Friday, June 20, 2008

Glad The Worst Is Behind Us

I tried once again last night to get the wireless booster thingy I bought to work, but no dice. I must be honest when I say I HATE computer related stuff. It always seems to me that the design of all of it is complicated, not because it has to be, but because the loser geek types that make this crap like to make it that way. Whatever. I will have to decide this weekend what to try because my patience level is at absolute ZERO with this spotty internet deal. For only $120 a month you too can have useless internet usage! Thanks Comcast.

Richard Bove Still Making Sure He Stays in the News
There is a school of thought that any publicity, even bad, is good if it gets your name out there. While one can debate such thinking, one of Economic Disconnect's favorite analysts was out again today with a call on Citigroup (C):
UPDATE 1-Ladenburg's Bove widens 2008 loss view for Citigroup
Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Richard Bove widened his 2008 loss estimate for Citigroup Inc and cut his price target on the stock, after the largest U.S. bank said it could have substantial subprime write-downs in the second quarter.
Bove widened his 2008 loss estimate for the company to 36 cents a share from 19 cents and lowered his price target on the stock to $25 from $31.
The analyst said he sees another multi billion write-downs of Citigroup's super senior CDO (collateralized debt obligations) portfolio, which was marked down by about $6 billion in the first quarter, due to widening of spreads

More marks are expected on the subprime portfolio," Bove said, adding the $1.5 billion write-down due to the rating downgrades of monoline bond insurers might be matched by a similar write-down in the second quarter.
"Finally, there will be higher losses on the credit card portfolio and these losses will mount all year," said Bove, who maintained his "buy" rating on the stock based on the improved performance of Citigroup's core business and positive longer term outlook.

Richard Bove, welcome to reality. Mr. "financials are the at a generational buy" is singing a new tune. If the BSC guys can get indicted for lying, why not this dude? I have no idea. Compare the new Bove with the old Bove here:

Israel and Iran; What is Going On?
The buzz over the last week or so has involved a possible strike by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities. What is my position on such a thing? Glad you asked! While I really do not understand why countries like Iran (or the former Iraq, Pakistan, North Korea) think a nuclear weapon is some amazing thing. Perhaps as a bargaining chip I guess they could be. Iran is run by crazies, is full of crazies, and is crazy after that. So my position is if it is at all possible, they should not have a nuclear bomb. So is it possible?

Iran must have known that a US or Israeli strike would be forthcoming when building their reaciors, centrifuges, bomb centers, etc. These structures are likely hardened and underground. I fail to see a way that an air strike can get rid of them. On top of that, with the US intelligence agencies so great at getting things correct (joke obviously) how in the world are they gonna know where to hit? IS the Israeli intelligence THAT much better? Who knows. I say hit it if possible, but I don't see how it is possible. All this is likely noise and bluster. Lets hope so. I used to use the Stratfor page ans the Strategy page for military analysis, but both sites are so heavily full of adds and require subscriptions to view the good insider material that I hardly check them any more.

Glad The Worst Is Behind Us
Another rough one for the stock market today. The DOW fell below 12,000 again and this was a big fear for those technical analysis types. Aren't ypu glad the worst is behind us? I am kicking myself for not putting money to work on several short funds I wanted to try, I would have been up pretty good. Oh well I am a chicken, I mean I am good at CAPITAL PRESERVATION.

So what does this mean? Well, with the monoline insurer downgrade, there stands to be another 100 Billion to be written down in the near future. The housing situation is going to get worse over the summer. Banks are goingf to have a tough time of it. We know all of this, though it is fun to see some in the mainstream finally getting a clue! What is the action going forward?

I would hazard a guess that things may be sort of stuck for the summer. I would say range bound between 11,500-12,300 on the DOW seems about right. Certainly there is no reason to be in stocks, but there is way too many people that will want to play bottom catcher for a big downside risk. The upside will be capped as news flow will be just terrible. Volatility will continue to be high, but I feel pretty good about those ranges. If the DOW gets to the 11,500 area, I will buy some upside bets.

Friday Night Entertainment
It is the weekend, so let's get relaxed, or excited, or just entertained, yes?

Great BBQ Smoking Site
I came across this guy's smoker site today, and his process is so simple and the food looks so good it makes me want to buy a smoker and get to work. Check it out here:
I wonder what smoked prime rib tastes like? Anyone ever try it?

Science Corner
Cornstarch and water make a cool non-newtonian fluid that can behave as a solid under impact force, but liquid as ground phase. Check out these crazy guys:

Recombinant DNA technology is my job, it is what pays the bills for me. Here is a quick little video sombody made that is pretty good at shoing what I do:

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...


Interesting video of Recombinant DNA technology, I still ain't got a clue how you do it but it doesn't look like it's something a guy could hack out with a home chemistry set.

Don't know which way the markets going but looks like a bounce is about due.

credit savvy said...

a bounce indeed there

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