Friday, June 5, 2009

Friday Information Overload

Another week in the books. This work week seemed like 7 days long. Busy is good, but it can be a little hectic. Full weekend of work out in the yard and inside with heater cover replacement should mean the weekend is shrunk in time. Well, at least we are getting ever so closer to NFL season! A bit short on energy for things cerebral, so some quick hits and then on to the entertainment.

As this is a family type blog (most of the time) we will not discuss the new facts concerning the death of David Carridine. Still a sad story, but somehow both more and less shocking at the same time.

Must See Employment Widget
The Big Picture showcased a fine piece of work by the folks at TIPS Strategies that is a must see. I cannot embed it, so please use the link to Barry's blog here.

The explosion of unemployment is staggering when presented in this format.

Latvia Commentary
I had made some comments on the Latvia debt sale failure the other night. So far this has been seen as a non event by the markets, and I offered that is was a question of scale, not principle. Latvia is such a small player they are not causing alarm bells to go off. Ignore at your own peril I say.

Excellent site The Baseline Scenario had some ideas today that I felt captured the heart of the matter. Excerpt:
Latvia: Should You Care?
In the current field of grand economic strategy, against crisis and for recovery, Latvia looms small. This is a country with just two million residents, best known recently for a huge current account deficit – the excess of imports over exports peaked out around 25 percent of GDP. Ordinarily, there is nothing here that should move the world economy.
Yet, there are some intriguing and somewhat disconcerting signs that point towards our common future – much like a close study of Iceland, back in October 2008, told us a great deal about what was to come...
..My takeaway: we are still not ready for hard economic conversations anywhere in the world. Wishful thinking prevails, in Europe as much as in the United States. No one wants to start the difficult and messy task of restructuring – i.e., reducing – debt payments. Everyone feels entitled to a bailout. And the banks get one.
Or put it to your elected representative like this – we’re transferring Latvia’s debts from European banks onto the IMF, which is underwritten by our future tax dollars; then there will be default and devaluation for which no one is prepared.

Yet another "wait it out" approach that always work so well.

Spare Me
The FED is worried about a bond market dislocation. The FED has only one tool left and that is public words that they hope will not garner too many laughs. Now Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is getting in on the "raise rates" brigade:
The Federal Reserve needs to be "anticipatory" and not wait too long to tighten monetary policy, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in an interview published on Friday. ... Lockhart is a voter on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which meets June 23-24.

The FED cannot anticipate their next bowel movement much less when they might raise rates to a staggering 0.25%. Spare me the baloney gentlemen. My call for zero into 2010 still stands.

Foreign Central Bank Holdings and Possible Games
Every Friday you should stop by Housing Doom and the weekly compilation of graphs and data concerning foreign central bank purchases of US debt. This weeks report has plenty of information that is important, so no excerpts. Just check it out.

Essay Contest
Last night I opened up a channel where any and all could write a short explanation why higher oil prices and/or higher mortgage rates are good for the economy. I was a little surprised how few entrants there were both here and at the articles pick up at Seeking Alpha. Still, quality matters and not quantity.

Stagflationary Mark, writer of the great site Illusion of Prosperity, works through the medium of sarcasm much like myself. Mark submitted the following short essay in answer to the questions "How will higher oil and mortgage rates help the Economy?":
1. Higher Mortgage Rates.
Some people will sell their homes as home affordability goes down. Other people will buy new homes before interest rates go higher. That wealth transfer can then be taxed. Once completed, mortgage rates can tank again. That will allow the second set of people to sell at a loss and allow the first set of people to subsidize those losses through government bailouts. It's the American dream! We're living it!

Further, the information age's sarcastic economy will thrive under such conditions. Expect "Economic Disconnect" and "Illusion of Prosperity" type blogs to rocket higher during their initial public offerings, lol.

2. Higher Oil Prices.
Higher oil prices will lead to lower oil prices. We've already seen this once. As a general rule of thumb, expect oil prices to become 5x cheaper if we can first get oil prices 10x more expensive.

However, even if oil does not crash there are still benefits to our consumer driven economy. Picture the following.

