Sunday, June 8, 2008

Sunday Mixed Bag

Fishing trip was fairly productive. A little earlier in the summer than I am used to, but I was still able to find some fish. Hot here today, around 90 degrees and humid. Will be this was until Tuesday. I will never complain about heat.

Obama vs. McCain; Any Difference?
Luckily for the USA, Hillary Clinton ended her run for the presidency this weekend. The match up is Barack Obama (D) versus John McCain (R). I like to keep the politics out of the blog, but when they have an economic angle, I throw it in there. That said, there is not too much difference between the two candidates. I imagine Obama might have more spending ideas, but after the last 8 years who can say with a straight face that republicans spend less than democrats?
Keep in mind that if the nuclear fallout of the housing and credit bust gets as bad as I have forecast, whomever wins in November is likely a on term chief. Not that it would be their fault, but when is the public a fair judge? I am leaning towards Obama, as he certainly would be a fresh face and he has a ton of energy. If McCain adds Mitt Romney to his ticket for VP then I am with McCain.

Monday Open
So what is going to happen tomorrow? A huge gap down followed by panic selling that kills the indexes by 5% or more? A vicious rally up recapturing Friday's losses? Who can say. I will venture a guesstimate of a pretty good "UP" day, about 150 points on the DOW. Tuesday may have a more important commentary on the stock market going forward, as Monday will be too closely watched to be real.
Friday was a rough session. The oil issue is not going away. The home price meltdown is not going away. Banking issues are not going away, though some banks may indeed go away! The FED has almost done away with their entire balance sheet.
The macro picture is so bad, that I feel that things like the stock market and data sets like unemployment do not reflect the situation. I think things are bad for the first time since the early 1980's and people are still in denial. We are getting closer though to realization.

Have a good night.

3 comments:

watchtower said...

Went to the BIG (well big for around here) city this weekend, went downtown to eat at the restaurant my wife and I have eaten at for 23 years and the place was as dead as I have ever seen it. I'll grant you that the resident baseball team was having an away game last night, but I have never seen it that empty.
Probably just a coincidence.
The hotel where we stayed had Friday's edition of "USA Today" on a rack and I looked at the "money" part and noticed some gloom and doom tidbits in there so the word is reaching out to people (like the $4.00 a gallon gas isn't getting their attention).

Ran across a post that suggest that a popping of the current oil bubble (which it looks to be, but I don't really know) could be trouble for the banks. Once again boiling down to leverage.

"The futures market is a ticking time bomb. If oil drops $40, it could turn into a catastrophe. The hedge funds would plunge into the abyss taking with them the banks. Congress could dust off the Glass-Segal act. It kept us out of trouble for 60 years."


http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Better hope this clowns doesn't get any traction.

"Right now, China, Russia, India and Saudi Arabia basically own the United States. Our economy is the real target of terrorists and this is our potential downfall," says Glynn. His solution is transparent and uncomplicated... a 10% solution. "If we are to prevent another Great Depression we need to pass one simple law: All pension plans, endowments, 401(k)s and the like will be required to allocate 10% of their portfolios to buy back U.S. debt and currency."

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2008/06/prweb961894.htm

If there is even a chance in hell of that happening get your money and run. Of course this would lead to no one in their right mind ever putting any money in any of these types of accounts again as they would be subject to government seizure.

As for the election Obama by a landslide, followed with tax the rich, rising protectionism, even more government spending, and a dollar collapse IMHOP.

Kevin

watchtower said...

Corn futures hit another record on Midwestern rain
By STEVENSON JACOBS, AP Business Writer
1 hour, 8 minutes ago

"NEW YORK - Corn futures extended their climb, rising to a record for a third straight session Monday as heavy rains flooded fields and battered crops in Midwestern states."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080609/ap_on_bi_ge/commodities_review

Like I was saying in an earlier post, it has rained a lot around here.
Did I invest accordingly? No

D'oh!