Japan News As I had feared, the more time goes by the worse the news out of Japan gets. The earthquake was upgraded to a full 9.0 and data shows the main island of Japan moved 8feet and the axial tilt of the Earth may have been changed by 4 inches. The power involved in such a thing cannot be grasped in any reasonable way.
For a visual aid, here is an old picture (found at this site) which shows a fence that was moved 8 feet during an earthquake near the San Andreas fault in California in 1906: Almost unbelievable.
Of course it was not long before some Keynesian asshole had to go ahead and try to paint a terrifying tragedy as a way to stimulate an economy(via Mish). One has to think Keynesians would support firebombing entire cities to foster growth they are so stupid it hurts to even have to deal with them:
“This is a Keynesian stimulus program that nobody can argue with: just rebuilding the city of Sendai,” said Marcus Noland, deputy director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, co-author of the 2001 book “No More Bashing: Building a New Japan-United States Economic Relationship.” “Rebuilding Sendai could actually be an opportunity to try to create a growth pole in northern Japan.”
Makes me sick.
Stoneleigh of The Automatic Earth has experience in the nuclear safety area and so if you want a full run down on what to be thinking about concerning the nuclear issues facing Japan (and by extension the environment) please stop on over and read today's piece: How Black is the Japanese Nuclear Swan? Thanks TAE!
Economics of the Disaster Reader Gawains had a comment that was right in line with what I was thinking over the weekend:
This will have a serious impact on financial markets. The yen is a widely circulated currency. Now it's going to have to come home to finance the rebuilding effort. Japan, which is the second largest holder of US treasuries, will probably have to start selling them in order to raise capital. That will have a profound effect on the US economy, and interest rates will necessarily rise. I happen to think they're been too low for too long, but a forced increase is going to cause major disruptions in the markets.
I may differ with Gawains as I do not think Japan will have to sell Treasuries. They are serial money printers and will issue debt, not raise cash via sales. I could be wrong. What will happen is that Japan will need to crank up funding and this will compete with US debt sales as well. There is only so much liquidity out there and massive debt sales by Japan and our own will strain things a bit.
I penned an article last week showing why Quantitative Easing 3.0 was on the way, and I mentioned that time scales would be compressed. Well ramp that up. The FED will have to continue their buys of paper now, it is almost a sure thing. What will be interesting is that I was thinking the FED would move to municipal debt, mortgage paper (again) and maybe some other junk bonds, but now US Treasuries may be where it is at by necessity. What a mess. Maybe Bill Gross is throwing things at walls this weekend after dumping all of is treasuries?
I have no idea what the short term effect on the gold/silver complex will be. Longer term it seems very favorable as the expansion of paper promises for debt will explode going forward: -Japan need big money -The USA needs huge money -Europe need big money for the rapidly deteriorating debt situation there That's a lot of paper coming online.
I have a few plans for trades this week but I am not going to write about them as they were not my own, I am mooching off of chessNwine! I am working up some ideas I had tonight and will update later if need be.
Monday is always 10 times harder after a crushing defeat for your football team! I guess it could be worse, I could be a Raider fan. I will accept a Miami Dolphins victory against the NY Jets tonight as a consolation prize.
Delaying Tactics on Condominiums Runs Out of Time? I came across the item from the always great Housing Doom site. It seems the FHA is seeing loan losses in the condo market that are bad enough to scare them out of making loans in that market. I think we should all be very scared that they are holding many loans like this right now.
Phoenix Condo Market Given a "Death Sentence" The new restrictions won’t directly affect high-end, luxury condos that sell for more than the Federal Housing Administration’s roughly $350,000 lending limit, but Hoogendyk said FHA loans are by far the most commonly used loan among condo buyers. Without that option, buyers would have to obtain conventional loans, which are more expensive and difficult to qualify for, or they would have to pay cash. Hoogendyk said the FHA rules amount to a death sentence for the Phoenix-area condo market, which had only been kept on life support by the continued availability of FHA loans.
The whole article is worth a read.
British Government are not "Idiots" I spend plenty of time bemoaning the lack of sustainable economic policy here in the United States. Of course, the USA is not alone in their Keynesian journey to wonderland. The United Kingdom has long been on the fast track to bankruptcy and they are looking to take the next step very soon.
In an effort to raise capital, the British government is looking to sell off some public assets:
Britain sells off public assets to boost finances Britain holds public asset fire sale as PM Brown warns that recession not yet over LONDON (AP) -- The British government is holding a fire sale of public assets including the undersea Channel rail link to raise 16 billion pounds ($25 billion) as Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned on Monday that the country is "only halfway there" in overcoming the recession.
The sale of assets, which also includes the government's 33 percent stake in European uranium consortium Urenco, spearheads the ruling Labour Party's attempt to boost its economic credentials as it loses ground to the opposition Conservative Party ahead of next year's general election.
Brown has maintained that the government must continue to spend its way out of recession, in contrast to the Conservatives' position that spending cuts are necessary to prevent a blowout in the public finances and turn the economy around.
The asset sales will allow the government to raise money to pay down the public debt and the budget deficit -- the gap between spending and revenues. With Britain in the middle of its worst recession in decades, public borrowing is forecast to reach a record 175 billion pounds next year.
Brown said that it was essential to continue fiscal stimulus alongside reducing the deficit.
