Battle of Helms Deep

Plenty to discuss so let's just do it.

Market Operations
During the day today I made two buys. The first was YMI based on some candle work I did last night. I should have seen it as "Why am I" buying stocks today! This one actually held up ok and did not violate the candle that I had decided to buy on.

The second was another candle and PPT scoring find, OCZ. Quite a bit of "other" stuff going on with this stock including a conference call tonight. Will keep an eye on it. No reason to get way long right now.

Battle of Helms Deep

Today after the market close I was driving home from Cambridge and a huge rain storm with dark clouds blew in. Reminded me of that scene in "The Lord of the Rings" before The Battle of Helms Deep when the rain starts falling.

By now you must know that markets took a dive today and it was not pretty. Significant damage to long running trendlines was done. Major moving averages were breached. Chart for S&P 500 for a look:

So where are things?

I wish I knew. I will offer up my own ideas and then do some linking to better observers than me to round it out. Here is what I think:
-Volume was not the massive dump off that usually comes from a panic bottom. This could mean things are not as bad as they look, or a bigger washout is at hand.
-Time was efforts in Washington usually were a good thing. The FED is really on the spot at the end of August.
-I love technical analysis and use it for near term trading. One of my only reservations about TA is it reflects everything that the market knows right now. Unfortunately the market tends to ignore stuff for a long time and then discover it. Chaos ensues.
-Along that line slowing economic data has been ignored as price action has been good. Price action is not good now.

In general I think it will be smart to watch the next few days. Obviously getting involved is risky. I would rather miss the next 5-7% move up in the indices and wait for a real trend to emerge that try to stick a bottom call here and get washed out. Many will try though.

Linkage
The best stuff I saw today.

The Fly tells it like it is, in his unique style:

"If this market trades down tomorrow, that will make 9 straight days down. This is a KARL DENNINGER, ZEROHEDGE, DOUBLE BLUE BLAZER, APOCALYPTIC dive lower, no safety net. If you are a bear, this is your chance to kill everyone and eat their brains. You must pray for state failures and civil wars, famine and pestilence. Throw in a little epidemic, and I believe this market can go lower."

Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown have been getting lighter on holdings as of late. Thanks for the tip.

Downtowntrader has advice I find to be spot on:

"Even if the markets do bounce in the next few days, the odds for a flush out first are probably better than your odds at a Casino. While it appears the worst is behind us in this debt deal nonsense, the markets showed very little strength today and futures are flat tonight. Until they show some semblance of strength, its best to keep your exposure to a minimum."

Three notes from me via Twitter today:
-With all the news of spanish and italian wide spreads one would think economics was actually sexy.
-I find it better to observe bottoms instead of picking them, even if itchy to do it.
-Today confirmed the feared over the shoulder double boulder holder pattern and you KNOW what that means....

Stay sharp folks.

Is Nothing Sacred from the Robot Revolution?
While we are concerned about debt defaults and imploding markets, I cannot allow the robot revolution to go unnoticed. To temp children and girls alike, a fire breathing pony robot is a threat to us all (via Geekologie):

Oh my.

Added:
MUST See video, this cat saw today's close:
Thriller Dance Kitteh

Have a good night.

Action Review and Weekly Decisions

Still hot here! Tomorrow will top out over 100 degrees. Going to hit the beach on Saturday and hope to get into the cold North Atlantic ocean.

Tomorrow is Friday night and you know that means requests are honored for the big show; music, films, books, you name it but you have to submit a request in the comments or by email.

Action Review and Weekly Decisions
This week I was thinking about all the kinds of traders there are. You can do most anything from scalping a few pennies on a monster position in a liquid stock within seconds to holding a position for 10 years or more. Everyone has to find what works for them.

For most of my assets readers know I am a long term holder of things I think will move up long term. Minimal turnover and time spent managing those things, I like that for the most part. With my trading account I do like to pick spots and see if I can find winners, but the daily in and out is not possible time wise, so my basic set up is to find stocks I can play for about 4-7 days and then make a decision on whether to keep them or dump them. I call this kind of trading predictive trading where I am looking for a set move and set target area before it happens. Reactive trading to me is seeing something happening then piling on or riding the wave. Nothing wrong with that, but not my kind of fun.

This week I also did something not like my usual style, I got pretty nasty aggressive on a risky position. chessNwine had an interesting call in the 12631 on Friday about the semiconductor sector. Both the thesis and chart were attractive and when I thought more about it sector rotation into semi's made so much sense I was in. Best way to go bananas? Why the 3X leveraged bull semiconductor ETF SOXL of course! And with a large part of the trading account to boot. Lack of beer makes me more risk seeking I think, weird. I bought on Friday and I am still holding today. Up over 8% so far. Do not try this at home.

Added: Please note the charts tonight are not the same detail I like to present. I used the freestockcharts.com camera function but it compresses the charts so much. It's quicker than using the sniping tool, but the lack of detail even on the larger versions if you click them suck. Sorry about that.

Plays I made this week include a day loss of 3% on GPRO (poor headline killed the stock this week) and the following ideas:
CSU +7%:

Getting close to decision time on this one, was looking for 10% but may be getting extended here.

GFIG +4%:

I actually think this one could have some legs to it.

I am still in ASYS for 0% move, this has to move tomorrow or I am dumping it.

I missed out on NI this week, you can't buy them all:

Had I bought at $20.40 like I wanted to, I would be up 4% on this one. Bangs head on wall.....

Looking to make some room for new ideas next week.

Ok, time for my first beer in 10 days!!!!!

Have a good night.

Asked and Answered

We are in a major heat wave up here in Massachusetts. Looks to be over 100 degrees tomorrow then add in humidity. I like the heat but this is going to be a little too much. Stay cool!

Market Operations
Quiet day overall in the markets. Still holding GFIG, CSU, ASYS and the semiconductor play. Intel (INTC) beat earnings but the stock is falling this evening on last look. The semiconductor play is still alive as it is an overall rebound call on the entire sector, not just the big companies. We shall see.

Asked and Answered
From time to time I find it refreshing to get an outside opinion on things economic. For that I tend to interview my dog, Norman the Pug. His insights are highly valued and it never hurts to get a new pair of eyes (googly ones at that) to look at things.

Last May Norman granted an exclusive interview and after some convincing he has agreed to once again offer his wisdom to the world. What a dog.

Here we go!

GYSC: Hello again Pug, thanks for taking the time.
Pug: Hard up for material again huh? Geez all that tapping on keys has real benefits.
GYSC: Let's keep this civil, yes?
Pug: If you say so. Please begin, it's your milkbone.

GYSC: Last May you said that a Euro breakup was impossible, and yet here we are in July 2011 and Greece looks ready to fall. Thoughts?
Pug: Has Greece left the Euro?
GYSC: No.
Pug: So I was right. Not going to happen. I hope we have some new questions tonight.
GYSC: What is your take on Social Media and all the excitement over names like Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Groupon?
Pug: Humans like to feel important; they like to feel that people give a hoot what they are up to. Social Media fills that need. All I need is some food and a blanket and I am good to go.
GYSC: What about the benefits of greater communication? Greater connectivity?
Pug: This from the guy that pretends he is on vacation if his mother calls! Communication, that's rich!
GYSC: Come on...
Pug: Ok, what you have is a creation that has resonated with people. What has really brought the excitement? All the talk about how great these things are, that's what. Add in the never ending drama over how much a social media issue will price over it's IPO offering and you have a combustible brew.
GYSC: What about a Groupon dog biscuit offering?
Pug: Well that may be ok.
GYSC: Fickle much?
Pug: Not since this morning.
GYSC: What? Nevermind. Lets move on.
Jessie the Cat: This is so boring!

Pug: No one is talking to you evil spirit!

GYSC: What about making money trading the market? With all the chop going on what advice do you have for the readers?
Pug: Compression.
GYSC: How do you mean?
Pug: Sentiment is all over the place, volume is way low, and a small number of "big"stocks tend to decide market direction. You have to compress your time frames down into smaller scales to capture trends if you are moving in and out. Longer term holders should just ignore the chop.
GYSC: Wow, that was a value added answer!
Pug: Better than what you do.
GYSC: And what is that?
Pug: I thought you were making a wig when you pulled all that hair out looking at computer screens with your stock losers, I mean picks up.
GYSC: Well that was that one time when that stock flashed crashed on me....
Pug: Excuses are like squeaky toys fool, everybody has a bin of them.

GYSC: Do any reading lately?
Pug: Well I did check out this book written by Twits or something:

GYSC: What did you think?
Pug: The biographies were interesting, yet no one mentioned having a pug.
GYSC: Well, I don't think that was the purpose of the book.
Pug: Well, you cannot trust a person without a dog, or if they just have a cat.
GYSC: How insightful, amazing really.
Pug: Thanks, the wisdom flows like waterfalls through the jungle or some crap.
GYSC: Nice. Ok, final question; Will the S&P 500 be higher in December than right now?
Pug: What is this, the price is right? Higher it will be, bet you a box of biscuits on it.
GYSC: How high?
Pug: Never give a time frame AND price silly man. I just said higher that's all. We have a bet?
GYSC: You are on like Donkey Kong!
Pug: Oh, someone save me....

Summer Dinner
Made lump charcoal grilled kielbasa tonight:

Sliced it up and mixed with rice pilaf, very good and a very summer dinner.

Have a good night.

747 Taking Off, or There Goes Another Load?

The air here was so heavy today it was like a blanket. Pretty gross and sticky. Doctor visit went very well, I am cleared for all normal activities, such that they are. Green light on beer as well, come to papa Thursday night!

Market Operations
Last night I went over the stocks that I was going to consider playing this week. The morning open brought a nasty drop which complicates buying positions. Looking things over I pulled the trigger on CSU at $8.90. Both NI and WM still are on watch, but the weak day overall kept me from getting aggressive. Turnaround Tuesday may happen tomorrow and so I can rethink an entry at that time. Other names I am interested in for tomorrow:
-ASYS
-GPRO
I still hold GFIG.

747 Taking Off, or There Goes Another Load?
Today reminded me of a passage from the short story "Rage" by Stephen King:

'High school toilets are all the same; they sound like 747's taking off. I've always hated pushing that handle. It makes you sure that the sound is clearly audible in the adjacent classroom and that everybody is thinking: Well, there goes another load.'

You are probably asking if this is all going to make sense. It might.

At this point the markets are all over the place. Big rallies give way to sustained selling. Selling gets mauled by fast rocket ship rallies. This is a sign of a real tussle between the bullish and not so bullish (I may cut bears from my vocabulary). One of my least favorite aspects of things economic is the glacial pace of movement and the Kid Dynamite maple syrup dripping slowness of market resolution.

As such, I am sticking to my plan of trading individual names and maybe sectors while the general market goes all Royal Rumble on itself. If earnings come in good and some kind of can kicking can be done for Euro debt and the US debt ceiling, today may have marked a bottom where the 747's are cleared for takeoff. Markets can finally trend higher.

The financials are looking dead and should forward guidance sound the wrong note, well, there could be a big WHOOOOOSH and that will be the market getting flushed for the rest of the summer.

How is that for a stance? Maybe this, maybe that. I want to put my foot down here, but it's really in flux. I wish I could feel strong one way or the other.

For a great big picture technical view, I would strongly encourage anyone interested in the markets to check out iBankCoin's chessNwine with the market recap video from today:
Stock Market Recap 7/18/2011
It's the best 5 minutes you can use this evening to get a handle on where things are.

I have long held that for QE 3 to be rolled out a significant market drop would have to occur. Recent action does not even come close. How about a scare to get the debt ceiling done? Two for one? Be mindful out there.

Have a good night.

Recovery Friday

A Friday night without beers, I think I was in second grade the last time I did not have a beer on Friday night!

Market Operations and Observations
I did some work last night using the iBankCoin PPT because I am feeling better than I have in two weeks. I built a new screen that I think will be pretty cool. I did not find a stock that was quite what I was looking for (screens reset every day) but a close one was GFIG. I figured close enough and opened a position today. Maybe over the weekend I will go over what I was looking for.

I opened another position today, but this one was 100% based on a great observation, then a big time call by the best market operator I know. The idea was found in the iBankCoin 12631 Premium section of the PPT so I cannot disclose what it was, it is a paid service. Should the maker of the call disclose it later next week, I will let you know what it was. It was a long position.

A couple of observations today. The first was a chart found at TRB and FT Alphavillewhich showed that after fake AAA rated debt about killed the financial system a couple years back, it is now moving down in size exploding in size as sovereign debt goes parabolic. In case you don't know, sovereign debt is the old toxic debt just bought by central banks but masked as newly rolled out AAA stuff. Unreal, games only real adults can play with the lights on. Here is the chart:

Eggsalent.

Second observation is from an article on Minyanville that finally captures what I think has been so strange about markets since the big bottom in 2009. Ask Atlantic Capital Management:

It used to be said that stocks climb a wall of worry under constant pressure of potential bad news that could derail the risk appetite of a broad spectrum of the investor class. When bad news came, corrections used to be much sharper and far more compressed than the upward moves that preceded them.

In so many ways, we are now living out a Far Side cartoon, including the general inversion of process and logic. For six consecutive weeks, stock sellers rode the wall of worry; not over news, but over the idea of missing out on the next massive rally. That downward trend was the cautious move, the slowly developing inclination developed by actual data. Rather than the traditional trend of investors deploying capital capriciously and carefully, yanking it out quickly at the first sign of trouble, we now see investors sell carefully at a very measured pace and then rapidly buy at the first sign of a potential rally. Just like bad news that used to jolt the old market into correction, Greece happened to get “fixed” and stocks were off to the races.

Worth thinking about.

Friday Night Entertainment
Is it really July 15th already?

Screen Test
With the "Harry Potter" films wrapping up now may be a good time to check out a screen test for the 3 major stars back when they were just little kids:
Io9: Harry Potter Screen Test

Debt Ceiling
If the debt ceiling is not raised, this will happen and there will be tanks on the street and stuff:

see more funny videos, and check out our Yo Dawg lols!

For Josh Brown and Dinosaur Trader
If I could submit a tune for the TRB Mixtape Section, this would be my pick:

For shizzle.

High Speed Internet
Reader Watchtower has joined the new era and upgraded to high speed Internet. Welcome to the monster cable bill world bro! He must have been using it to answer the trivia last week as he won a copy of "Creep" (shipping in the morning). Anyways, Watchtower is armed with a new power, what should he watch?

Here is a quick list:
-Hagler vs. Hearns Round 1
-Hagler vs Leonard Round 9 (skip to 6:54 mark)
-Ward vs. Gatti Round 9
-Randy Rhoads does Revelation Mother Earth on the Tribute album. Entire song is magic, but go to the 4:50 mark to get crazy!
That should get you started.

Films and Stuff
Couple clips.

One of my all time favorite films is "3 O' Clock High". In this scene the "wimp" Jerry Mitchell hires the school football jock to fight the bully, Buddy Revell. It does not go as planned:

Yes, that's Charlie form "Young Guns".

How about the wormhole scene from "Contact"?:

Nice.

Rock Blogging
Rock for the ages.

My friend Au Soleil Levant is the toughest person I know. It happens to be her birthday today and so she gets the lead off spot. Why don't the readers swing on by and drop a happy birthday message? I am sure it would mean a lot.

For the birthday girl, The Dixie Chicks perform "Some Times You Gotta Dance":

Happy Birthday!

Gawains was looking for "Out on the Weekend" by Neil Young and it's a good one:


Seeing that we had some live Ozzy/Randy above, here is the studio version of "S.A.T.O":


Short show tonight. Had this up a while ago, but heard it today so you are stuck with "Jar of Hearts" by Christina Perri:

Wow.

Have a good night.

Back at It

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July!  Thunderstorms are moving through right now, and the cooler air is very nice. 

Had a cookout on Saturday and it was fun!  I got a bit busy and did not take many pictures, but here are the baby back ribs before and after:

Came out pretty good.

Back at It
It would only figure that when I was taking a break from market stuff, everything goes nuts to the upside. One of the biggest multi-day rally's ever happened last week. While there could have been some low volume games and "window-dressing" going on, the panic buying as I like to call it was everywhere.

It is hard to enter a market that has been running so hot. Conventional wisdom would be for some side ways action or even a pull back. My feeling is that the upside party is not over, and we could see a couple more 1-1.5% broad moves up early in the week. So what to do?

Homework. I will go to work using the PPT screener and find the best looking set ups as I can. If everything looks good then I can go ahead, but with an eye towards broad market trends. Obviously I don't want to chase any names up 10-15% over the last week. Missed that boat.

Anyways, good luck getting back into the week.

Have a good night.

The Easy Solution

Had a crazy "work on the house" day. Moved tons of furniture that we are getting rid of out to the garage, of course most of it was on the second floor and had to be brought downstairs. Mowed the front and back lawns because it was finally dry for like 3 hours today, woo hoo. Cleaned up the den area where the magic of Economic Disconnect get done. Finally settling in for the evening. The open of "True Blood" is tonight and my wife is a monster fan so I will be watching that in case Anna Paquin is naked again, lol.

The Easy Solution
I was thinking about this Greece debt thing and it finally hit me what the easy fix is. Good thing is not only will this work for every other problem the markets are having, but it has already been used to great effect as well. I have no idea why this has not happened yet.

So Greece is having issues because they are broke and spend too much and take in too little. Who doesn't? The problem is Greece is part of the Euro and so cannot just print their way to prosperity, but must work withing the Euro framework. As Geek debt can only be issued to "real" investors at rates that are far to high (over 10% on the 5 year I think) for the country to pay, the ECB (Euro Central Bank) makes their own loans to Greece at low rates (more around 3-5%) by issuing new money and other games. This way Greece can take longer to not be able to pay and by some miracle maybe will be able to years later.

So why not just cut out the process of it all? In the new world market, Germany pays say 2% for 5 year debt, so Greece should pay 4% because they are having issues. By decree the "market" price for Greek debt can only be sold at 4%! Problem solved! This can work for any problem out there where a free market is saying risk is not being paid for, just eliminate that entirely.

But GYSC, won't the bond vigilantes get mad? Won't market players shun Greek debt because of the risk and not making enough to justify it? They can try it. But where else are they going to go with their cash? They will take what they are told and like it, especially if a guarantee is behind it. If we are going to play fairy land pretend, we might as well get to it in size.

By various routes all debt is being artificially fixed at some price not set by free markets anyway, so let's just stop all the games. The central banks of the world can set prices wherever they feel is correct, and market players can take it or leave it. If they leave it in droves, the central banks just buy it all anyway, so there is no difference here. The Greek debt games is a sick pantomime of silliness anyways, why not take it to the next level? I am right about this because anyone using their own money will not loan to Greece, but the ECB/IMF will buy all the debt anyway. The Parliament vote is a joke, makes no difference what those clowns do, this is going on.

Market Operations
It is homework night but I think I would have to see what happens tomorrow before I could place positions anyway. Tonight I will work out a watch list with targets and ideas, then tomorrow see what I think will work. I am still in SH and PSQ, and made a nice win on MAKO this week. It's annoying but a bunch of the stocks I worked on over the last 2 Sundays have popped really nice (WSTLA, HNSN, CNU) but what can you do.

Have a good night.

Wachusett Reservoir

I did actually make it out fishing today! I got a late start after waking up late and doing the grocery store run. I did not feel like loading up the Kayak and the Merrimack River is still pretty high, so I took aim at the best smallmouth bass water for fish of size in Massachusetts, The Wachusett Reservoir.

Wachusett is a large lake, and it is connected to The Quabbin Reservoir by an underground aqueduct. I found these two pictures of the monster dam at one end of Wachusett, you used to be able to fish around the dam but they do not allow anyone near that area after 9-11 anymore:

Looking at the face of the dam a ways back:

Would you want to live in the homes just below the dam!!!?? Not me.

Anyways, this reservoir is tough to fish. No boats or canoes allowed, only shore fishing. This is hard because the way the reservoir was made, the water gently slopes out as it gets deeper, but it does not get really deep until after about 100 feet away from shore. Of course all the big fish are located off the deep points way out there. You have to have equipment that can fire a lure all the way out there. Berkley Fireline helps with this.

I went to my favorite spot, gate 8, and walked the 3/4 miles path to get to the water. The local reservoir management department was doing some serious logging in the area:

Got wood?

When you go to Wachusett you are not going to catch many fish, but the ones you do catch tend to be big. Huge. I have seen 8 pound smallmouth swimming in years past. My personal best was a jaw-dropping 6 plus pounder back in 2003 I think. I have pictures, but they are actual pictures as in old school film developing! Maybe I can scan them.

Here is a picture looking out along the bank (click for larger and better view!):

The other direction, some people were fishing the big sandbar:

So how did I do? I caught one small fish (no picture) and was leaning towards packing it in. I saw some kind of mash up going on along the bank about 50 yards from where I was fishing, so I moved my butt on over there. I saw huge swirls in the water along with a bunch of minnows jumping out of the water for dear life. I knew there had to be a big boy around. I threw my black 5 inch Senko out, and as soon as it hit the water it was grabbed and taken. I reeled in the slack line and pulled back, BIG FISH!!!!

After some aerial moves and a great fight, I landed this big smallmouth bass. I would say it was 4.5 pounds, a really nice fish:

That is my small tackle box and my new SMART PHONE in the picture for some scale. It stinks taking fish pictures by yourself, but here is another shot:

So pretty.

The fish was released withing 1 minute and swam away looking all pissed. I got you! It was a good day.

Market Operations
It is homework night, and I will update later if I like anything. Greek Debt drama should be fun this week. My number one pick from last week, BKH, would have been a 4% winner if I had bought some, ugh.

Have a good night.

Relief Rally in Any Case

Busy week at real work, busy week in the yard (more below), and busy week market watching. Add to that I am joining the bandwagon for the Champion Boston Bruins! I cannot lie, I don't really care about Hockey (not since Messier's Rangers won it all!), but now all the Boston teams have won titles while I was old enough to appreciate it. I guess that means 50 years with none. Yikes!

Market Observations and Places You Should See
Ok, this week has been brutal for market watchers. For the folks at home that do not follow the market (you are better off, lol) it has been hard for everyone. A few quick thoughts:
-I am not closing my positions in SH and PSQ until the S&P 500 closes over 1300, or under 1190. Makes this trade easy and non-emotional, a planned trade.
-The candles say today was a spinning top or indecision day. To me, indecision goes AGAINST the prior trend so tomorrow (which is options expiration!) should be a solid bull day. Be on watch for any "spike the market" rumors.
-For all the bears out there (where?) Barry Ritholtz has a great catch from Jim Bianco:

“In both normalized measurements, the present VIX reading is just over its trend curve. This is a market simply unwilling to acknowledge anything unusual might be underway.

As the spate of negative economic news and the largest one-day selloff since August 2010 have not been kept secret, we have to conclude one of two things: Either the options market is correct or option buyers have been blinded by, well, blind faith. It is quite possible the latest spate of negative news is simply one in a series of crises since March 2009 that have generated a great deal of excitement and then were buried in the next rally. For more than two years, the the bears have made the headlines and the bulls have made the money, much to the consternation of the bears.

Still, as noted in March, it would be better to see a rising VIX in such a situation. What never has changed and never can change are the mechanics of market-making; each purchase of protection in the put options market or in floating-rate receiving on variance swaps demands market makers sell ever-greater quantities of stock at ever lower prices to hedge. If the present complacence is incorrect, the subsequent adjustment will be harder and more violent than it would have been otherwise.”

Hate to snip that much, but very important.
-More on that angle? I talked about the margin debt vs. AAII bearish % last night and called baloney. Just makes no sense. Macro Story, who you should be stopping in on, went further in the discussion and had this post printed at Zero Hedge:
Guest Post: Sentiment Surveys Or Margin Debt Who Is Smarter?
Great item and here is the graph:

Author Tony notes:

The chart of debit margin balances versus the five week moving average of the AAII bullish sentiment readings. Notice how bullish views peaked five months before margin levels peaked in 2007. Similarly bullish views peaked in December 2010 (the moving average peaked in February 2011) while margin levels continue to rise through April. Considering the May 1,370 high subsequent margin data when available may very well show May as the peak in margin debt.

There is at least one possible explanation for this divergence. As sellers move out of the market, this historically contrarian indicator entices leveraged longs to increase the use of margin thus supporting prices. A negative feedback loop is in fact created causing markets to resist selling pressure.

Very interesting! Think about this.
-Favorite quote of the day, again via Zero Hedge re the Philly Fed index biggest collapse in some time:

And make no mistake: the downside 3 month momentum in the series at -51.10 is the worst ever: all those buying stocks in advance of more easing are completely forgetting that they will take major losses before the market is low enough to allow actual easing to proceed.

It has to get bad, and not in a wimpy relative sense, before the help arrives.

Relief
Ok, enough of all of that. A little relief rally of our own, a Friday night prelude?

Mystery Solved!
A while back I posted a camera capture picture of the deer that has been eating all the stuff in the birdfeeder, and in the background you could make out another creature that was hard to identify. Well this week I caught it!! Here is a somewhat iffy picture:

Removing all doubt, it is a COYOTE!:

Beat that Encyclopedia Brown!

Decepticons!
Somehow Josh Brown's site is relevant search terms wise for Decepticons. I don't get it, I write about robots like the Decepticons all the time. I have featured the Decepticon insignia many times. I have even included the epic battle between Optimus Prime and Decepticon leader Megatron:

Decepticon trickery!

Making it Happen
My friend Jennifer Hillier is going BIG TIME with a all new HARDCOVER novel, titled "Creep". Early reviews are fabulous (any doubt?) and you can see the author open her own novel here:
Ain't nothing like the real thing, baby!
For a person that harbors inspiration to write, this is so cool! What is better is that I will have 6 (six) copies that will be up for free in a contest when the book launches in July. No affiliation other than Jen is the bomb, I paid in full for all books.

Best Substitute Lines EVER!
My man Mark of Illusion of Prosperity pens this cover of legendary Dio's "Holy Diver":

Holy fish heads!
They've been left too long in the sun midweek
Smell what's beginning to reek

Taste the salmon
You can touch the scales that they tried to clean
You don't want to eat what's green

Gotta sell today
Holy fish heads!

Hardly tasty
There are salmon eyes in the fish head stew
Something they brewed just for you

Race for the toilet
You can stay on the pot 'til the morning light
Oh we will pray you're all right

Gotta sell today, sell today

Click over for the rest!

Funny Until I thought About It
From the new site The Echo Boom Blog, comes this snippet that was funny until I thought about it:

According to a study, younger Echo Boomers seem to perceive debt as a positive circumstance:
Researchers found that the more credit card and college loan debt held by young adults aged 18 to 27, the higher their self-esteem and the more they felt like they were in control of their lives. The effect was strongest among those in the lowest economic class.
Only the oldest of those studied -- those aged 28 to 34 -- began showing signs of stress about the money they owed.

Funny until you figure out nothing could be further from the truth.

Have a good night.

Enough Talk

I wanted to say thanks to The Fly for taking a look at my blog yesterday, along with about 20 others. At first I was sort of pissed at my review, but when I thought about it, it made sense. I do use an old Blogger template, and I do populate the site with pictures of weird stuff. I do blog for fun, I have a day job, and I do enjoy this very much. I am all over the road, I like to discuss plenty of things not directly finance. All in all I was glad he stopped in.

Enough Talk
Well I did not figure to talk about a strategy for weeks and then take a pass!

This morning I opened positions in both SH (S&P Short Fund) and PSQ (Nasdaq Short Fund). The market was about even and I figured a later day sell off might happen so I pulled the trigger. The S&P closed right under my target entry area of 1280. To be fair, I wanted a rally back to 1300 to open these positions, but it never shaped up this week. It still may by weeks end, but I felt like it was time to go on this one.

What is great about this trade is there are clear places to walk away. If the S&P breaks back over 1300 and holds, that would be step one out the door. A close over 1330 is step two (should leave) and if we arrive back at 1360, it's a busted trade without too much damage done. Otherwise it is in play along the new trendline down to the 1180-1190 area I have targeted.

Have a good night.

Tuesday Chart

It was 80 degrees here today, but after all the rain we had is was super muggy and heavy. Felt sort of sticky.

Today is loyal reader Gawains' Birthday! Happy birthday sir! I hope you are having some fun.

Tuesday Chart
On Sunday night during homework I came across over 50 stocks that showed up on my screens in the PPT. usually I am screening for names that are showing a hybrid oversold condition, and they may be technical oversold as well. After a few down days you sometimes get a bunch of names and after a run up maybe you may get 2-4 names. I run a few different screens using other watched items like unusual volume or news events. In the end I put together a list and run through the charts to see if anything looks good.

One stock that came up as both hybrid oversold and had a very large volume score was Furiex Pharmaceuticals (FURX). On Friday the stock showed volume that was far and away larger than anything since last July. The stock printed an inverted hammer candle on Friday, which can be a reversal pattern if a downtrend has been in place. I liked the look of the stock and I have no idea about the company at all (can be hard because I work in the industry) so I put it on watch.

Candlestick work is not a 100% guaranteed kind of thing, more a of a guide and a trigger alert. On Monday with the general stock market getting hammered, FURX made a nice continuation candle with another small move up. This served as confirmation for me to think a buy was a good percentage play. I put in my order last night and it was filled this morning at $14.18. FURX closed today at $15.14 for a solid 6% move up. Here is my annotated chart for FURX (click for larger view):

Sometimes things work out. I probably should have sold to lock in a nice win, but this could have some more room to run, maybe to $15.50. We shall see.

Hockey Time?
I am not really into Hockey, but the Boston Bruins are a game away from going to the Big Show. Last night goaltender Tim Thomas made a save that was spectacular (hat tip Kid Dynamite):

WOW!

The last time I watched hockey it was for Mark Messier's Rangers beating Pavel Bure's Canucks in 7 games for the Cup way back in the day (1994). Good luck Bruins!

Have a good night.

This and That

I am not sure where the time is going this week, but I am short on it again!

Market Operations
I made some buys this morning:
-OCLR
-LF
-WNR (I know, again?!)
-SOFO
Will see how it goes.

Villains Answers
Reader David was pretty close! The rundown:
1. Anton Chigurh (No Country for Old Men)
2. Grand Moff Tarkin (Star Wars)
3. Sho'Nuff (The Last Dragon)
4. Christine (Christine)
5. Leo Balmudo (Grease)
6. Rexor (Conan the Barbarian)
7. Colonel Strelnikov (Red Dawn)
8. Nurse Ratched (One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest)
9. The Kurgan (Highlander)
10. Johnny (The Karate Kid) and Chong Li (Bloodsport)
11. Master Vampire Barlow (Salem's Lot)
12. Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Fun stuff.

Great Trading Posts
Greg Harmon runs the site Dragonfly Capital and I now stop in there every day. Mr. Harmon has skills across all kinds of charting and trading styles, one can learn a lot by reading his posts.

Here are two well worth a look:
Four Guys Walk up to a Copper Mine Field…
How about looking at copper through:
-Point and Figure Charts
-The way cool Andrew's Pitchfork
-Elliot Wave
-Fibonacci
Amazing.

A fun post is:
Picking The Car Company That Fits Your Style
Depending on if you are a daytrader, swing trader, or a position trader Mr. Harmon has a car company for you!

Robotic Baby!
To make you more of a mind to accept your robotic overlords, they are now making robotic babies! We get closer every day:

Full story:
Japanese university can’t stop building robotic babies

Have a good night.

Pantheon of Villains

I got a late start tonight so not much high quality content from me!

Market Operations
I noted last night that my screens turned up a few stocks I liked. I am still thinking and reviewing the latest candles tonight. I still like OCLR, LF and SOFO but ZLCS took a beating today and this changes the outlook. I am leery of SOFO as well as I did not notice how small the company was and it only trades around 8000 shares a day. Low float names can rip your face off in a hurry. Still like the chart though, could go a half position on this. Will update later.

Pantheon of Villains
How come the bad guys are more fun? Test your villain IQ with this pictorial test.

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8.


9.


10. A double



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12.


Have at it! No prizes this time save for a shout out on the blog. In July I will have a harder contest where you can win your own copy of my friend Jennifer Hillier's upcoming novel, CREEP! You can see the just released cover art here.

Have a good night.

Flanking Maneuver

Very nice weekend here, Spring had arrived.

Bass Pro Shops Haul
Stopped in at Bass Pro Shops Saturday and it was like being in a toy store for fishermen! So much stuff, I was getting a bit dizzy.

Luckily they had a complete Yamamoto lure section, so I stocked up on the best lure ever invented, the Senko! Here is the haul:

Got a nice Shimano reel for $29.95 as well! Maybe next weekend I will head out to catch some fish.

Flanking Maneuver
Had some nice flank steak in Antigua so I thought I would give it a go on The Big Steel Keg.

I bought a package of flank steak and I tried out a new marinade, Allegro, which looked good at the store:


I cut the steak into strips and then hammered the crap out of them with a mallet. This thins them out nice. Yes, I was beating the meat:


The Mom in Law does not like marinaded steaks, so I grabbed a few small tenderloins as well. Asparagus tops rounded out the pre-cook line up:


Everything was pretty good. Here are the flank steak strips almost done:

I forgot to grab a picture of the dinner plate.

