Open Thread

Heat has returned!!! Super muggy here and hot. In the Boston area we would say it is a "skortcha!".

Get your Friday Night requests in as well, we need a good show.

Open Thread
Another ugly day, I can't really recount it all. I posted this last year on November 3rd, 2010 when QE 2.0 went into effect:
"QE has been ineffective in much of anything useful. It has set a real bid under commodities and equities, but those are not reflected in the CPI anyway.

The yield curve will remain steep which will aid the banks in case mortgage losses and putbacks end up not being solved through legislation due to the new makeup of CONgress.

So what does this all mean?

Short Term (next 8 months or so)
-equities will rise
-commodities will rise
-gold and silver will rise
-junk yields will soar

Basically what you have seen for a while will continue on. I can see a scenario where a monster move up occurs in stocks to a blow off top, but I think it will more of the stair step 1% days as far as the eye can see kind of thing. Commodities may see a more violent surge. This is not a good thing but it may support aggregate demand if folks try to stock oil in tanks under their home. You have heard of contango, right?

What can you do? Well, savings are trash and cash is dead. It has been and I had hoped for a more sane policy and reform but then I am a fool. Some ideas:
-Past a POMO day schedule near your desk and if you can day trade move with the POMO schedule as detailed many places like Zero Hedge. One note: this has been so obvious and written about the real players may try and move this around a bit but the vicinity will remain.
-Buy broad equity indices and hold them.
-Buy junk bonds
-Buy bad muni bonds
This is almost Tepper-esque in the "can't lose" sense.

This is not advice. Here is what I aim to do.

I am going to really spend some time looking at buys that I can stomach. This will exclude broad indices and in particular anything financial, housing, or US automotive. I am looking to start trying to get some return on my money that I can play with, plus it would be more fun.

To this end I am using my own way of looking for buys and I will be buying and testing the iBankCoin PPT as another tool. I will test some ideas out on the thing and see how it fits my way of trading. I hope it proves useful.

Long Term (who cares, we are all dead right?)
This move serves as a start of a long term commitment by the FED to markets for support without end. While this did not work well for Japan, things are a bit different here. Nothing over the next year will really get much better in the real economy, but that hardly matters when banks are making serious coin, corporations can get money on the ultra cheap to buy back shares, and expansion overseas where much of the free cash will be deployed will prove a hit."

And here we are today. Not much to add.

Open thread night then. Ask me about anything you want me to answer or talk about and I will tonight in the comments or in this post. If I miss anything I can get to it tomorrow night. If you are on Twitter, find me with @GYSC16, same avatar.

Have a good night.

Open Thread Monday

There has certainly been plenty to keep an eye on over the last two weeks. I will be doing homework on market screens tonight, so I am leaving this post as an open thread.

Leave a comment and ask a question, offer ideas, discuss what ever you like. I will check in during the evening.

Added:
I like SHW and RPM here.

And by popular demand (the whole thing is funny) but go to the 1:30 mark for some real fun:


One can dream the animals get along like this:


Have a good night.

Sunday Night Open Thread

I have just 2 days at work this week so that will be very nice. I am off until January!! I am posting this open thread item so I can collect ideas on what the readers may like to see this holiday week. Drop any ideas or requests in the comments section.

NFL Action
-On Saturday night the Dallas Cowboys had perhaps their most complete game this year as they beat the New Orleans Saints in convincing fashion. If the Cowboys can play at that focus level they will not be a team anyone wants to play in the playoffs. The Saints are still in great shape after the loss, but the defense was pushed around last night so they will have to get mean.
-The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills is a lackluster effort and then got all the help they will need when both the Miami Dolphins and the NY Jets lost their games. The Patriots can cement a playoff spot with one win in their last 2 games. They cannot improve to better than the 4th seed unless they get help.
-Still some games going on right now with the Bengals/Chargers game being the biggest contest.

Good Question
Yves Smith wonders why there has never been any investigation into all things AIG:

Why has there been NO serious investigation of ANY kind of the recipient of such extraordinary taxpayer largesse? Why has virtually NOTHING been demanded of them? Why the unseemly rush to let them off the hook and let them “pay back the TARP”? This is completely unwarranted in the case of AIG, which has had its deal with the government retraded in AIG’s favor a full four times. Why has AIG at every turn gotten a better and better deal, each time at the public’s expense, and is now allowed to lobby that it should be freed of its obligations? No private sector lender would allow a troubled borrower that could not meet its commitments to renegotiate and get IMPROVED terms. The inability to meet the terms of the original funding (one on terms private sector lenders were willing to consider, and that per Sorkin, AIG itself proposed) only strengthens the case to continue with the original plan, which is to break up AIG and sell the pieces for what they can fetch. This is the course that would yield the highest returns to the public, and that program will not produce a systemic event, which should be the ONLY offsetting consideration. There is no business rationale to have an agglomeration of diverse insurance businesses, particularly one that has been as badly managed as AIG (Sorkin’s account also reveals a shocking lack of financial and operational controls).

This is a key issue. Under the banner of "we cannot hurt confidence" nothing has been, nor will ever, be disclosed about all of these bailouts. I would think rational people could conclude that if indeed the system could not survive if the full scale of how deeply messed up things are was openly discussed then by definition the system cannot survive. That is rational. Instead you get a market rally. Good stuff.

Have a good night.

Thursday Night Open Thread

I have some extra computer time tonight and I am going to use it to research a few things, as well as polish off an Economic Disconnect Christmas list for Mrs. Disconnect. I am a huge Christmas and Birthday supporter and it is like in the film "The Godfather" during the daughter's wedding, I cannot refuse a request!

I am going obscure for myself this year and am looking for some vintage Grendizer and Gaiking Japanese robot anime DVD's. Maybe even some Star Blazers. They just do not make cartoons like they used to.

That said, I will checking in during the evening, and half watching the NFL game between the 49ers and the Bears. Your mission, should you choose to accept is.....

-What are you watching right now? What seems ready to move?
-What area of economics is most important to you?
-What item has been beat to death?
-What item(s) have been overlooked?
-Any new (or old) sites that you are finding have great content?
-What's on your mind?

Let it all out, you will feel better.

As always, Friday night is the usual entertainment, so please leave ideas or requests in the comments. If shy about a pick, use the contact email.

Have a good night.