I have to admit, this guy rivals Greenspan and Bernanke with his own "FED-Speak". It seems ingrained that spending oneself out of recession is the only policy that can be tried, nothing else need be considered. Good luck on reducing deficits while expanding stimulus. More fun a bit later in the piece:
Nonfinancial assets to be sold over the next two years include the Channel Tunnel rail link, the Dartford bridge and tunnel crossing the River Thames and betting company the Tote.
Local governments will sell off another 13 billion pounds ($21 billion) in assets such as business parks and leisure centers.
The Liberal Democrat party, the secondary opposition in Britain, said the asset sales made sense in principle, but criticized the timing.
An earlier government attempt to sell off the Tote was abandoned after it failed to attract a high enough price.
"Attempts to sell off large amounts of government land into a very depressed market such as we have now would be frankly barmy," said Liberal Democrat economy spokesman Vince Cable. "These asset sales should be based on a financial calculation, not a political one."
Business Secretary Peter Mandelson rejected the criticism, saying the market "is looking up."
"Of course we're not going to sell at the bottom of the market ... we're not idiots," he told Sky News.
Leaving aside the question as to who would want to buy all this stuff, lets take a closer look at the British record on selling assets.
While Peter Mandelson is sure he and his ilk are not "idiots", his boss Gordon Brown has plenty of experience with selling assets at the best possible time and price. Namely, he was the force behind the UK selling half of their entire gold reserves in 1999-2000. This amounted to about 400 tons of the shiny stuff. As a visual picture for the wise and well timed sale, please consider the following graph of the gold spot price: Heck of a job Brownie!
Rare (Presumed Extinct) Creature Sighting I have a rare treat for the readers today. After setting up motion detecting night vision cameras, laying out bait in the form of common sense, and waiting patiently even in the face of despair, Economic Disconnect can report to you tonight that we have proof of one of the rarest, most reclusive creatures hoped to still exist. Rumors of their extinction were not true, I present a FED official that actually makes sense! I know, you don't believe me, but take a look (via Clusterstock):
Fed Governor Slams Krugman's "Output Gap" Argument Paul Krugman has been a major proponent of the idea that since the economy is facing a so-called output gap, then we needn't worry about inflation. Basically, since we have so many idle workers and factories, there's really no chance we could overheat, face supply constraints, and thus cause prices to spike. So, we might as well keep printing.
Reuters' Rolfe Winkler points to a presentation given by the Fed's James Bullard that's clearly a direct rebuttal to Krugman. The argument is pretty simple and intuitive: When you're coming off of a bubble, the previous full potential of the economy is nothing that could be considered sustainable or re-achievable.
I about fell out of my chair this morning when I read that opening. Long time readers will note that I have been making this argument for a long time. From Mr. Bullard:
“It has been popular to describe recent events as a collapse of a bubble in housing. A look at the housing data makes a convincing case,” Bullard said. “But when it comes to calculating traditional output gaps, there is no notion of a bubble. If part or most of the fall in output was a collapsed bubble, then today’s output gap would be smaller than it appears.” This would mean that inflation risks in the medium term are higher than otherwise thought.
A man sits at a bar, and strikes up a conversation with the fellow next to him. He discovers the stranger is an economist, which delights the man, as he has a business quandary he needs help with. The man offers the economist a beer in exchange for advice on his current endeavor. The man asks "I am thinking about building this huge mall, that will sit vacant because business is so bad, but I just thought why not? Do you think this makes sense?. What do you think?" To this the economist answers "I really cannot advise you on that at all, I have no opinion." The man, a little put off, asks the economist "How can you have no opinion! I need to do this to save my company! How can it be done?" At this the economist perks up and answers "My dear sir, you did not ask my why at first, but now you are asking me how, and on that I can greatly advise!".
Yes, very simplified, but still true to the core.
Ask an economist today about the "output gap" or the unemployment rate, and they will effuse mountains of words describing how to restore the old "normal". Ask them if the old normal is sustainable, or if it was a gross application of capital, and all you get is a shrug.
It seems there is one FED Governor that thinks like I do. Surely he will be fired very soon.
All kidding aside, there is a monstrous blind spot for economists (Keynesian ones mainly) about what is quality capital application, sustainable growth, and mania cycles (bubbles).
The basic refrain of an economist today is "The house is burning so we cannot argue principles, we must save the house!". This is a non starter. If it is the stated goal to enforce economic activity on par with the tops of asset (credit, stock, housing, etc) bubbles then you are not contributing anything of substance, merely providing a mechanism for an end result. It is the total lack of substance that upsets me when consider the policy desires of Keynesian clowns like Paul Krugman.
Can Mr Krugman answer in a Yes/No fashion the following question: -At the height of the housing bubble, housing "output" was X. We have seen that this was clearly not sustainable, and even worse, dangerous. Should we attempt to bring housing output back to X? Yes or No.
Of course you are likely to get some kind of pie in the spending sky answer like: -We should maintain housing output at .25X while at the same time making up the difference through government spending to reach output X until the economy magically resumes growth at that level all by itself, then we just unwind all the excess money. Got it? Great, let get a taco!
Hats off to my new hero, FED Governor James Bullard.
Friday Follow Up I have very few selections for the Friday night video fight feature I wanted to present. Get involved and make a nomination!
One of the musical selections was the Thurston Harris tune "Little Bitty Pretty One" and there was a bonus trivia question related to the song. With no takers, here is the scene from the horror film "Christine" where the song is played:
