Showing posts with label economic horror. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic horror. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

THE HORROR!!!!

Ok, my internet is crap due to crazy harsh thunderstorms. An actual tornado made landfall in southern Massachusetts (Springfield) and there is substantial damage. I am on the north side of the state, so hopefully things will quiet down soon.

Deck Staining
My last major house project that I will be doing myself before I reserve weekends for mainly fishing will be staining my deck. It is now weathered in enough to take stain (second year). I am overwhelmed with all I have read so if you have some simple advice and ideas, by all means HELP ME!

THE HORROR!!!!
Sometimes I think this stuff gets too funny, pure comedy even.

By now most readers will be aware economic data has been getting softer and showing signs of a real slow down. A real slow down from a mediocre level to be sure, but still a slow down. The housing market is still a mess and will be for years as I have written about many times. This impairs the banks, and the banking sector (XLF) was murdered again today. I cannot cover all the data, you know where it is.

A while back I wrote my plan to trade this market should my idea that a serious correction in stocks was on the way. I postulated in this post what the levels I am watching are. It's all there. Today's action feeds that story, but the S&P still closed above 1307, where I was going to get very interested in going short. My trigger is far lower, at S&P 500 1280.

So some flaccid data and a one day drop in the markets are enough to make the safety pin holding Wall Streets diaper up come undone. This CNBC story is something you are going to have to get used to; that and lower stock prices to get the FED to do "something":
Horror for US Economy as Data Falls off Cliff
That is NOT a Zero Hedge headline, but a CNBC lead off. A cliff? Really? Anyways, relevant section from Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London. :
"And right now, the economic data is suggesting that however measly you may think a 3 percent yield is on a 10-year Treasury, the yield should probably be a fair bit lower given what’s going on in the US economy," said Riddell.
"You’ve also got to wonder at what point the markets for risky assets start noticing, too."
"QE3 anybody?" asks Riddell.
It is already starting.

There are a number of writers that I respect very much that feel the FED is done. Some think politically they cannot keep on with QE. There may be other reasons, even that it is not needed. I cannot disagree more. Quantitative easing has always been a outright promise to back speculation (not just in silver) but across all asset types. It has worked. Now it once again at the end and that support is really taken as a given here. If the FED is all done and explicitly says so, my 10% down targets are going to be conservative. How much off the top does a finished and on the sidelines FED take from markets? I don't think it can or will happen. What do you think?

Have a good night.