Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Dry Erase Board Musings

A bit short on time tonight, but what can you do? It might break 50 degrees here tomorrow! I may just pass out.

Home Prices Still Falling Basically Everywhere
I am sure the readers here have seen the new home price decline numbers as reported by the Case-Shiller index today. Good old Charlotte North Carolina showed an impressive 1.8% gain. Places like Phoenix and Miami are sporting amazing 15% plus losses year over year. Want to get an idea how much further prices could drop? Just take a look at some comments picked up in a Yahoo Finance article about the price drops:
AP
Home Price Drop Signals Tough Spring
Tuesday March 25, 5:48 pm ET By Vinnee Tong, AP Business Writer
Spring Home-Selling Season Could Disappoint if New Data on Falling Prices Is Indication
NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices plunged by record levels in January from a year ago, with almost no major cities immune from the spiraling market. Analysts worried that even the usually reliable spring selling season would fall flat.
In Las Vegas alone, nearly half the homes currently on the market have seen their prices reduced at least once, according to an analysis by ZipRealty, a discount real-estate firm.
Greg and Barbara Abbott have already cut the price twice on the two-bedroom condominium they are trying to sell on the Las Vegas strip. They're asking $669,900 now -- and an offer in the $650,000 range means they'll lose money.
Abbott thinks hesitant buyers don't realize how reasonable the current price is. "They're not really being realistic about what the place is worth," he said.

Rising foreclosures have become the biggest factor driving prices lower, Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said.
There were already too many homes on the market, and foreclosures bring even more property -- priced at a deep discount -- into the mix. Zandi said while prices are still falling steeply, demand seems to have stabilized.
"The psychology of the market has completely shifted," Zandi said. "Sellers do realize that homes are worth fundamentally less than they thought."

So we have the Abbott's, who are obviously illiterate and have not been informed of the mortgage mess and overpriced housing. They seem to think silly buyers are not aware what their Vegas condo is worth. Mr. Zandi in the same piece seems to think sellers indeed understand homes are not worth what they thought they would be. I say they have no idea. The sales number and prices seen right now are what the banks are getting for thier REO properties and foreclosures sales. Oblivious fools like the Abbotts have yet to get scared. Soon they will. When the average Joe runs for the doors prices will fall even further than anticipated.

Dry Erase Board Musings
When I am dealing with a complex project at work, I will employ the dry erase board to map out an experimental strategy to get the job done. Plenty of erasing and rewriting is done until a plan comes together. What kind of planning session may be going on at the banks right now? Lets put out a scenario that, due to FED overactive intervention, may be credible at this point.

Make a Run, then Walk the Stock Up
Say a huge investment bank or regular bank gets it's most influential and capitalized clients together. They isolate a few vulnerable smaller banks, whose exposure and liquidity issues they know well. Say they select one which is trading at $50. The group then aggressively shorts the common stock, while at the same time publishing reports calling into question said bank's solvency. After a while the concern spreads, and the stock falls to $20. The consortium then initiates a credit squeeze on the target bank, and margin calls to boot. The bank faces a collapse, and the irrational fear of "Financial Armageddon" crops up. The FED comes in to bail out the target bank, and sets up a deal with the guilty group to take over the target with full FED backing. The organized group can make big dollars by shorting the target to basically zero, then buying stock at the cheap before the FED bailout price is set at a higher level. Cleaning up on the way down and on the way up.

The wrinkle here is that the bailout MUST occur. The FED, by acting in a panic and in bad faith, has now provided credible evidence of the bailout intention. It would totally shock me if this kind of manipulation strategy has not at least found it's way onto some planning boards at several institutions. The law of unintended consequences due to inept FED actions.

Have a good night.

50 comments:

Anonymous said...

GYSC

This link doesn't have to do with the markets or the current state of affairs but thought you might find it interesting. Saw the first snake today a red racer about 18" long. Spring is on it's way.

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/0,5538,30046,00.html

Kevin

Anonymous said...