The typical consumer probably lives toilet paper roll to toilet paper roll (sort of like paycheck to paycheck). Now picture how is behavior changes when the headlines say, "Toilet paper shortage imminent." Shopping, baby! That's what I'm talking about. Consumers will be literally clearing out the shelves.

In summary, I am very optimistic about rising mortgage rates and rising oil prices. Combine that will higher taxation on basic needs and we should have this economy humming along in no time.

My face was hurting as I was reading that!

Mark has won the contest, and thus he is entitled to his name in print (I have done that) and a feeling of achievement. In addition Mark has won one ounce of fine .999 silver. The choices are:
-One 1oz Pan American Silver bar
-One 1oz Silvertowne Mint Silver bar
-One 1oz American Silver Eagle round

To claim your prize Mark:
-leave a secondary email in the comments section tonight (one you don't need or use much)
-I will email you with a detail that you can be sure it is Economic Disconnect
-I will need your address to ship to as well as your silver ounce selection
Well done Mark!

Friday Night Entertainment
I need a break so onto the good stuff!

Must See Trailer
The Star Wars franchise is expanding into the massive multi player onlione space with a new game called "Star Wars: The Old Republic". I do not play video games, but the HD trailer for the game is simply awesome. No, try wicked. It is tonight's must see video:



LOL Cats
It seems even clever cats can be suckered into a Bernie Madoff Pyramid Scam:

funny pictures of cats with captions
see more Lolcats and funny pictures

All hail master kitty:
funny pictures of cats with captions
see more Lolcats and funny pictures

Film Clips
Christopher Reeve will always be “Superman” in my book. The ending sequence in “Superman I” has always been one of my favorites. Watch Superman turn time back to save Lois Lane:


One my favorite actors is John Cusack and one of my favorite films is "Fat Man and Little Boy" which was a based on reality but cspiced up recounting of building of the first atomic bombs. The fil also starred Paul Newman, another favorite. In the following scene the scientists are "tickling the dragons tail" by testing plutonium criticality. A mistake happens and Cusack's character has a split second to stop a major nuclear event at the cost of his own life:


Rock Blogging
Ok, now time for the tunes!

I have always been a big Neil Diamond fan. So many songs to choose from including "Sweet Caroline" and "Love on the Rocks" makes it tough. One song I always thought was great is "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show":


When I named this blog I had this particular song in mind; Stereo MC's and "Connected"; the line "Get Yourself Connected, the Writings on the Wall" is where my pen name came from:


If a song has not appeared for two years then I get to play it again! Please enjoy one of the ultimate power ballads, "Alone Again" by Dokken:


Last call!

Final song for the night. While many are familiar with the songs that the band Twisted Sister made video's for, most of their best songs never made it to Mtv. A great band that was very underrated, try out "Stay Hungry" from their early album:


Have a good night.

131 comments:

watchtower said...

Congratulations Mark, well done!

I've always liked John Cusack in this movie (can't remember the name of it though) where a kid is on a bicycle chasing John down and wanting his "two dollars".
Cheesy but hilarious.

Anonymous said...

GYAC

A couple of things can be determined about Mark with that essay.

1. He has a BS degree in creative writing and 2. He has obviously work for a US company at one time or other.

Good job Mark I think your CFO material if things don't work out and you have to go back to work.
Kevin

getyourselfconnected said...

Watchtower,
The film is "better off dead" and it is a classic!
Kevin,
thanks for introducing Mark to all of us, his style and writing is just what we need!
Surprised you did not enter an essay though, your wit is sharp as can be.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Cheesy but hilarious!!!

"Truly a sight to behold. A man beaten. The once great champ, now, a study in moppishness. No longer the victory hungry stallion we've raced so many times before, but a pathetic, washed up, aged ex-champion." - Yee Sook Ree, Better Off Dead (1985)

If you like that, I would also recommend the 1998 action/comedy movie "The Big Hit". Lot's of cheesy situations, offbeat humor, and ridiculous situations. Too cheesy for most though it seems. It's also not suitable for kids.

My favorite is when the hostage is asked to read the ransom note.

