Technical Difficulties

Another Monday, I don't like them. Still, was a better Monday than usual.

Drive Profits Like You Stole Them
I always do most of my screening and chart work on Sundays to get ready for the week ahead. For shorter term trades I try and stick to a one week time frame. In the iBC trading room, the 12631, I work out ideas and post charts for discussion. Last night I had over 8 real candidates. The soft open today kept most of them from moving, but soon after the open one name was looking good and it was not even a pick of mine.

Sunday night I checked out Art of Tradings Trader Stewie's post:
10 New Setups To Watch Next Week
All nice looks but one stood out to me big time, ROVI. This chart just looked explosive. Here is my work up:

I was in this morning early as this stock stabilized fast. Then it took off. Hard.

I was trying to sell in the afternoon but my smart phone kept acting up and freezing. Was not a great feeling. I got it pushed through and closed the trade with a 5% gain for the day. Looking at the chart I would revisit this name with a close over $35, this could be a big runner.
(You can follow Stewie on Twitter; @Traderstewie)

Technical Difficulties
The open was pretty messy today but you had to figure it was going to get bought. I had a bunch of names to think about opening spots in, but they were hanging around and there seemed to be no hurry. Add to that I had a hot runner from the position above and technical difficulties with my phone all day and I mostly did nothing.

And that's fine.

As long as the market stops being a freak show of insanity, there is always plenty of time to trade. I have been banging the table for a few weeks about individual names performing better than they have in a while. Even Josh Brown was on CNBC (first clip in this series) talking about the same thing:
Media: Set-Up City

One name I like (it has SEX in the ticker!) is MSEX and it's still looking ready to roll:

I have plenty more.

It is still a favorable tape that will reward solid homework and set-up hunting. Until I see the names and set ups I am watching start to fail overall in large numbers, I will keep a lack of interest in broad market moves.

Have a good night.

Headlines That Change

A little short on time this evening as the drive home was a bit long. On a solid personal note, I was informed by the boss today that for the year end review I am getting a promotion! Good stuff. I have done a ton or work this year, so I am glad.

Market Dips Below Retest Levels; Well Some Retest Level Anyway
By now, you the readers, know of my hatred of technical analysis and especially for all the catch phrases some market players like to use to try and make sense of things that make no sense. Terms like "retest" and "head and shoulders" especially get me rankled.

So today the DOW and S&P fell below the much celebrated lows that were successfully retested last week or something. So that is bad right? That means new lows and the retest last week was bunk?

Nope. The charty types now mean that crazy intraday low from a while back where the DOW kissed near 7800. That is what they really meant. The 8100-8200 area was a "false low" masked by volatility or something.

I bring this up because a ton of people I know, and many I respect, love talking about the markets in these terms. While I use charts myself, I use them for long term trend watching as well as historical action. Trying to say "8153 on the DOW is the ultimate low" is like trying to guess the correct interest rate the FED should be at: A waste of their time and mine.

Auto Bailout a No Go if Democrats Have to do it Themselves
So you think everything is going to change just because Mr. Bush is gone? You think now that the Dems are in control we are looking at politics by other means? From Yahoo Finance:
Senate cancels vote on doomed auto bailout

WASHINGTON – The Senate's top Democrat has called off a planned vote this week on a $25 billion auto industry bailout. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that he wanted to figure out some way to help Detroit's struggling Big Three but that efforts to do so had stalled.
The White House and congressional Republicans rejected Democrats' plan to dip into the $700 billion Wall Street rescue fund to finance loans to U.S. automakers.

So the republicans (some of them, nowhere near all of them) are balking? The lame duck White House is not in love with the idea? So what? If this is the right thing to do, then make a vote. Get everyone on record, yeah or nay. What is the problem?

Simple, as always. The TARP was dogshit that the public did not want. The auto maker bailout is even more crap that the public has said NO to. While this is nice, the Congress does not care. If the auto bailout had huge support like the TARP did it would go through. But the craven democrats do not want anything to bite them, surely not another bailout with serious opposition. So no vote. New politics, same as the old. Weak and scared politicians (either side) unable to do what is right, only what is politically possible. Remember the big debate Bush promised about the "Flat Tax" if he beat Kerry in 2004? Remember the debate? Of course you don't, it never happened because the opposition was too high. Note: I am against all bailouts, but if the Dems think it is for the best, they should go for it.

Headlines That Change
Saw a strange thing today on Yahoo Finance. After the FED had given their forecasts, you the ones that have been so spot on up to now, Yahoo had this headline up:
AP
Fed sharply lowers forecasts, hints of rate cut

Later in the day when the selling got heavy, the lead headline became:
AP
Fed sharply lowers economic forecasts for this year, 2009; signals another rate cut coming

And then later tonight, an amalgam of the two:
AP
AP
Fed sharply lowers forecasts, hints of rate cutWednesday November 19, 3:13 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed sharply lowers economic forecasts for this year, 2009; signals another rate cut coming

Now I am not proposing that there was anything sinister going on here. I am just pointing out that the good old game of "hint of a rate cut" was changed to "rate cut coming". Take from this what you want, I just found it interesting.

As far as rate cuts go, what is the point. The effective FED rate is 0% right now, and they only have 100bps left anyway. I guess they could keep going for the hope of getting a bump, but I do not think that will fly.

What will the FED do? One cut of 100bps? Two 50bps? Four 25bps? I have no idea and it does not matter. Well, I take that back because it matters as it is the new poll question! Please vote on what you think Bernanke should do with his last 100bps of credibility!

Have a good night.