Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Califonia Leads the Way Back in Time

I still get cracked up when I read last night's post about the CNN show and the poor guy named Mark who is very stupid. Sometimes the best comedy is real life.

Delta Airlines and Northwest To Merge
I really do not care at all about the airlines. The travelling I have done has always been disappointing with regards to the flight and the entire airport experience. It is what it is. Will this merger make anything different? Probably not.

My main issue with the merger is that another mega company will have been made. It is hard to have innovation and real competition when there are no choices. Microsoft and Intel are excellent examples. A jumbo airline conglomerate will not help out the consumer I imagine. Oh well. I thought by now we were supposed to have flying cars anyway, what happened to that?

Lehman CEO Fuld says worst of credit crisis behind Wall Street and he is Right!
Another champ came out today and sealed his own removal at some point next year. Lehman CEO Richard Fuld decided to cast his lot with the "worst is over" crowd with his statement today. I actually agree with Mr. Fuld in his assessment, but not in the way he would like. Here is what I mean by the truth that "THE WORST IS BEHIND WALL STREET!":

The wall of water is clearly "behind" the poor man in the warning sign. I totally agree that the worst is behind Wall Street, and will soon overcome the attempts to ignore reality.

Califonia Leads the Way Back in Time
In a sense, the home price declines currently underway are like a time travel trip back in time. As prices retrace their parabolic rise of the boom we in effect are going back to prior price points in years gone past. Southern California seems to be leading the way in this regard (way to go Cali!) and have a look at this stunner from today:

"The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, the lowest since $380,000 in April 2004. Last month's median was down 5.6 percent from February's $408,000, and down a record 23.8 percent from $505,000 in February 2007. That peak median of $505,000 was reached several times last spring and summer."
Full article: http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA080415.aspx

So prices have retracted to the year 2004 levels. Ouchie! Now I realize there is some play at work here with the numbers as sales of foreclosed homes will drag the price down and skew the sample, but this is still a realistic price drop.

What date should homes have to go back to? It depends on the area. A good rule of thumb would be the 2000-2002 time frame before the really creative financing started to become outrageous. The banks should plug those prices into their models and see what that would mean for their financial position. Still think the worst is over Mr Fuld? You can change your mind!

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

US economy going into "eye of storm," Citi's Rhodes


Maybe CEO Richard Fuld hasn't been threw a lot of Hurricanes.


Anthony Green said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.