Friday, December 11, 2009

Frigid Friday

Hello once again! I left a post this morning regarding the closing of almost all of my trading positions, so if interested check it out. It is bitter cold here today and I only ventured out one time for some necessities. I will recount my experience in a section below.

Shopping Trip to Sams Club
The Illusion of Prosperity author Stagflationary Mark would have been jealous, but the wife and I made a trip to Sams Club to procure some paper towels, toilet paper, and coffee creamer bulk style. I made a point to check out the setting and what people were buying so I can make one of those annoying "anecdotal" observations. So here it is:
-Plenty of people in the store for the middle of the day
-Nobody was buying electronics at all; maybe everyone goes to Best Buy but I did not see one electronic item in a carriage at the checkout
-People like to buy bulk tortilla chips, go figure
-Bulk meat buying is popular from what I saw
-Busiest store section? The computer/Wii/Xbox game aisle was jammed

Probably not much to take away from that one trip, but that is what I saw.

Great Reads
Had the pleasure of extra time to read a couple of longer pieces today that would be worth a look by all.

Eric Janzen of Itulip offers the first part of a market commentary for free (the other you have to pay for) and it had so much in it about gold, the dollar, and banking that anyone trying to get a grip on things would do well to ponder over it:
Asylum Markets of the post FIRE Economy – Part I: Locked Up
Wow. Just wow.

The second show stopper comes from The Automatic Earth author Ilargi, and no I am not a paid advertiser for TAE, just a big fan!:
There is No Recovery
Ilargi: Jim Rogers is right. There is no recovery in the American economy. Things have only gotten worse, and a lot too. Still, Rogers can’t help seeing the world through his own subjective eyes either, distorted by his age and his professional views. He makes money as an investor, and can’t imagine a world in which investors like him are not part of the landscape.

And that’s the big blind spot for most analysts, publications and websites that occupy themselves with finance and the economy. They're written by people who make a living because the economy is organized a certain way, and they see a situation in which that will mostly continue to be so, with some more or less minor tweaking. Rogers understands a lot of what’s coming, but he stops short of pondering himself as a victim. This may be completely natural and logical, but it does potentially cloud his vision. For him, the question is where to invest, not whether to invest at all.
There is much, much more so check it out.

Just a Jumble of Contradictory Babble
There were a few "what was that?" moments for me today as I read the daily rounds. I think the current morass is such a mess that people do not even know how to formulate a coherent thought anymore, and maybe they no longer want to try.

How about these two headlines from Yahoo Finance today:
Democrats plan nearly $2 trillion debt limit hike
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democrats plan to allow the government's debt to swell by nearly $2 trillion as part of a bill next week to pay for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The amount pretty much equals the total of a year-end spending spree by lawmakers and is big enough to ensure that Congress doesn't have to vote again on going further into debt until after the 2010 elections.

The move has anxious moderate Democrats maneuvering to win new deficit-cutting tools as the price for their votes, igniting battles between the House and the Senate and with powerful interest groups on both the right and the left.

The record increase in the so-called debt limit -- the legal cap on the amount of money the government can borrow -- is likely to be in the neighborhood of $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Friday.

That eye-popping figure is making Democrats woozy but is what is needed to make sure they don't have to vote again before next year's midterm elections. The government's total debt has nearly doubled in the past seven years and is expected to exceed the current ceiling of $12.1 trillion before Jan. 1.
I have to hand it to Congress, they are well aware that 90% of American voters will either be unaware about this or forget about it come election time so get it out of the way. Unreal. Some want deficit reduction provisions applied AFTER they approve another raise on the debt ceiling? WTF?

Note the swelling of the debt ceiling by another 2 Trillion in no doubt "short term" deficits. Of course right on the heels of this news comes:
Moody's sees no threat to U.S. top rating for now
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The top sovereign credit ratings of Britain and the United States are not under threat of a downgrade right now, but a worst case scenario foresees a cut by 2013, analysts from Moody's Investors Service said on Friday.

The comments, which reiterated an analysis from the ratings agency released on Tuesday, helped to lift the pound to session highs.

"Only the UK and the U.S. are classified as 'resilient,' rather than 'resistant.' Their resiliency will be tested in the next couple of years, but for now they have a high degree of financeability and debt affordability," the analysts said in a presentation.