Hi dude! I am finally able to get to your site to check it out, and it looks great! ... economicdisconnect.blogspot.com And I cannot find... Send the information!
To whom is the link to the supplement for menopause necessary? [url=http://bestpharmacy.atwebpages.com/diazepam/bestpharm-4.html]25 diazepam mg [/url]
91971 - ys natural menopausecitrate sildenafil upsneurontin withdrawalcelexa withdrawlcyclobenzaprine overnight else [url=http://canadashoppharm.freehostia.com][/url] and [url=http://bestpharmacy.atwebpages.com/diazepam/map.html]Catalog pharmacy 2009 commercial lipitor[/url] . for attention thank you .

Anonymous said...

My iphone says i have a voicemail password, but I don't remeber putting one on. Can anybody help me find a way to reset it or delete it?
[url=http://forexrobot-review.info]best forex software[/url] [url=http://matrimoniale-romania.ro/forum/index.php?showuser=1251]unlock iphone[/url]

Anonymous said...

Buy [url=http://buy-cialis.icr38.net/Amaryl]amaryl online[/url] easy - Advantageous Price exelon online now - Colossal Offer

Anonymous said...

[size=72][color=red][url=http://www.go4you.net/go.php?sid=9]Pezda[/url][/color][/size]


[size=72][color=red][url=http://www.go4you.net/go.php?sid=9][/url][/color][/size]

Anonymous said...

Sale Free pills [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buybrandviagraonlineeasy]Buy Brand Viagra Online[/url] Buy Flagyl Online Order World shipping [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyultramonlineeasy]Buy Ultram Online[/url] Buy Viagra Professional Online
Cheap Online [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buynolvadexonlineeasy]Buy Nolvadex Online[/url] Buy Bactrim Online

Anonymous said...

RX Sale [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buytadaciponlineeasy]Buy Tadacip Online[/url] Buy Bactrim Online RX ED [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buysleepwellherbalxanaxonlineeasy]Buy Sleepwell Herbal Xanax Online[/url] Buy Prednisone Online
Free pills Free pills [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buypriloseconlineeasy]Buy Prilosec Online[/url] Buy Prilosec Online

Anonymous said...

Canadian Order [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buynolvadexonlineeasy]Buy Nolvadex Online[/url] Buy Norvasc Online Generic World shipping [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyultramonlineeasy]Buy Ultram Online[/url] Buy Norvasc Online
25mg 50mg [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyaugmentinonlineeasy]Buy Augmentin Online[/url] Buy Brand Viagra Online

Anonymous said...

Sale Order [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buybactrimonlineeasy]Buy Bactrim Online[/url] Buy Valium Online Cheap Free pills [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyvaliumonlineeasy]Buy Valium Online[/url] Buy Differin Online
Free pills World delivery [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buybrandlevitraonlineeasy]Buy Brand Levitra Online[/url] Buy Lipitor Online

Anonymous said...

Generic Canadian [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buybactrimonlineeasy]Buy Bactrim Online[/url] Buy Lipitor Online Discount Buy [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyprozaconlineeasy]Buy Prozac Online[/url] Buy Tramadol Online
Now Get [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyprednisoneonlineeasy]Buy Prednisone Online[/url] Buy Augmentin Online

Anonymous said...

50mg Order [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buysleepwellherbalxanaxonlineeasy]Buy Sleepwell Herbal Xanax Online[/url] Buy Cialis Soft Online Pharmacy Buy [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buyelavilonlineeasy]Buy Elavil Online[/url] Buy Prozac Online
Buy RX [url=http://stores.lulu.com/buysleepwellherbalxanaxonlineeasy]Buy Sleepwell Herbal Xanax Online[/url] Buy Cialis Super Active Online

Anonymous said...

[url=http://masamicroscope.info/overland+compound+microscopes+parts/]compound microscopes parts[/url] you people are really good nice to be here

Anonymous said...

Rczdek imdur ed yyQeSY nexium drug COMrVi karela discount WyKZAo ibuprofen world delivery MICwiO tentex royal discount XVuoGw elimite now aMvYTx levothroid world shipping

Anonymous said...

BNiQrD periactin pharmacy dUDUGD imitrex cheap jtTSRe dilantin world shipping rqXClF betoptic without prescription GSwXFM celebrex 10mg gvOPLI xeloda online XZXSWI sinequan order

Anonymous said...