She says, "These men mean businesses."

She then heckles it. He doesn't appreciate it.

She says, "It says "businesses." That's what it says. You said for me to read the note; not to improv it."

I laughed SO hard. I laughed all the way through it.

GYSC,

My email address is in the profile of my blog. That being said, I'd prefer to "pay it forward" and improve my karma instead. Perhaps you could donate it's cash value to a charity? Here's one idea.

http://www.mercycorps.org/mercykits/emergencyfoodkit

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Mark,
The cash value with shipping is about $22. I pondered over the site you listed and will donate $100 instead to that charity ( I will post receipt for the unbelievers), in your name. Very classy move, and thanks for highlighting a useful site for helping people.
Congrats for winning!
PS, still make your selection!

getyourselfconnected said...

Night all,
Thanks for the great interaction. Until 2morrow!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

"1. He has a BS degree in creative writing and 2. He has obviously work for a US company at one time or other."

I don't have a BS degree in creative writing, but I did work at a BS company. Hahaha!

Cendant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cendant

"In 1998, Cendant Corporation was accused of fraud after their company's merging of CUC International and HFS Incorporated in 1997. At the time, Vice Chairman E. Kirk Shelton, had inflated the company's revenue by $500 million over a period of three years. When this report was released to the public, the resulting damage to the market value for the company was approximately $14 billion, with their stock tumbling from a high of $41 down to nearly $12. At the time, this fiasco was the largest case of accounting fraud in the country's history. Mr. Shelton is now serving a 10 year prison sentence."

I was also awarded the largest batch of stock options I had ever been given the day BEFORE it hit.

After it hit, one of the higher ups told us the news while wearing dark sunglasses in a conference room with little light (the blinds were drawn and the lights were dimmed). It would not take a great leap of faith to realize that he had a hangover. Needless to say, the pep talk didn't inspire us.

Worse, he told us that our stock options would be repriced. Just one problem. Only half the employees had stock options. It was actually a closely guarded secret. Thsoe given stock options were told over and over again to never speak of them in public. The following was the most common question asked just after the meeting.

"Did you have stock options?"

So much for the don't ask, don't tell policy. It did NOT improve morale.

The day I quit is the best story of all. I got a phone call from another lead software engineer. He said he had the top news of the day. His story didn't top mine though, although it did tie. We both quit that day!

During the exit interview I was told, "So Earl tells us that he called you with the top news of the day..." They found it very disconcerting that we both quit on the same day, neither of us knew the other was quitting, and neither of us had a job lined up. Go figure!

I was also told that day that I didn't need to quit. I could just sit in my office and do nothing for a few months. No joke! Did I mention it was a "burning bridges" resignation letter? ;)

The guy that originally hired me was thrilled I'd written a "burning bridges" letter though. He also congratulated me on choosing to quit. He told me he'd be sure that the proper people read my letter. Oh what an environment that was by the time I left.

Anonymous said...

Hey All,

Good news... I got a new long term job...

This one is downsizing proof.
This one is downturn proof.
This one is recession proof.
This one is depression proof.
This one is war proof...

I bid you all farewell in hopes that I am not ever used at home.

G

PS: FUTURE WARRIOR

Anonymous said...

G

I hope you are never used at home against the people of this country either. Keep your head down my friend.

Mark, sure you have a BS degree in creative writing I just gave you one. The BS doesn't exactly stand for Bachelor of Science though if you get my drift. LOL

Kevin

watchtower said...

Be safe G and congratulations!

getyourselfconnected said...

G,
I wish you all the best.

GawainsGhost said...

Yeah, well, speaking of cats, we had a slight emergency a couple of weeks ago down here at stately Gawain manor.

I was out and about, doing what I do, checking on houses, taking pictures, taking notes, making water deposits, yada yada yada. Finally, I was done. While driving home I was thinking USDA Grade A prime bone-in sirloin, grilled over an open charcoal/mesquite fire, potatoes au gratin with cheese, steamed vegetables, you know planning dinner in my head.

I get this phone call. It's my mother. She wants me to stop by the store and pick up some cat food.