"The rise in debt and higher interest costs could test the ratings under some scenarios, but not right away."
Well I feel better now.

Of course I can always rely on Paul Krugman to put together the kind of government spending plan idea that dwarfs anything ever seen on Earth. Today's missive by Krugman may well be over the top by even his standards. Excerpt from his piece below with my comments mixed in for comic relief:
Bernanke’s Unfinished Mission
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, recently had some downbeat things to say about our economic prospects. The economy, he warned, “confronts some formidable headwinds.” All we can expect, he said, is “modest economic growth next year — sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate, but at a pace slower than we would like.”

Actually, he may have been too optimistic: There’s a good chance that unemployment will rise, not fall, over the next year. But even if it does inch down, one has to ask: Why isn’t the Fed trying to bring it down faster?
That dual mandate thing of inflation protection and full employment is tough! More:
Some background: I don’t think many people grasp just how much job creation we need to climb out of the hole we’re in. You can’t just look at the eight million jobs that America has lost since the recession began, because the nation needs to keep adding jobs — more than 100,000 a month — to keep up with a growing population. And that means that we need really big job gains, month after month, if we want to see America return to anything that feels like full employment.

How big? My back of the envelope calculation says that we need to add around 18 million jobs over the next five years, or 300,000 jobs a month. This puts last week’s employment report, which showed job losses of “only” 11,000 in November, in perspective. It was basically a terrible report, which was reported as good news only because we’ve been down so long that it looks like up to the financial press.
Wow! Krugman blasts the CNBC line of "everything is getting better!" Paul, I didn't know you had it in you! Back to the article:
So if we’re going to have any real good news, someone has to take responsibility for creating a lot of additional jobs. And at this point, that someone almost has to be the Federal Reserve.
Oh no, we are taking a bad turn here, cringe and move ahead later in the piece:
The most specific, persuasive case I’ve seen for more Fed action comes from Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed staffer now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Basing his analysis on the prior work of none other than Mr. Bernanke himself, in his previous incarnation as an economic researcher, Mr. Gagnon urges the Fed to expand credit by buying a further $2 trillion in assets. Such a program could do a lot to promote faster growth, while having hardly any downside.
Well, you knew it was coming! Another 2 trillion in FED money for buying more "troubled assets"? Like the first few attempts were so successful? Never let facts get in the way Paul, I like that. 2 trillion, just an amazing number. Final summation and key blind spot for Krugman:
But there’s also, I believe, a question of priorities. The Fed sprang into action when faced with the prospect of wrecked banks; it doesn’t seem equally concerned about the prospect of wrecked lives.

And that is what we’re talking about here. The kind of sustained high unemployment envisaged in the Fed’s own forecasts is a recipe for immense human suffering — millions of families losing their savings and their homes, millions of young Americans never getting their working lives properly started because there are no jobs available when they graduate. If we don’t get unemployment down soon, we’ll be paying the price for a generation.
Quite the passionate plea.

Jobs are very important. I think that in a country like the US anyone that wants a job should be able to get one. While that will never be true, right now is the harshest employment picture I have ever seen in my adult life.

That said, see Krugman's myopia? We cannot allow jobless numbers to remain high because it will cost the future generation in terms of earning ability. Now just print up 2, 3, 5 Trillion dollars to make short term, non sustainable jobs and that cost will not impact the next generation one bit! Amazing logic indeed.

I actually agree with Krugman here (I know, nuts!). We are not going to pay for any of this, not really, and I do not think anyone really thinks we will. When you owe say 9 Trillion, is that really different from 19 Trillion? Is there really a difference? Really? How so?

I have often discussed the possibility of a US debt Chandrasekhar Limit, which I detailed all the way back in October 2008:
Now as I am one of the sorry uneducated masses, my question for Roubini, Krugman, et al is simple:
Does the United States Have a Debt Chandrasekhar Limit?

The Chandrasekhar Limit is defined as:
"For main-sequence stars with a mass below approximately 8 solar masses, the mass of this core will remain below the Chandrasekhar limit, and they will eventually lose mass (as planetary nebulae) until only the core, which becomes a white dwarf, remains. Stars with higher mass will develop a degenerate core whose mass will grow until it exceeds the limit. At this point the star will explode in a core-collapse supernova, leaving behind either a neutron star or a black hole.".