I like the marinade but it was just a touch too salty. Never know until you try.

Market Operations
Homework night as I try to find some ideas for stock positions. Will update later if I like anything.

Added:
I like OCLR, ZLCS, SOFO, and LF here.

Have a good night.

Friday at Last

Was this week enough for you all? A bit crazy for a week back from vacation! Heading down to the huge Bass Pro Shops in Foxboro Massachusetts tomorrow to gear up for fishing season! I am so excited.

Odds and Ends
I have not been doing any "Market Operations" posts for a while. There are a few reasons for that. One, most of my positions over the last 3 weeks have been ideas garnered from the iBankCoin 12631 service and thus I don't think it is right to hand out ideas found and worked on there. Second, most positions went no where and were either quick stop out losses for about 3% each or minimal gains when charts turned on the spots. Not much to report really. Third, I did two major mistakes over just the past 3 weeks that I was not too happy about and I was a bit ashamed to write about them. I guess I will tonight as a sort of confession.

The first blunder was I hung a position on the stock WNR (Western Refining) based on the belief that crack spreads being wide would result in big profits. I like the idea but the charts and the market were telling me it was a dumb buy. In around the $17.70 I rode that thing into earnings this week and it sucked. Sold out at $15.50 for a nasty loss. I let an idea get ahead of the technicals which is what I was trying to stick too. Poor discipline and poor execution. Ugh.

The second blunder was after a few losses last month and a bunch of stop outs for annoying small losses, I played a hunch. Big time. I have written before about the stock KCG (Knight Capital Group). I figured all the market churn from last quarter would be very good for their earnings report on April 20. I had plenty of open spots in my trading account, so I did what I should do, put 60% of the whole thing on one stock! Great going and a great way to go bust in a hurry. In after the Monday April 18 nasty sell off and sold late week for a nice gain. It worked out but it was stupid beyond belief.

Now that I am more settled in I will try to get back to doing things right next week.

Ok, let's get to Friday night, been a long week!

Friday Night Entertainment
Sharing the fun on Friday night.

StealthCopter
By now you may have seen some pictures of the wrecked helicopter used in the raid to get Bin Laden. Geekologie has some info on the heavily modified H-60 Blackhawk:

See, the tin foil hat types are right, there are black, silent helicopters!

Top 10 Old School TV Shows
I don't watch TV anymore, but I used to watch everything and anything, hence my preternatural ability to find quotes for any occasion. I guess one could say about me that I have "A sleepless mind in his heart, and an insatiable personality" if you have read "Memnoch the Devil". In any case, I posted a clip from the series "Different Strokes" last night and reader David chimed in with a "Facts of Life" reference. This got me thinking about old TV shows I loved. Here are my top 10 oldies, in no particular order except the number one spot which was my favorite:
1.- Moonlighting
2.- LA Law
3.- Hunter
4.- Good Times
5.- Silver Spoons
6.- Battlestar Galactica
7.- V
8.- Facts of Life
9.- Dukes of Hazzard
10.- Happy Days
I encourage all to make their own list and send it back here for discussion!

Picture Pages
Picture pages, pictures pages, time to get your markers and your pencils! Not really.

For Mothers Day!:

see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!

Here is this woman trying to help poor South American children and then.....:

see more This is Photobomb
Like bunnies, but dogs.

Rock Blogging
Tunes for the weekend.

Reader Watchtower requested Queen's "Who Wants to Live Forever" and he even found a great live version:

EPIC FIND!!! Thanks Watchtower!

Ok, my friend JH was looking for some old school hip hop, but it's not quite my area. I will go with my favorite song of the genre, from that era. Classic Snoop with "G-Thang":

I was going to play SNAP The Power, but I just could not do it :)

In 1991 Ozzy had a new album out and I was thinking "he should hang it up!". Then I heard the opening bass line from "No More Tears" and knew the true Master of Metal was doing just fine:

This man IS metal.

The last time I played "Girls Just Want to Have Fun" the post had 34 comments and a great discussion with all kinds of readers. Can we re-create magic? Who know, give Cindy Lauper a chance:

I can admit I love that tune because I am a boxer and will beat you up.

Last two tunes, it does have to end, everything that has an beginning has an end.

Live performance of "I am the Highway" by my lost, but beloved Audioslave:

I would trade a number of silver ounces to have heard that tune live.

Last call!

I am going with Cinderella's classic "Nobody's Fool":

Love it.

Have a good night.

Linkfest for Tuesday

Starting a bit late after dinner clean up and lunch preparation took longer than usual. Don't ask. As such it will be a link fest!

Market Operations
I am going on vacation the last week this month so I was going to go to all cash before I left. As I took a few hits the past few days it seems like a good time as well! I am out of everything except my stop was missed in PAAS so I still have it and I am holding a position in WNR as well.

Links
Where else are you going to get tales of Maple Syrup production, Cigarette Arbitrage, the low down on ETF', Silver coverage, and Toilet Replacement drama? Only one place friends:
Kid Dynamite - Content is King

The Downtown Man himself, Farmer Brown angles a question in an interesting way today. It would be worth your time to think how you would answer and what that may mean for the long term, big picture:
The False Hope of Higher Prices

Like we did not know:
Big banks are government-backed: Fed's Hoenig

Fans of alternate history type thinking may find this one really fun:
Would a Soviet Moon landing have forced the US to go to Mars?

Have a good night.

The Week Ahead

It did not get up to 80 degrees here today, but it was a solid 70 degree plus. It was like the entire area came alive as kids were all out playing, people were walking around, and yard work was going on big time. I am still a bit too sore for yard work, at least that is my excuse, so maybe next weekend. Really got the fishing bug today as well.