DihlhO phenergan free pills ewbQkM albenza no prescription lRjaAF silagra no prescription nVZWxd codeine pharmacy cAnyHi microzide canadian GPOxHo reglan online iMueKV betoptic pharmacy

Anonymous said...

eZmDfx tulasi now VVPDMH tylenol pharmacy qKPJft phenergan 50mg vLglzP evista canadian DKTaxx omnicef sale HwIkYg diabecon canadian yDhOjS desyrel order

Anonymous said...

TLXMhP cialis super active world delivery nWNlsB levoxyl rx mLEtbr diflucan pharmacy sMqQXL trecator-sc 50mg ORYdDv adalat order jCyFuv styplon free pills RMCZto penegra no prescription

Anonymous said...

eDKIZFWvLX Casino Gambling Online oeIUBNk6Y Casino 2 lIYamTVcR Harrahs ieWGkyhST Hollywood Casino HrC8Din79J Snoqualmie Casino TXb1KjexrC Party Casino vVMm78YRpB Gold Casino cDtCmfBSNe Casino Gaming

Anonymous said...

i will keep updating and this is excellent forum [url=http://grillsnigh.info/napoleon_mirage_m485rbpss1_63_freestanding_bargains/]napoleon mirage m485rbpss1[/url]

Anonymous said...

i will keep updating and this is excellent forum [url=http://watcheszqqd.co.cc/orrum_citizen_eco_drive_wr200_titanium.html]citizen eco drive wr200 titanium[/url]

Anonymous said...

This is really good forum i love it a lot

Anonymous said...

I like this forum :) [url=http://treadmillvxyk.co.cc/sears+proform+500i+treadmill+kit+carson.html]sears proform 500i treadmill[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://strolleruxkq.co.cc/salcha+bob+ironman+stroller+craigslist.html]bob ironman stroller craigslist[/url] i will keep updating and this is excellent forum

Anonymous said...

[url=http://ktjzpapershredder.co.cc/ramah-where-to-buy-a-audora-paper-shredder.html]where to buy a audora paper shredder[/url] i will keep updating and this is excellent forum

Anonymous said...

i will keep updating and this is excellent forum [url=http://dmxucooking.co.cc/waring+wco250+george.html]waring wco250[/url]

Anonymous said...

I just wanted to check in here and say hello!
this is a great forum, ive read a lot of great things.

Ive been lurking around mostly, but finally decided to join and post.
Look forward to being a part of the community.

my main question is, does this forum have a memberslist?
im looking for a specific member and do not really know how to find them, thanks

Anonymous said...

alcohol beverage marketing at retail http://alcoholboutique.com/sunrise-carmenere-red-wine.html how does alcohol increase serotonin [url=http://alcoholboutique.com/van-gogh-espresso-vodka.html]alcohol slows healing[/url] alcohol on college campuses

Anonymous said...

lc and brody jenner dating again http://loveepicentre.com/articles.php dating in ann arbor

Anonymous said...

insane clown posse dating gamwe http://loveepicentre.com/map.php dating sim game online

Anonymous said...

indonesian dating site http://loveepicentre.com/testimonials.php is freddie highmore dating

Anonymous said...

macon georgia dating http://loveepicentre.com/ gay dating plenty of fish

Anonymous said...

passtrak series 6 software http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/fr/category-3/Graphiques-et-Publication acquires pharma software [url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/category-200-208/Office-Tools]other software to use with ipod[/url] computer aided software engineering
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/es/news-40/Opera-Releases-Beta-of-Android-Browser]Opera Releases Beta of Android Browser - Cheap Legal OEM Software, Software Sale, Download OEM[/url] best internet secuirty software
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/es/product-37364/Video-DVD-Maker-PRO-3-9][img]http://buyoem.co.uk/image/2.gif[/img][/url]

Anonymous said...

blue chip software labs http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/es/product-37349/Ultra-Video-Joiner-5-6 best software download sites [url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/fr/category-200-213/Logiciel-de-musique]game scripts software[/url] gasboy 1000 software upgrade
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/product-18302/Bookdog-Mac]Bookdog [Mac] - Download OEM, Software Sale, OEM Software[/url] computer time set software
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/product-37102/Alabe-Reports-Complete-Relationship-1-1][img]http://buyoem.co.uk/image/4.gif[/img][/url]