What I am asking is whether there is a limit on the amount of debt the US can generate before a total implosion occurs (the end result of a supernova). Is there a limit? It seems Iceland could not print or generate enough debt to save itself. Zimbabwe has the market cornered in the 10 Billion dollar note market as they print away. How come the US can make all the money they want?

I realize I am being a bit sarcastic here, but the question is a serious one. At present the US has around 3 Trillion dollars committed to this "rescue" effort. Is 6 trillion too much? 9 Trillion? 30 Trillion? At what point will the system break down and go supernova? Like the FED thinks they know what interest rates have to be in exact percentage points, do economists know how far we can push the debt envelope?
As yet, no one can offer a definite dollar amount where the US will implode. Maybe we will have to find out by getting there.

Friday Night Entertainment
On account of having the day off, it does not feel like a Friday, but onward with the weekly show.

Funny Pictures
In my never ending quest for page views so I can be paid an enormous amount of money to write or just cherry pick funny pictures, I offer the following chuckles:

In what I would title "Ode to Clint Eastwood", this cat nails the sneer:
funny pictures of cats with captions
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
Nasty!

Sure this is not a Las Vegas City sign? (note bottom right placard):
fail owned pwned pictures
see more Epic Fails

For some hilarious, but mostly NSFW laughs try out This Is Photo Bomb. Very amusing.

Film Clips
I am influencing you through magic to watch these films.

Before he was "Goose"; Before he was "Dr. Green" Anthony Edwards starred in an old school film called "Gotcha", which if you have seen this film, you are as coll as all get out:

Linda Fiorentino as well, nice! Check the 3:25 mark, hilarious!

I still get chills form Aragorn's speech at the walls of Mordor:

Let's fight!!

Rock Blogging
Some music to send you on your weekend adventures.

The tale of Israel Kamakawiwo'ole is a sad one, but please enjoy his moving rendition of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow":


Just heard this on the radio in the car today, and I could still picture the video in my head! Try out Foreigner and "I Want to Know What Love Is":

Nice vocals!

Talent = Your music should sound the same or better live versus a studio album. Audioslave had talent, as this live "Like a Stone" performance proves:


Time to close the show!

Enjoy the classic (and so often used I cannot even count) Richard Wagner composition "Ride of the Valkyries":

Excellent indeed.

Have a good night.

8 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

Hello Out There??

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

"The Illusion of Prosperity author Stagflationary Mark would have been jealous, but the wife and I made a trip to Sams Club to procure some paper towels, toilet paper, and coffee creamer bulk style."

I anticipated your move and actually bought more toilet paper and paper towels at Costco this evening!

Okay, okay, maybe I did not anticipate your move but I did buy more at Costco. ;)

I drove by the mall. It seemed pretty busy. I visited Wal-Mart and I even took a tour of the electronics area. That section of the store was nearly a ghost town. I had it pretty much to myself. It was kind of weird because the checkouts were packed. Saw quite a bit of food buying, a few heaters in carts, and a fair amount of what looked like Christmas buying. Just not much going on in TVs, music, and gaming.

I also visited PetSmart. It was rather quiet and subdued. I needed to buy some bird food. Did not have to stand in line to pay. There was just the one checker.

Drove by Macy's furniture store. Looked pretty empty.

Costco wasn't all that busy. I didn't need to wait in line to pay.

That's my anecdotal evidence for the evening.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

"I've been wanting to do that for the last six months."

Gotcha's a classic. :)

getyourselfconnected said...

Mark,
you dont dissapoint!

I did see real traffic at the Halo 3 display, I told the kids I was friends with the writer of the game, but they did not believe me. Oh well.

Anonymous said...

Buying memory is such a big hassle... You have to search online for prices, filter through which ones are genuine, visit a bunch of stores,compare prices, finally buy your memory, and then constantly pray that the price doesn't drop in the next 2 weeks or so.

I've been f'd over by rapid price drops in the past... especially this one time when I bought a Micro SD card for my DS flashcard at what was apparently a steal, only to later see that it had dropped $5 in a week's time.

(Submitted on rrPost for R4i Nintendo DS.)

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