Old Find
Way back in 1997 when Economic Disconnect was still young, I wrote a long item of prose that I always was pretty fond of. I always loved English classes and luckily I had a bunch of good teachers through High School and College that pointed out cool writings. I loved the Edgar Lee Masters' "Spoon River Anthology" series and Edward Arlington Robinson's works like "Miniver Cheevy". Throw in a real liking for Old English type epic poems (think Beowulf) and I had an idea as to what I wanted to create.

I ran across the old notebook I wrote it in recently (no computer for me back then) and it brought back the memory of the work. I am placing it here more for me, but if you get a kick out of it that's cool too. Reading it again I think I may have been a little too drama heavy with it, but what can you do. It is long so if you are not into this kind of thing, skip on down for for regular type content:

When I Spoke With Death
It wasn’t long ago I was upon that towering hill;
The clouds were thick, the winds were strong, then all came very still.
A flash of lightning seemed me very strange accompanied by no thunder;
And then I saw a figure in black that could have been no other.

He walked towards me in sullen grace, but made no sound at all;
Cloaked in black with a wide rimmed hat, He seemed me very tall.
He stopped but just before me and fixed His gaze on me;
That’s when I saw those wicked eyes, black like night time seas.

And when He spoke His words were light, and in a whispers tone;
He said “My friend you’ll come with me and I will take you home.”
And then I knew that it was Death that came to take my hand;
But so lost was my soul, I cared not to make a stand.

I said to Him “I’ll come with you, for there’s nothing for me here”;
“I’ve lost my strength, my hope, my dreams and so I have no fear.”
The dark God seemed to ponder this, and after some time he said;
“Explain to me why you are so calm to walk among the dead.”

And now it was I who paused, not sure how to begin;
Then I chose to tell Him of my only true love’s end.
I said to Him how all was lost to lies and to betrayal;
I had tried so hard and gave so much, and all to no avail.

I told Him the pain and grief of my fathers shameful death;
And how all those dear to me turned their backs, and now I’ve nothing left.
And all through this He seemed to know, to even understand;
All the pain and loss I felt piled like the beaches sand.

Another pause, and then His whisper came into my ear;
“I have never come for someone who did not show me fear”;
“Proud warriors have fallen on their knees and begged me just to leave”;
“High priests and Kings have more than often taken time to grieve.”

And after I simply said, and in a gracious way;
“But all those men had hopes and dreams for which they’d want to stay”;
‘To leave this world for what’s unknown is not a terrible grave”
“To stay with nothing or go to something, the decision has been made.”

Again a pause as He considered the words that I had said;
And after a while His quiet whisper came to me again;
“Hell is hot, it burns with flames of naked hate and anger”;
“All the spirits there mourn their lives taken by this Stranger.”

“If I were to take you back with me, through the gates of old”;
“Hell could change thereafter, chilled by your freezing soul.”
“And what would come of Hell, if all there knew to let go?”
“There’d be no heat, no cries of grief, those things that mean the most.”

“I will leave you here, tired man, and hope you can restore”;
“Some light unto your life, your soul, so you’d want to stay some more.”
And after that I heard thunder clap, and the figure was no more;
And there was no lightning this time, of that I am sure.

That was the night I spoke with Death and even He reject me;
And so no relief is given up, and I go through life sadly.
But what a trick I’ve given myself, because if I am ever happy;
Death may come yet once again, and just to take it from me.
I still like it.

Icy Balls
Looking for a new stock to go way long on? This one may well be a good idea, Ice Ball Mold! It is exactly what you would think, perfect ice spheres! Every bar in the US will have to have this because it is way too cool. Get it, cool, ice, nevermind. Here is a video of the machine in action:

I want a drink with an ice ball!

1338 is the New 867-5308
The excellent gtotoy notes that the S&P level of 1338 has become a recurring theme which we should see once again this week. Being a smart ass, I quipped that 1338 is the new 867-5309:

NICE! If I was on Twitter I would tweet that line for hours.

Market Operations
When is the next trading week ever not going to be termed "interesting"?

Current Long Positions
SA
CEF
PAAS
AUY
BECN
TRCR
WNR
At this point the gold/silver miner names are breaking out. Monday may well be a bit ugly for PAAS. After a huge 8% plus move I expect it to come off a bit. It has plenty of room to move and still qualify the breakout pattern. TRCR is weak right now and I may be looking to exit that one if it does not pick up. I am down quite a bit on WNR (4%) so I am using that as an example of how moving out of what I am comfortable with can bite me. The chart does not look good at all, but I figured the fundamental look on it was solid. The market does not seem to agree and how long one wants to fight that is for everyone to decide. For me, I may be out tomorrow, too many other good looking names to stick with a position that is not working.

I have to do homework tonight and will update any new ideas or setups I am looking at. Any that are my own that is.

Have a good night.

Humor Break

I am having a mental block on things to write about! I know, me lost for words? Bizarre. Anyways, some market operation news and some humor for Tuesday.

Market Operations
I think I have been preoccupied with staking out positions to think of other stuff. Nothing is ever easy. Plenty of good looking setups out there.

I have 8 open positions right now, but two are direct takes from the red hot chessNwine over at iBankCoin. Those spots are his ideas so I will not post them here. I like both, and there are plenty of others in the 12631 section of the PPT.

Anyways, here is where I am:
Monday Buys
SA
NCT
CEF
I am looking at NCT for a quick bounce, but it is really lagging here and I may exit tomorrow. Too many other things are moving to wait on this one.

Tuesday Buys
CAB
PAAS
TRCR
So far things look ok. I still have a couple spots open so who knows, I may deploy the whole lot.

iPhone Auto-Correct
This cracked me up today, via Daily Cognition:





There are a few more at the link above.

Have a good night.