Anonymous said...

gps software log8 http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/category-200-214/Other?page=1 computer jump software start [url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/it/product-31618/MovCaptioner-3-6-MAC]system analyst job in satyam software[/url] best cd authoring software
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/search]Search - Software Store[/url] website picture download software
[url=http://buysoftwareonline.co.uk/fr/product-31547/LittleSnapper-1-5-MAC][img]http://buyoem.co.uk/image/1.gif[/img][/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://onlinemedistore.com/products/amoxil.htm][img]http://onlinemedistore.com/10.jpg[/img][/url]
canada pharmacy puplic buying laws http://onlinemedistore.com/products/yasmin.htm cvs villa rica ga pharmacy [url=http://onlinemedistore.com/products/viramune.htm]muslim pioneers contribution to the profession of pharmacy[/url]
pharmacy usa http://onlinemedistore.com/products/eurax.htm worlds fair pharmacy 11355 [url=http://onlinemedistore.com/products/finpecia.htm]finpecia[/url]
pharmacy drugs online valium http://onlinemedistore.com/products/femara.htm marchese pharmacy in hamilton ontario [url=http://onlinemedistore.com/products/relafen.htm]albany college of pharmacy[/url]
biggs pharmacy http://onlinemedistore.com/products/singulair.htm doctorate in pharmacy and health services [url=http://onlinemedistore.com/products/differin.htm]differin[/url]

Anonymous said...

Louis Vuitton Bags sale 518085 Louis Vuitton Bags store 419428 Burberry Outlet 627833 http://chanelhandbagsonsale.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Louis Vuitton Handbags 45843 discount christian louboutin 99112 Hermes Bags on sale 974177 http://chanelhandbagsonsale.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

oZzy moved away some time ago, I miss his cock, and i am always
hungry for sexual intercourse.
FUCK MY PUSSY!

My web blog - hcg injections

Anonymous said...

Hermes Bags 750454 Hermes Outlet 114023 Chanel Handbags 740579 http://discountlouisvuittonbags.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Hermes online 35164 Cheap Gucci Bags 248288 Gucci Bags online 905711 http://guccihandbagsforcheap.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Cheap Gucci Bags 797022 Hermes Bags on sale 382866 Gucci Handbags for cheap 905136 http://guccihandbagsforcheap.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Louis Vuitton Handbags 819148 Gucci Handbags 628736 Burberry Bags 496048 http://guccihandbagsforcheap.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Burberry Handbags outlet 349301 Louis Vuitton Bags store 851728 Hermes Birkin 253745 http://cloutlets.webs.com/

Anonymous said...

Burberry Bags clearance 350847 Cheap Burberry Bags 167467 Hermes Bags on sale 28420 http://discountlouisvuittonbags.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

louboutin 299697 Chanel Handbags 537943 Louis Vuitton Bags store 338120 http://cheaplouboutinshoes.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

Hermes Belts 947156 Chanel Outlet 403544 cheap christian louboutin shoes 985838 http://christian--louboutinoutlet.webs.com/

Anonymous said...

Gucci Handbags online 139078 Burberry Handbags 616604 Louis Vuitton Outlet 77429 http://guccioutletonline.cabanova.com/

Anonymous said...

http://ocean-news.com/enewsletter/buytramadol/index.php?page=3 tramadol kick in time - tramadol 37.5 get high

Anonymous said...

Nіce poѕt. I was checking continuοusly this blog anԁ I am impгeѕsеd!
Εxtremelу uѕеful information ѕpecifіcally the lаst рагt :) I care
foг ѕuch information much. I ωas seeking thiѕ paгticular infoгmatiοn fоr a long time.
Thank you anԁ gоοd luck.

Also visit my web-ѕіte weight loss meal plan

Anonymous said...

the best online dating sites 2008 http://loveepicentre.com/articles/ widowers dating advice
wildcat12788 dating photo profile [url=http://loveepicentre.com]heart dating[/url] london dating sites
dating mtof [url=http://loveepicentre.com/articles/]online dating portland oregon tenis partner[/url] intj and dating [url=http://loveepicentre.com/user/happydd/]happydd[/url] dating chat rooms for teens