She has this cat, you see, named Puffy. Now, Puffy is a rather particular cat. She and my mother have this ritual. Every night when my mother gets back to her condo, Puffy scampers upstairs and waits by the dish. My mothers goes upstairs, puts some food in the dish and pets Puffy while she eats. Then Puffy jumps up onto the bathroom vanity and waits for my mother to turn on the faucet. Puffy has this thing about lapping up water from a flowing faucet, you understand. This is a nightly ritual.

Problem is that Puffy will eat only one kind of cat food, Little Friskies Seafood Sensation. And my mother had used the last of it the night before. So she wanted me to stop by the store and buy some more.

I told her that I don't know cat food. I only buy human food. But she insisted, so I agreed.

Well, wouldn't you know it, Little Friskies Seafood Sensation was nowhere to be found. I kept looking around, digging behind the shelves, and finally found one bag way in the back. So I bought it, took it over to my mother's condo, set it on the table, then went over to my condo and started grilling.

My mother comes home, takes one look at this bag of cat food, then comes over to my condo and says to me, "This bag expired last year."

I said, "That was the only bag they had."

She said, "I can't feed this to Puffy! Where is the receipt?"

"I threw it in the trash."

She goes and digs the receipt out of the trash, then takes it and the bag back to the store and berates the manager. "Would you sell rotten milk to a mother to feed her children? Then why are you selling rotten cat food to people to feed their pets?"

She demanded a refund, got one, then drove fifteen miles to the pet food store and bought fresh cat food. This of course took over an hour.

Somewhat astounded, I continued grilling and ate a delicious steak dinner. I am not about to inconvience myself for the sake of some cat.

My mother came home, went upstairs with Puffy and performed the nightly ritual. Then she came downstairs and ate her cold dinner.

This is what I am talking about. There is no limit to the inconvenience that pet owners will go through to provide for their pets. Most will buy ground meat and eat Hamburger Helper, just so they can afford gourmet food for their pet.

Not me, you understand. When I come home I am going to eat well. I don't skimp on food. I buy the best, because I intend to eat the best after a hard day's work. I've been this way all of my life. If I'm going to bust my ass in the real world, when I get back to my castle I'm going to eat like a king.

Yeah, sure, I'll throw some generic cat food in a dish for the pet. If she doesn't want to eat it, I look upon that as not my problem. She can starve for all I care. I'm not going to starve.

But not my mother. There is no level of inconvience she will not endure to provide for Puffy.

Thus, I am ultra-long Little Friskies.

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains,
My best friend through thick and thin was my cat. My cat's name was Sybil. She was my companion, my confidant, and my love. 2 years ago she died, and I am still mourning her. 10 years together and still I have an empty space.
Take home point:
Don't mess with cat people!
Thanks for checking in.

Stagflationary Mark said...

"This is what I am talking about. There is no limit to the inconvenience that pet owners will go through to provide for their pets. Most will buy ground meat and eat Hamburger Helper, just so they can afford gourmet food for their pet.

Not me, you understand. When I come home I am going to eat well. I don't skimp on food. I buy the best, because I intend to eat the best after a hard day's work. I've been this way all of my life. If I'm going to bust my ass in the real world, when I get back to my castle I'm going to eat like a king."

Hahaha! I have to laugh!

1. $160 vet bill for our 1/2 pound pet bird yesterday.
2. Freaking out that the gourmet dog food is low.
3. Girlfriend's cat's eating prescription food.
4. Girlfriend attended horse class umpteen miles away today.
5. How about me? I'm eating Hamburger Helper tonight, lol. Seriously!

In my defense, I no longer bust my ass in the real world. I once worked 30 hours straight in order to ship a product on time, on salary no less! Not one minute of it was overtime. Damn right I ate like a king!

watchtower said...

Well I have a daughter so of course I have to have cats.
I read somewhere that cats are the "gunslingers" of the animal world and I would have to agree from what I've seen.
Ours stay outside because my wife is allergic to them and usually they don't last long between the Labs and Retrievers that roam at will and the road that our future NASCAR hopefuls travel down, but we enjoy them while the're here.

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