Fishing trip was fairly productive. A little earlier in the summer than I am used to, but I was still able to find some fish. Hot here today, around 90 degrees and humid. Will be this was until Tuesday. I will never complain about heat.
Obama vs. McCain; Any Difference?
Luckily for the USA, Hillary Clinton ended her run for the presidency this weekend. The match up is Barack Obama (D) versus John McCain (R). I like to keep the politics out of the blog, but when they have an economic angle, I throw it in there. That said, there is not too much difference between the two candidates. I imagine Obama might have more spending ideas, but after the last 8 years who can say with a straight face that republicans spend less than democrats?
Keep in mind that if the nuclear fallout of the housing and credit bust gets as bad as I have forecast, whomever wins in November is likely a on term chief. Not that it would be their fault, but when is the public a fair judge? I am leaning towards Obama, as he certainly would be a fresh face and he has a ton of energy. If McCain adds Mitt Romney to his ticket for VP then I am with McCain.
So what is going to happen tomorrow? A huge gap down followed by panic selling that kills the indexes by 5% or more? A vicious rally up recapturing Friday's losses? Who can say. I will venture a guesstimate of a pretty good "UP" day, about 150 points on the DOW. Tuesday may have a more important commentary on the stock market going forward, as Monday will be too closely watched to be real.
Friday was a rough session. The oil issue is not going away. The home price meltdown is not going away. Banking issues are not going away, though some banks may indeed go away! The FED has almost done away with their entire balance sheet.
The macro picture is so bad, that I feel that things like the stock market and data sets like unemployment do not reflect the situation. I think things are bad for the first time since the early 1980's and people are still in denial. We are getting closer though to realization.
Have a good night.