid '09 I was reminded of the late '80s, early '90s when GHW Bush declared a 'new prosperity in America'. I was pessimistic & skeptical but then he renegged on his no new tax pledge and federal spending was simultaneously shorn. And The Resolution Trust Corp cleared the decks from the S&L Crisis. So a recovery was underway when WJ Clinton took office. Fast forward to NOW - No clearing the decks of bad debt, federal spending is exploding into space and tax revenues are falling into an abyss at all levels of Government. Yeah, I'd say I'm pessimistic.....

Now to happy stuff:

Never really dug the later Police. Loved their earlier Ska however:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xcayi_the-police-walking-on-the-moon

It's a cheesy video but has the original version recording.

Love the Whitesnake vid - great song!

Here's MY favorite Bruce Dickinson Clip:

http://www.funnyhub.com/videos/pages/snl-more-cowbell.html

And I always liked that David Essix song but referring back to my opening remarks on pessimism, it begs the question:

Where do we go from here????

Best,
TOTN

TomOfTheNorth said...

Re: cars

Check out the kit car mentioned in this article. A smokin' hot diesel Off Road Rally racer. This beast is CRAZY:

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/01/ff_newrevolution/all/1

ME LIKEE!

but me no affordee :(

LOL

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PARIS HILTON IN BED
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ELISHA CUTHBERT BIKINI
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HOT CELEBRITY PICS
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HOT CELEBRITY PICS
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Anonymous said...

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MILEY CYRUS PORN
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OLIVIA MUNN NUDE
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GALLERY OF LINDSAY LOHAN
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Anonymous said...

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STACY KEIBLER NUDE
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BRITTANY SPEARS NUDE
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CARMEN ELECTRA SEX SCENE
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JENNIFER TILLY NUDE
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Anonymous said...

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